Diary of a campaign Nov 1st, 2024, to April 30th, 2025.
Week 1
Bet 1
Molten Sea Musselburgh 6th November 2024 – Going Good to soft
2m Handicap 3yo + Trainer William Haggas Jockey Callum Rodriguez
WIN BET Result WON
The Haggas record with handicappers at Musselburgh is well over 50% and basically can be backed blind to achieve a profit. That’s not how we bet the data is always backed up by a visual impression that clarifies the ability of the horse to back up the data.
We had backed this filly when ridden by Rodriguez his first ride for the yard , after having led she looked beat when overtaken 2 furlongs out but fought back inside the final furlong to win a shade cosily by a neck.
It was clear that a longer trip would suit but she was undoubtedly capable of further success. Her next run was at Southwell was during a time when all the stables AW runners were running way below form, and it was an easy decision to let her run unbacked at 9/4 favourite especially as she was running at the same trip of 12F
Next stop was Catterick on very soft ground up to !m 6f. Again, no bet was advised mainly due to a rule we have of avoiding bets at certain tracks on the flat when the ground turns very soft, subscribers will get the full list.
She ran well finishing a running on second despite appearing to hate the conditions.
Back at Musselburgh over 2m in an all-age handicap on good to soft ground with Rodriguez back on board , she was put into the market at 9/4. Given the yards outstanding record at the track this was a clear bet. The form of the Catterick race had also been well boosted, with the third winning impressively.
Backed into 7/4 the victory was never in doubt and she won cosily by just over 1L .
Given the right conditions Molten Sea may well improve possibly up to a mark of 80. She will race off 74 next time out and is one to keep on the right side.
Week 2
Bets no 2 and 3 and 4
Lingfield Park AW 13th November 2024.
Sea Theme – 1m 5f listed Race – William Haggas Billy Loughnane
Doom 1m – listed race – William Haggas – Rossa Ryan
TWO WIN BETS & EACH WAY DOUBLE Result WON – WON
Although the Haggas record in the two listed races at Lingfield that launch the AW winter season at the track was mentioned by the pre-race pundits. There was no detail, and the Hag Tag team were ready as soon as the markets opened. In the two races the Haggas runners that started 1,2,3 in the betting had won 9 from 13 races contested with other 4 being placed.
This year both horses entered were clear on official ratings , both were well drawn and with Marquand on holiday Rossa Ryan and Billy Loughnane were jocked up. We backed both at 9/4 and 4/1 and added a double.
Result Won Won
Both horses won very easily, and the Hag Tag pulled off one our biggest wins of the year
Bet 5
Taunton Jumps 14th November 2024
Gentleman Jacques 2m 7F Class 5 chase Emma Lavelle Harry Cobden
EW BET – RESULT 4th LOSER
Emma Lavelle has a fantastic record in chases at Taunton in the autumn and this 5yo one of six horses transferred to her by the owner from the Charlie Longsdon yard , looks every inch a chaser despite only running ok in the two runs for the yard. With Harry Cobden booked for his only ride at a track at which he by far the leading rider at 15/2 he is worth an each-way bet , albeit, in a field of 7.
RESULT 4th LOSER
Unfortunately, the 5yo hardly jumped a fence and struggled home in 4th and gave us our first losing bet with our first jumps bet of the campaign
Bet No 6
Cheltenham 15th November
Fosal – 2m Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham Paul Nicholls – Harry Cobden
EW BET 4 places 5/1 RESULT Placed
Paul Nicholls has had very few runners in the handicaps at the Paddy Power festival and even fewer 4- and 5-year-old novices.
Fosal came into the race on the back of just two runs over hurdles including a very promising run behind Be Aware on his debut rated just 117. We believe this race could be the start of a highly successful campaign , today may not be the day which is why we are going each way but the fact he starts in this handicap suggests he is ready to go, and the Nicholls team is happy with the 117 mark.
Result Placed 7/2
Getting our money back was great but this race could well be the start of a project that will throw up many future winners and form lines that will give us numerous opportunities.
Horses to follow from race in addition to Fosal
Wreckless Eric
Cavern Club
Balhamber
Clap of Thunder
Dream Escape
Belgoprince
Bet No 7 – 16th November
Dubai Honour 1m2f Listed race Newcastle William Haggas – Adam Farragher
Unlike the races three days earlier the Haggas team hasn’t targeted these two listed races even when they were run at Lingfield ( until 2022). They did win the Churchill stakes with Battalion in 2014 but several well backed horses have only been placed.
Dubai Honour is rated 118 well above average for the race but what is more significant is the low quality of opponents especially those with AW experience. We have no hesitation in recommending a bet at very generous odds of 9/4.
Result 2nd 6/4 LOSER
It is always easy to blame a jockey for a defeat but unfortunately Adam Farragher got in all kinds of trouble and Dubai Honour had his run blocked continuously from 3F out. Beaten 3L he finished full of running. That’s Racing we move on to Bet No 7
Bet no 8 – 16th November
Himsiyann 2m 5F Cheltenham Tony Martin Daniel King
Tony Martin has a deserved reputation for being able to land gambles at the top tracks. With his suspension ending on the 1st November we took a close look at his entries at this meeting. This 4yo novice running off a mark of 111 stands out. Already backed t odds of 5/1 , following the very unlucky defeat yesterday of stable companion Young Lucy we think the 3/1 still available is well worth a bet.
Result Won 2/1
Did the job with the minimum of fuss and won as expected .
Bet No 9 17th November
Burdett Road 5/1 2m Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham
Although Desert Enos is reported to be a good thing, but we doubt she could have run the great Kyprios to 7 lengths in a group 1 race on the flat. The 2lb she gets from Burdett Road especially on her first run since January is simply not off.
It is clear that Burdett Road has improved considerably on the flat and we expect Harry Cobden to be prominent throughout and outstay his rivals. The 5/1 5 places available makes the insurance of each way wager sensible
Result Won 5/1
A masterly ride by Cobden from the front and although the 2nd possibly should have won, I thought the winner found extra near the post. However, the run of Be Aware was immediate confirmation of our view that the Valda Energy Novice Handicap is a significant race to follow throughout the season.
Bet no 10 18th November
Fariha 7/1 to 5/2 7F Handicap Southwell William Haggas Shoemark
Backing Haggas trained horses on the AW is very dependent on the time of year. In the main season a majority of runners are for education purposes, and there are many opportunities to lay rather than back the horses. At one period of time in September and October the stable sent out 16 consecutive losing favourites on the AW.
Once November kicks in the emphasis changes and races are targeted especially with high rated horses and 3yo fillies and Fariha fits the profile. A win this evening off a mark of just 53 will vastly increase the paddock value of this well-bred filly.
The gamble kicked in at around 11.00am ( a very good sign) and continued through the morning.
She is a strong bet – we recommend ew which annoys some of our followers, but she can miss the break, and I always feel it’s worth the insurance, especially with the extra places being offered even though a small loss will occur if she gets beat.
Result Won 5/2
Once she broke reasonably well and got settled it was a question of how far and she won as she liked convincingly.
Bet No 11 19th November 2024
Coniston George 3.49 Carlisle Nicky Richards Danny McMenamin
Nicky Richards has a very good record at his local track and his course and distance winner Coniston Grove looks laid out to win this , The 6yo has won three times fresh off a break and comes here off 100+ days off the track. The stable won this race with Amberose in 2019 also fresh from a break. The horse is a grinder well suited to the uphill finish and soft ground. I expect the gelding to be up with the pace and battle to victory after the last . The price of 2/1 is a little bit tight but as this race will be the No 1 target for the season its worth a bet.
Result 2nd 85/40
The gelding was settled in mid division, further back than I anticipated however he came with the expected grinding run only to blunder at the last . He fought back to hit the front but got nabbed on the line and was beaten a neck That’s racing .
Bet 12 20th November 2024
Eavestone 8.00 Kempton Roger Varian Jack Mitchell
Jack Mitchell is our go to jockey for this winter’s AW campaign. He rides the tracks with great consistency and rarely disappoints. Roger Varian is also a trainer to follow. 5 out of the last 6 favourites have won. Eavestone’s maiden form behind Friendly Soul and Estrange is flattering and it is her last run and first win that makes her mark of 80 appealing. She was entitled to win that getting plenty of allowances, but she won as she liked and looked every inch a filly set to go up through the ranks over distances around 12f. The Appleby horses form is weak and it’s difficult to see Power of Destiny improving having made the move from Stoute to Beckett just this month. Any price above 13/8 is value I think she will win at around Evs.
Result 8th 7/4
Everything looked ok until 2F out. She sat just off an even pace and looked ready to quicken past the front runner, however , she was beat in a matter of strides and eventually was eased down finishing 8th of 8. Clearly something amiss but we factor in that 15% to 20% of our selections will run well below form – and this was one example.
Bet 13
22nd November 2024
Aurigny Mill 2.40 Ascot R Walford Kimber
Robert Walford rarely over rates his horses and Aurigny Mill is only his second runner in a handicap at Ascot the other finished second. This 7yo acquired following the retirement of Victor Dartnall came to the yard with a very solid profile and improved on that when bolting up at Newbury first time out by 10L. The 7lb rise is ok and the form of that race and several from last season looks rock solid. Henderson runs the short favourite, but this is hugely poor value on the formbook. Of course, he may improve but the 10-runner field offers great ew value with 7/1 available.
I expect the horse to be held up probably in last place and then work through the field to take it up between the final two flights or juts after the last.
Result 6th 5/1
Hold up horses come with risks and although visually impressive sometimes it can hide factors that only get revealed under pressure. That’s what happened today when the faller at the 2nd flight landed in front of him causing Harry Kimber to swerve to avoid being bought down. From that point the horse was reluctant to cooperate with the jockey and the race was lost.
Bet 14
23rd November 2024
Royal Pagelle 3.05 Haydock Venetia Williams – Charlie Deutsch
Friday was frustrating not only for the performance of our bet but for the decision not to get involved with Venetia Williams runners at Ascot. However, any doubts about the form of yard were banished and I expect Royal Pagelle providing the anticipated heavy rain arrives will go close to retaining his Betfair Gold Cup crown.
From my reading of the race, he is the only horse that will be suited by a 3m slog and with the yard in proven top form a lack of a previous run is no problem.
Back to win at 5/1 or anything better than 7/2.
Result Won 11/4-4/1
The race thanks to the weather turned out exactly as expected . Given a brilliant ride by Deutsch the horse repeated his victory of 12 months previous, toughing out as each challenger faulted. Brilliant training performance, this was his Gold Cup
Bet 15
23 November 2024
Martador 3.20 Ascot Venetia Williams – Charlie Deutsch
This horse fits the exact profile of a Williams improving chaser. His win at the last meeting was a bonus. On good ground and before the yard was in full swing , the drift in the market accurately forecast the expectations of victory. Despite that the horse taken wide throughout powered onto victory. With the likelihood of soft ground and Ned Fox taking 5Lb off , although this is a tougher race I see no reason that the 7yo will not continue its upward journey.
Result Won 13/8-5/2
Ned Fox was clearly told just do what Charlie did first time out . He did and because of softer ground and full fitness assured the horse bolted up unchallenged.
Bet 16 28 November 2024
Jackpot Des Bordes 12.45 Taunton
The Paul Nicholls 5yo had a very good NH flat campaign las season highlighted by a 2nd place just 1/2L behind the now 134 rated Celtic Dino. He started this campaign well beaten having jumped poorly in a good novice at Chepstow , the form of which has been well advertised.
The market has thrown up an anomaly with the early prices including a price for Tripoli Flyer who has been declared here despite winning easily 24 hours earlier. The horse is highly rated and there is no way it will turn under a penalty. However, it means we can get 9/2 about Jackpot des Bordes which will work out at 85/40 . I expect Jackpot to return nearer to Evens.
Result Won 11/8
Clearly still work in progress he was still very novicey ,jumped better but by no means well yet knuckled down on the run in to eventually win going away. He remains one to note
BET 17
28 November 2024
Dream Chaser 4.35 Thurles E Mullins – P Mullins
1pt ew 5/1 1-6 places Sky
Each way six places with Sky makes this a bet to nothing and a good test of the form we intend following in the race won by Wreckless Eric at Cheltenham/
Good ground seems important to the horse and the trainer jockey have a track record of sending a handicap hurdler the Cheltenham November meeting and then winning at Thurles.
The generous ew terms reduce the risk here in what is a wide-open race with a Charles Byrne entry Brave Troop running for the yard for the first time.
Result 6th 7/2
The huge plunge 30 secs before the off on Brave Troop meant we would always been clinging on for place money which we scrapped in thanks to the Sky concession.
I had a feeling that the horse will need a step up in trip – I suspect may now have a couple of runs on heavy ground and then given a target in the Spring.
BET 18
29 November 2024
Galop du Chasse 2.30 Newbury Venetia Williams – Charlie Deutsch
2pt win 10/3 – 9/4
Result 3rd
Backed from 10/3 into 9/4 the 6yo was fractious at the start , missed the break and was always playing catch up. He came with a promising run , but looked like the early exertions took its toll and was nursed home by Charlie after the last.
As a rule, we don’t follow horses who run below par and although especially on softer ground we won’t back against him but we wont back again unless he runs back to par in future races.
BET 19
30 November 2024
Issar d’Airy 3.35 Newbury
1pt ew 6/1 Niall Houlihan Gary Moore
This has the look of a long-term plot with the race being the No 1 target for the horse this season. A dual winner at the course the 6yo started the campaign with an excellent run behind Martador at Ascot. That form as been boosted by the winner and those in behind. 6/1 each way 1,2,3 looks like a bet to nothing
Result 4th 2/1
Niall Houlihan attempted to ride a similar race when the horse won at the track in 2023. However ,he gets trapped on the rail when the pace increased and was caught too far back. On ground that was riding faster than predicted he plodded home one paced and the major gamble from 7/1 – 2/1 never looked likely to be landed. He finished 4th just out of the frame
Still another very good month – From 18 Bets Advised
- 10 Winners
- 2 ew bets placed
- 6 Lost
Profit and recommended Prices 58.06 pts
Hag Tag November Summary
10 winners from 18 Bets so – hit the 50% Winning Bets target we set for each month.
Generally, with no bet recommended unless a price of 2/1 is available this ensures a profit and makes sense of the numerous hours spent on research and analysis.
These our performance targets:
- 30% Selections win as expected
- 30% win or lose fortuitously
- 40% of Losers run poorly or below form
- No losing of more than 4
Having this mindset keeps you centered both during winning and bad runs.
This is the breakdown of the month’s performance from the 18 BETS Advised
8 Won as anticipated
4 Won or Lost with luck with or against them
6 Ran below form
Profit 58.06 Pts at EP 28.55 at S.P.
December Advises
BET 1
1st December 2024
Come on Teddy 2.15 Carlisle Harry Cobden Harry Derham
1pt EW 13/2-11/2 in places
Each way four places with several firms makes this a viable wager. Due to run at the Paddy Power meeting and pulled out because of good ground. This will be the first run for the yard. I don’t think he will be given a hard race, but such is the improvement this trainer gets out of horses it takes over from other yards it could win anyway, and I am certain it will be placed sufficiently to finish in the first four.
Soft ground is important and whatever happens today I am sure we will earn out of this horse who I believe is becoming well handicapped.
Result 4t 9/2
Pretty much as predicted Cobden gave the horse every chance to win but when the lack of an outing told late on didn’t give him a hard race. This horse will be money in the bank this season. Although I got a bigger price for P/L purposes I have marked it up as 5/1.
Bet no 2
2nd December 2024
Sullivan Bay 14.55 Plumpton Harry Cobden Jim & Suzi Best
2pt WIN 11/4-5/2
This 4yo is rated just 74 but since joining the Jim and Suzi Best has made rapid progress on the flat winning and then running really well to finish 3rd in a race where the form has held up. On a line through other horses in that race that have reverted to hurdles , Sullivan Bay could have up to 20lb in hand today. The yard does well at their local track and Harry Cobden has been jocked up for what could be a steering job.
Result 2nd 11/8
Cobden was stood down after an earlier fall. Sullivan Bay who traded 1.2 in running was chinned on the line. He became unbalanced on the run between the last two and whilst Jack Tudor is a useful jockey I think with Cobden the gamble into 11/8 would have been landed.
Bet No 3
3rd December 2024
Santorini Star 3.00 Lingfield Richard Kingscote William Haggas
2pt Win 5/2
The 3yo owned by Tony Bloom looks well handicapped off a mark of 77 and the shrewd connections have got into this 0-78 handicap of which there are only a few.
Kingscote is an excellent booking with a 33% strike rate for the yard on the AW tracks. Haggas has a great record at Lingfield in December with 5 winners from his last 7 runners in handicap
Result Won 11/8
Completely outclassed the field without winning too far may still get into a 0-85 next time out and will probably win in the same way. Sister to a group winning filly she can progress to a rating of at least 95
Bet No 4
3rd December
Fort George 4.00 Newcastle Paul Mulrennan E Walker
2pt win 9/4
Fort George was a very unlucky loser at this track -seeming to have the race won only to get caught on the line by one that got a run on the favoured nearside rail.
He returns to the track and faces some well-bred unraced juveniles which has resulted in a decent price of 9/4. My information suggests they are not expected to be ready first time out and the Haggas horse is likely to need more time having ran very green on debut.
Result 3rd 13/8
Looked certain to win after setting a steady gallop but then started to hang markedly to the left throwing the race away in the process. Still only beaten in a 3-way photo. Had he kept straight would have won by a 1l
Bet No 5
4th December
Blue Secret 11.50 Lingfield M Ghiani William Haggas
1pt ew 6/1 4 places
The Haggas record at Lingfield in the AW winter campaign is simply outstanding and with 6/1 on offer 1-4 places in this 12-runner event is simply too big a price to ignore. She could be drawn better but has good early pace and I expect Ghiani can get across and dominate the race from the front.
Result 5th 11/4
A complete mess of a race some of the jockeys on outsiders drawn low seemed to think the race was the Epsom 5F dash and went off at a suicide pace. I have a feeling they were riding too instructions to help the well supported Gary Moore runner ( one was a stablemate)
This should have helped Blue Secret who missed the break and was held up in midfield. The 2yo failed to handle the downhill run and then when looking for a run that would have certainly secure each way money was blocked and then forced inside instead of taking the favoured outside line.
No blame to the jockey – the crazy early pace caused the race to turn into a lottery.
Bet No 6
4th December
Cloudy Glen 2.45 Haydock C Deutsch – V Williams
2pt win 2/1
This is simply a copy book Venetia Williams plot . Everything is in place for the 11yo to gallop his rivals into the ground in the Veterans Chase.
2/1 is a very good price this horse should be Evens
Result Won 11/8
Quite simply everything went exactly to plan and Cloudy Glen Hacked Up
Bet no 7 7th December 2024
Dubai Honour 6.10 Sha Tin
1pt ew Tote SP
The Haggas record in the Far East is incredible and was highlighted by Forest brilliant victory in Australia in November. Dubai Honour has already notched victories and excellent placed efforts in the Far East and although the gelding faces its toughest test, yet I still expect a great run.
Likely to go off between 16/1 – 20/1 I cannot see the 5yo being out of the frame/
Result 2nd 18/1
Only foiled by Giavelletto and Oisin Murphy conjuring up a great turn of foot the 5yo ran a terrific race which returned a healthy place return of 3.8 for our money.
Only foiled by Giavelletto and Oisin Murphy conjuring up a great turn of foot the 5yo ran a terrific race which returned a healthy place return of 3.8 for our money.
Bet no 8
9th December
Altmore 5.00pm Southwell
1pt ew 1-5 places
The price of 7/1 given the 5 places offered should make this a bet to nothing. Well drawn given that his last run can be forgiven due to soft ground as long as he takes to the AW he should go close.
The Haggas AW team is in brilliant form
Result Lost 7/1
The 3yo travelled well into the race but once the pace increased he was bullied out of his position and then seemed reluctant to battle back . One to be weary of !!
Bet no 9 12th December 2024
Don’t Tell Su 2.25 Warwick
1pt ew 4/1 1-4 places
We keep hitting the bar with the Paul Nicholls bets and today we are taking on a short-priced favourite of the Skelton team. The 4/1 4places means we can take the risk and if we get beat there will be no real damage to the bank . The Skelton favourite No Hope Street will need to improve over stone on the book which is possible, but I think given the odds there is sufficient chance that he may not have,
Result 2nd 3/1
Mr Hope Street did make the improvement and defeated Don’t Tell Su by a comfortable 2L . I did think that Harry Cobden was carrying his damaged shoulder, but it didn’t make the difference
Bet no 10 13th December 2024
Wreckless Eric 1.15 Cheltenham
1pt ew – 7/1 4 places
Our first bet will be on Wreckless Eric in the 1.15
Available at 7/1 (4 places) this improving hurdler as course and distance winning form and is cracking ew bet. The market has taken no chances with the novices Valgrand and Willmount who have been relatively weak.
We posted at the time that the handicap won by Wreckless Eric was a race to follow, and the few to have run from the race have only supported our opinion. Cavern Club, who was second, re-opposes, but the stiffer track on the new course and likely stronger pace will suit Wreckless Eric, and we expect him to improve again and rack up a quick double.
Result 2nd 4/1
The race was taken apart by an enterprising ride on the winner who took 10 lengths out of the field at the half-way mark when he took advantage of the slow early pace. The hold up horses which included Wreckless Eric were left in no-man’s-land and although he stayed on well to be 2nd the winner had gone beyond recall.
This week shows the success of the staking plan. Although a run of 2nd places is frustrating it has had no impact on the bank and we remain in front on the month .
Hag Tag - Diary of a Season 
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