14/12/2024 Preview

Blue Secret 5.15 Southwell 1-4 places

Theonewedreamof 1.13 Cheltenham 1-4 places

Two bets today both on offer at around 5/1 when the markets opened.

Some punters query why i back ew at prices between 3/1 upwards, my reasoning is to separate the emotion of the sport with the emotion of being proved right and defeating the bookies.

For many years i was unable to do this and the emotion linked to backing big priced winners was so strong that it took over my main objective from punting which is too make profits year in year out.

The emotions generated from the sport are enough of a buzz , watching a brilliant chase debut such as Jango Baie yesterday or the thrilling Hong Kong Vase last week are a big enough fix. Personally, since being able to separate those emotions from the buzz of beating the bookies has increased both my love of the sport and my bank balance.

With diminishing values and increasing knowledge available to punters and bookies i have quite simply found it more profitable to be more cautious and stick to a level stakes punting process, with rigid rules that include the each way thinking.

Onto todays selections

Blue Secret 5.15 Southwell

Starting with Blue Secret the next in our Hag Tag AW winter series of wagers from which we are already virtually assured of a profit this campaign.

I rarely back horses after they have resulted in a losing bet – but the extraordinary race that the 2yo took part in at Lingfield makes this a valid exception. Having just missed the break drawn wide Marco Giani had no choice but to drop in but such was the ferocity of the pace that he was unable to get a good position. As the pace collapsed he was forced to go inside and got blocked before making a good step forward only to run out of stamina and just fail to secure the ew money!!

I am certain this horse has been placed to win today due to the yard taking serious action to bring about success. These include

First time cheekpieces

Drop back to 6f

Turned out quickly

Booking of top claimer Joe Leavy ( first AW ride for the yard )

The 2yo is well drawn, will appreciate the galloping track at Southwell and most importantly will massively increase her paddock value by becoming a winner. Quite Simply – Today is the day !!

Theonewedreamof 1.13 Cheltenham 1-4 places

Gavin Cromwell is a master at landing long term planned gambles and successfully pulled two of yesterday in the handicap hurdle at Cork with the 3yo Robbies Rock who won unchallenged, despite pulling throughout the race and with Stumptown in the Cross Country at Cheltenham who won far more easily than the winning margin.

He landed this same race last year with La Malmason who went off 11/4 favourite. Cromwell overall has a great record in mares chases and although possibly stronger than last years race this years renewal is by no means a good quality grade 3. The Coco Mademoiselle is overrated and i think the only danger is Realisation from the back to form Charlie Longsden yard.

At 5/1 with 4 places Theonewedreamof – looks a rock solid bet.