Its not rocket science to understand that Cheltenham handicap hurdle form at the November and December meetings is worth following – however a detailed analysis year after year proves a rich source of profit.
This years renewals will prove to be no exception, the two feature Handicap Hurdles at the November meeting have already proved there worth and the December events look very much races to follow. Key to the assessment is the pace the races were ran at and the predicted pace of future races where betting opportunities arise.
Unfortunately, it is of course, not as simple as following horses declared in these races and then backing them on future outings blindly. Each year these horses form the bases of analyses for reliable opportunities , yes of course from some of the horses running in the Cheltenham qualifiers but mostly through the collateral form that evolves.
The following races are the sources of credible form , in reverse order.
Sat 14 December:
The BetMGM Mare Handicap Hurdle 15.35
Fri 13 December
The Citipost Handicap Hurdle 15.35
The Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle
Sunday 17 November
The Greatwood Hurdle 15.30
Saturday 16 November
From the Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle 14.55
The Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle 15.30
Friday 15 November
The Valda Energy Novices Handicap Hurdle 16.00
The Lycett Conditional Jockeys HandicapHurdle 13.10
There have been a fair few winners from these races that more than justifies the reasoning but with the busy Christmas period ahead of us there is no better time to follow these prime sources of form.
Lets start with the opening Lycett Conditional Jockeys Hurdle won by Double Powerful. Somewhat fortuitously from Irish raider Young Lucy.
This is generally the weakest of the races to follow and to date only 5 of the 16 have reappeared. Young Lucy disappointed when only 5th in a Cork handicap but i thought was given a considerate ride. Plaisir des Flos ran well beaten in 3rd but possibly didn’t stay upped in trip to 3m.
Getalead won a little handicap at Wincanton but couldn’t handle a big ratings hike afterwards.
Clonbury Bridge ran ok sent chasing and is worth tracking but Wot You Wearing was an eyecatcher next time out at Taunton and is one to look out for in a west country staying handicap hurdle on soft ground.
Those yet to reappear. – I will track them as they are declared and will provide detailed analysis on this site with a note on Bluesky and X refahagtag25.bsky.social
The Valda Energy Novices Handicap Hurdle
Again a race ran at a level pace.
This promises to be a fascinating and profitable live case study race. Which has already provided very positive form that can be followed with confidence.
Wreckless Eric and Cavern Club contested another race the subject of this case study at the December meeting. We landed ew money with Wreckless Eric who was not suited by the muddling pace and left Cavern Club alone for another day. See report on race later in case study
Fosal and Razzle Dazzle Boy contested a soft ground Sandown handicap finishing 1 and 2 Razzle Dazzle Boy coming out on top but Fosal running an eyecatching performance in second.
Dream Escape was a bit disappointing but landed ew money at Thurles and Golden Maverick beaten 23L ran well in 4th in a race at Lingfield that looks like being a hot contest and Jamie Snowdens 4yo looks a ready made winner in the next couple of months.
The Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle 15.30
Run at an even pace the Irish trained Hamsiyann landed a gamble for Tony Martin on his return to the training ranks following a 6th month ban.
The immediate form has worked out especially well. The runner up Long Draw and 3rd placed Wonderful Eagle finished 1st and 3rd in another Case Study race back at the track in December. 4th placed Wyenot won a listed mares race at Doncaster. Fire
The Paul Nicholls trained Fire Flyer made a very encouraging chasing debut behind the useful Billythebigredone at Chepstow.
From the Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle
The excellent yardstick Gowel Road finished runner up here which allows accurate assessment of the race moving forward.
In fact Gowel Road reversed form with the winner Doyen Quest in another case study race back here in December on 8lb better terms. Although Doyen Quest looked ready for a break.
4th placed Thanksforthehelp filled the same place in the race contested by another case study horse Plaisir Des Flos at Bangor who finished 3rd. The first two Stracken and Schalke look well worth following with the former ready to notch up a hat trick
The Greatwood Hurdle
A bit like the London Gold Cup on the flat the Greatwood is always a race to note. This years renewal looks particularly strong although Harry Cobden on the winner Burdett Road was left to set his own fractions.
Only a couple of pointers so far , the form will be put to the acid test in Saturdays big handicap at Ascot.
Tintintin ran 6th in the December case study race won by Mirador, he looked in need of a step up trip or an end to end gallop at 2m. Royal Play well beaten by 33L finished 4th in the mud at Sandown but Cracking Rhapsody beaten 32L won a Class 3 handicap at Kelso.
The December Meeting
The Citipost Handicap Hurdle 15.35
Might I was allowed to set a steady pace early on but the pace quickened up when Gowel Road increased the tempo. He was cut down by Long Draw who landed a gamble for the Murphy- Bowen team . The last 4 home all look to high in the weights and the race is the one of the 8 studied to be cautious, although the winner third and fifth could improve again.
The Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle 1.15
A stop start pace allowed Mirador to poach an unassailable lead 1m from home and our Case Study horses from the Valda Energy Handicap had no chance as both were held up. Wreckless Eric did particularly well to finish 2nd, whilst Cavern Club was not given a hard race and is one to keep onside, perhaps down in grade. The 3rd placed Bo Zenith was a huge eyecatcher and wont be missed in the market next time out but overall this race will be one to follow well into the Spring
The Bet MGM Mares Handicap Hurdle 3.35
Last but not least and the slowest run race of the 8 studied. Nevertheless it has thrown up a group of mares well worth following this Spring. Joyeuse runner up here will I am sure turn out to be the best, in contrast the winner , although completing a six timer is likely to struggle with a penalty and weight rise- she really got the benefit of a slow pace here.
Just to clarify i will post daily on
refahagtag25.bsky.social and on X @HagTag9801 updates and thoughts when horses from these races and collateral form appear and look possible with recommended bets
Good luck and thanks for following.
REFA Hag Tag methodology is based on taking a few key objective performance factors to provide a limited number of bets at value odds.
These include : The William Haggas stable on the flat and Venetia Williams on the jumps.
Plus several Case Study groups of races that provide the basis for finding value betting opportunities.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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