A look at the seasons statistics in the big chases this season and her record at Haydock and Ascot in December over the past decade, suggest the cards at Ascot and Haydock this weekend will provide the brilliant trainer with further big race successes.
The case is fairly obvious a near 50% strike rate in December at the tracks in all races since 2015 , a huge win rate this season with highly ranked chasers etc,etc.
However , firstly these facts have been taken into account in the early markets and looking closely at each of the the races and with one eye on the stable form of the last seven days there is a strong case to oppose each of the runners at the two tracks on Saturday.
- Galup De Chasse 1.15 Ascot Current price 3/1
I thought the 8 yo passed up a great opportunity to win last time out , we recommended the gelding as a 2pt win bet. However, i didn’t think he travelled with any enthusiasm and my initial thought was he was ‘one to avoid’.
Scarface who re-opposes on the same terms finished ahead of Galup De Chasse in that race despite being inconvenienced by a slow start and Katmask who has strong form with Martador has an obvious choice but i take the view if the Moore stable win a race i have had a bet in – i lose !!
I thought the yard had a good thing and backed Issar D’Airy from the yard a few weeks back only for the horse to be given a dreadful ride and run 10lb below form, which is often the case with this yard..
Galup De Chasse may come back to its best and win but history tells me only in exceptional cases, forgive a defeat of a horse that was a losing bet, a rule i ignored with Blue Secret earlier this month to my cost !!
2.Intimate 1.30 Haydock
This horse ran well in a race on the Sandown mud first time over fences and is a worthy favourite and probably the nearest i came to bet on the yards 4 runners at Haydock and Ascot. I am not going to because i thought Netywell ran an eyecatching race on seasonal debut, although the Lucinda Russell is another i avoid for betting purposes and more significantly I have been keeping an eye on the Sue Smith Joel Parkinson runners over the last seven days. They are without doubt coming out of a spell in the doldrums and their stable of well handicapped horses are well worth a second look. Cerendipity with Nick Schofield a significant jockey booking has a very good chance here at a good price of 11/2.
3 Frenchy Du Largy 2.05 Haydock
The ultra consistent 9yo ran ok at Ludlow on his reappearance despite being almost impossible to ride in the closing stages hanging markedly right. It was too big a fault to ignore and upped in grade over a gruelling 3m + at Haydock I think Ned Fox will struggle to get the fragile gelding home.
4 Victtorino 3.00 Ascot
The horses run in the Coral Gold Cup was remarkable not solely for the late surge through beaten horses but also the horses attitude and poor jumping display throughout the first half of the race. It appears to me most pundits are treating that as a one off – in my experience that is probably not the case and at 9/4 I am not going to pay to find out. The 6yo is the most likely winner in what looks a weak contest for the grade with the exception of the unexposed Trelawne ( who may not run ) if thats the case Victtorino will go off at around 13/8 which is then outside our 2/1 minimum price rule which means No Bet in any case.
The yard also have 3 runners at Hereford at a meeting where they have a better record than either the Ascot or Haydock meetings over the past 5 years. I quite like the chance of Lagonda in the 1.38 and will check out the race in detail once the prices are out.
One note of caution the stables runners have massively under performed since last Saturday with 14 consecutive losers including 4 short priced horses beaten out of sight. This was highlighted by Tanganyika at Windsor who was galloping to what looked a certain victory at Windsor ( 1.08 in running on the exchange) and then inexplicably slowed down to finish well beaten.
Hag Tag - Diary of a Season 
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