Christmas Crackers

With 10 meetings to work on, we have, in effect, three days of racing crammed into one.

However, if ever there was a card designed for viewing rather than punting, it is surely the Kempton card on Thursday. Although I expect that being able to get an odds-against price for The Jukebox Man in a field of five, where the top-rated rival is 147, may prove to be something of a gift. Maybe they will even super-boost it!

Of the other nine cards, I have focused on horses with form from races I have earmarked to follow that, coincidentally, are running on Boxing Day, plus a couple that look laid out to win for yards that traditionally have winners on this day.

There is also potentially a bet from the Haggas yard in the form of our case study horse, Altmore.

I will leave that to last and begin with the form from the Racing TV Handicap Chase, run over 3m at Carlisle on the 1st of December 2024. The winner was O’Connell, who ended a cold spell for the Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith yard, winning by a short head from the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Fortunate Man, with Illico de Cotte 4 lengths back in third and Come On Teddy, running for the first time for the Harry Derham yard, in fourth.

The race was run at a level pace, but significantly O’Connell ran the final 4 furlongs in an almost identical time to the highly rated Caldwell Potter, who was running over a trip of just 2 miles. The final 3m2f race on the card saw the winner take 4 seconds longer (20 lengths) over the final 4 furlongs, and they had gone a funeral pace throughout the first mile.

The value of the form was the ease with which the favourite, Illico de Cotte, travelled. I got the sense that Skelton was riding with extreme confidence, but he was left for dead by the eventual winner and runner-up between the last two and after the last.

The fourth-placed Come On Teddy ran respectably, although I thought Cobden rode with another day in mind. He was also left well behind.

Well beaten in seventh was Jack’s Parrot, who went so close to winning the Tommy Whittle on his next outing.

Illico de Cotte’s back form is very interesting.

On his first outing, he beat Elleon, who never jumped a fence next time out, and Home Sweet Highway, who tragically lost his life when falling two out while 45 lengths clear.

Illico de Cotte’s novice form ties in with Haiti Coulours, the Rebecca Curtis 7yo that was so impressive at the Cheltenham December meeting and is en route to the festival in March.

On Boxing Day, O’Connell heads to Market Rasen for the Lincolnshire National, due off at 1:47. The 8yo went off 9/4 for this race 12 months ago and would have been long odds-on in running when he cruised to the front on the home turn, only to finish fourth, beaten less than a length.

Although 5lb worse off this year, there is every reason to believe he can win this at a price of around 4/1. Last year’s race was a crawl, and those at the head of the gallop held a huge advantage. O’Connell cruised to the front, but he is a horse that must be delivered late. This year, the head of the market is the Neil Mulholland-trained Kelce, who is a confirmed front-runner. He will be taken on for the lead by the 14yo Crosspark, and at worst, they will go an even pace. This is exactly what O’Connell needs, and I expect Theo Gillard’s first ride for the yard to be a winning one. The stable is hitting top form after a slow start to the season. 4/1 is a good price, given his SP last year of 9/4 in exactly the same conditions and with most of the same horses re-opposing.

Bet No. 1: O’Connell is a rock-solid 1pt EW bet at 4/1 or bigger (1:47 Market Rasen).

Fortunate Man, a 5yo trained by Jonjo O’Neill, has a harder task in the 2:15 at Aintree but has been marked up at 11/4, which I expect to shorten.

Upped 4lb to a mark of 120 for his narrow defeat by O’Connell, he nevertheless looks a typical O’Neill/J.P. McManus improver. I am sure he will be rated mid to high 130s by the end of the season. On closer inspection, his rivals all appear to be going backwards aside from the 5yo Jar Du Desert, who ran well at Wetherby, but the form of the race has been awful, and Ikarak, the Olly Murphy runner, who scrambled home in a weak contest at Warwick, where the subsequent form has also been very poor.

Bet No. 2: Fortunate Man looks a good 2pt win bet (2:15 Aintree).

Bet No. 3: 1pt EW double with O’Connell.

Now for some runners that have good chances and are possible bets depending on how the markets evolve:

• King Arise (3:13 Wincanton): Best price currently 2/1, which is skinny. If I can get 5/2, I may get involved.
• Greenrock Alley (1:07 Fontwell): Trainer Kerry Lee’s horses have hit good form. The book has introduced the 8yo at 9/2, which seems skinny. I will monitor the market before deciding.

And now onto the case study horse, Altmore, declared to run in the 4:35 at Wolverhampton.

Although a slightly lower draw (in 5 or 6 rather than 8) would have been perfect, the set-up of the race suggests he can go one better for the yard that narrowly failed to win this race in 2022.

That race was won by the subsequent Richard Hannon Group 2 winner Witch Hunter. The main dangers, Alzahir and Hot Toss, are drawn 4 and 5 and will be held up behind Altmore. Providing Fallon gets him into a prominent position, I expect him to win cosily after kicking on from the home turn.

Bet No. 4: 2pt win Altmore (4:35 Wolverhampton).

Altmore 4.35 Wolverhampton