Cheltenham 2025 Portfolio

The Cheltenham Festival is not only one of the great sporting occasions that this country has to offer, but it also presents an unprecedented, once-a-year opportunity for knowledgeable punters to almost guarantee profits.

The fact that William Hill offers Non-Runner Money Back (NRMB) from the 1st of January—70 days before the meeting starts—and others follow shortly after puts the ball firmly in the punters’ court.

With further factual performance evidence to be obtained in the run-up to the event, there is an opportunity to put in place a series of low-risk bets that can provide the framework for a highly profitable four days in March.

Coincidentally, on the day the NRMB came into play, the performance of Champ Kiely in the Beginners’ Chase at Fairyhouse threw up a good opportunity.

the 9-year-old made his chasing debut after a two-year absence from the track, following a novice hurdle campaign that included a Grade 1 win but, in hindsight, wasn’t within 10lb of the best that year, including the likes of Impaire Et Passe and Marine Nationale.

The post race comments of Mullins and Townsend confirm our positive view on Champ Kiely chasing debut.

Successful by 11 lengths after a slick round of jumping, the bay showed plenty of promise despite his lengthy break from racing and impressed both trainer and jockey.

“He did everything as it should be done, he galloped and jumped,” said Mullins.

“Paul was very happy that he’s much more relaxed over fences than he was over hurdles, which will hopefully bring about more improvement in him.

“We’ll have to look at the two-mile-five race at the Dublin Racing Festival.

“He could easily step up in trip, Paul remarked that he was so relaxed which means you could step up.”

This is highly significant the yard won this race with Fact to File in 2024 and Galopin Des Champs in 2022 . I am sure other horses from the yard will contest the race but the fact he was immediately targeted here and with the comment that they feel he can step up in trip it looks like the Brown Advisory is in serious consideration.

The fact that he is a 9-year-old (as of yesterday) immediately throws up a red flag for punters who follow trends. The time of his win wasn’t anything special; what stood out, however, was his jumping against a highly proficient rival who matched strides with him throughout the first two miles.

It was a debut display that only the most natural of jumpers can produce and will stand him in good stead as he moves up in grades.

Will he be good enough for a Brown Advisory? Time will tell. He will need to reproduce today’s performance without a bounce from the long break, but if he improves further, he may jump to the forefront of the Mullins team. If not, he will likely be redirected to other opportunities, and the punter-friendly NRMB will come into play.

The Broadway Novices Chase as it is registered but formerly known as the Sun Alliance and now the Brown Advisory has a chequered history of providing a stepping stone for novices to then progress to the Gold Cup in subsequent seasons.

Since Lord Windermere and Bobs Worth converted wins in the race to Gold Cup victory the following season no winner of the Brown Advisory has gone onto win the blue riband event of the festival. Presenting Percy went off favourite but went into the race following a disrupted season and disappointed. Since then, the winners have been speedier types that ultimately have found the step up from 3m1/2 furlong to 3m2 1/2 furlongs beyond them.

Willie Mullins has won three of the past ten runnings with Fact to File, Monkfish and Don Poli and the current Ante Post market sees him as the trainer of the five in the first six that head the market. Our Bet Champ Kiely is not in that list quoted at 14/1.

However, i think it is extremely unlikely that four of the five will run. Although Sir Gino quite rightly, took the plaudits with his victory in the Kauto Star i thought Ballyburn ran very poorly and whilst in understand, the argument that he will better over further- to me he didn’t look like a grade 1 winning chaser and i think he may well head for the Stayers Hurdle, more on that later.

Dancing City i suspect will head to the race and probably go off favourite. Impaire Et Passe and Majborough wont run in this and Ile Atlantique although impressive on chase debut is an exuberant type who is likely best when fresh.

So that brings Champ Kiely and the style of his performance at Fairyhouse and the class he had shown as a novice stood out to me as an ideal type for the Brown Advisory. He may well go there as Mullins second with Townsend favouring Dancing City. The race has developed a habit of starting with small fields, Mullins last two winners have gone off at 1/4 and 8/13 but aside from The Jukebox Man again this year i can’t see many others in the Ante Post market that look likely starters.

Back to Ballyburn he is the same price 3/1 NRMB for the Stayers Hurdle and that could look pretty good value in what will be a match with Teahupoo if they both go to post.

1 pt ew

William Hill Ante Post 14/1 Champ Kiely

Brown Advisory Cheltenham 12 March 2025