Carbine Harvester – Caution Advised

Carbine Harvester is going for a hat-trick in the 1.58 at Lingfield on Thursday carrying a 6lb penalty but is 4lb well in having been put up 10lb from Friday by the handicapper following his last victory at Southwell.

Both the 3yo’s victories have been something of a surprise, unfancied in a class 5 nursery at Wolverhampton off a mark of 68 he was sent off at 10/1 but kept on well to beat the favourite Oakley Boy comfortably by 3/4L.

The form didn’t look great and raised 4lb in the weights he was turned out at Southwell later the same month. Introduced in the morning markets as 5/2 favourite the colt drifted right up to the off eventually starting at 17/2. The well backed favourite Ardennes who re-opposes set good fractions but Carbine Harvester found a good turn of foot inside the final furlong to win going away by 31/2L recording very good finishing sectionals for the final two furlongs that proceeded a decent pace throughout.

My first impression when i saw the horse had been risen 10lb by the official handicapper and was entered here with only a 6lb penalty was that providing a price of 2/1 or higher was available he would be a bet.

However, deep investigation , has I believe, revealed some very good reasons to take a cautious no bet approach.

Here is why. This race is at Lingfield over 6f drawn 8 in a field of 9. The first bend over this distance comes up very quickly and ensures a strong pace if there are confirmed pace setters in the race. The re-opposing Ardennes drawn ideally in 2 will lead, but although officially the same class (4) this looks a step up from the Southwell race with Dream Voyage drawn in 4, Camera Shy in 5 and Sergio Parisse in 6 all potential improvers and significantly all with sufficient early pace to go forward and keep Carbine Harvester out wide or have to go to fast to get across and get involved in a pace duel with Ardennes.

I am particularly, interested in the Clive Cox trained Sergio Parisse ridden by Richard Kingscote who rides Lingfield as well if not better than any jockey. Cox had a very frustrating season in 2024 with long periods in the doldrums but as a result will have several very well handicapped horses this year. Sergio Parisse who races here first time following a wind operation could be one of them. However there is nothing in the stats to suggest Cox targets his horses at Lingfield in January and it could well need the run, with the future in mind.

Hugo Palmer who sent out Misty Sky to beat the Haggas trained Art Market on Saturday runs Dream Voyage who last time out was beaten 24L in a race won by the brilliant Lake Victoria, at Newmarket. And there is another potential pace angle with Amerjet drawn in 7 who has led in races over 5F

In summary Carbine Harvester could be one of those horses that just keeps on surprising and he could settle in behind what i am sure will be a strong pace and quicken up off the bend and complete the hat-trick.

But my experience tells me that horses from this yard don’t drift markedly in the betting without good reason and his victories have come about more because of poor performances from the opposition.

He will be short enough here and in what looks a much tougher contest than either of his last two races , my recommendation is to watch and not get financially involved.

As many of you will be new to the service, i am often asked whether if its not a bet is it a lay? In this case i would not back it or lay it

Carbine Harvester 1.58 Lingfield Thursday NO BET