The addition of a card at Chelmsford on Saturday sees the Somerville Lodge team enter two of the AW winter team: Seconds Count and Altmore.
Seconds Count – 1.55 Chelmsford
Seconds Count ran very promisingly at Lingfield on her debut, finishing full of running under a hands-and-heels-only ride from Adam Farragher. For new readers of these Hag Tag articles, the instruction always given to riders of unraced horses on debut is, “Don’t use the whip unless it’s absolutely necessary.”
The value of the form will only be known after this afternoon’s race. The third-placed horse, War and Love, was arguably even more of an eye-catcher. However, the timings and sectionals suggest it was an average race, with Seconds Count awarded an RPR of 65. War and Love was very slowly away, using up plenty of energy catching up in the middle part of the race, yet still finished the strongest in the final furlong.
Adam Farragher retains the ride today, although Cieren Fallon is riding for Haggas later on the card. Sounds of Jura, with Hayley Turner riding for Mark Johnston, is top-rated. In a field of horses where the majority will likely need more than a mile, the lack of pace in the race makes betting problematic.
At this time of year, it’s one to treat with caution—especially with odds likely around 6/4—so this will be a NO BET for me.
Altmore – 2.40 Chelmsford
Altmore is becoming very frustrating. I’ve backed this horse three times, collecting on the first bet but losing on the next two. After the novice win at Chepstow, when I was fortunate to get 2/1 in the early markets, I believed this would be a Haggas horse to follow.
When I saw his initial rating of 76, the colt looked like max-bet material. That’s exactly what I had in a moderate 7f handicap at Catterick. However, on the morning of the race, he was withdrawn, citing soft ground as the reason—only to be declared 7 days later at Pontefract, again on soft ground!
Put in the market at 11/10, he drifted to 6/4 (short of my bet price range) but absolutely bolted in, winning by nearly 3 lengths, a margin that could easily have been tripled. The handicapper took a dim view, raising his mark to 87.
Next, he was declared in a Class 2 handicap at Doncaster, again on soft ground. Opening at 11/10 in the markets, he drifted out to 6/1 before some late money forced the price back to 4/1. He didn’t cope with the ground or the grade, running poorly. The decision to make it a NO BET, although heavily influenced by the early price, always looked the right one.
Introduced to the AW at Newcastle in December, he was drawn well but drifted in the market to 11/1 before late support brought him back to 13/2. These odds were good value, given the stable’s record on the AW at Newcastle in December, so I had a 1pt e/w bet. Unfortunately, he ran poorly. Seemingly travelling well, he was caught out when the pace quickened, stuck behind a wall of horses, and finished 11th of 13 runners.
Nine days later at Kempton, upped to a mile and available at 25/1, he was again supported into 14/1. I opted for a watching NO BET. Off a mark of 87, he ran well from a wide draw, always up with the pace, finishing runner-up, beaten just over 1 length.
The handicapper put him back up to 87, but he was able to run off 85 in a 7f handicap at Wolverhampton 8 days later. With 11/2 available, I recommended a 1pt e/w bet, taking advantage of one firm offering 1, 2, 3, 4 places. Drawn wide, he stayed wide, got to the front, and Fallon increased the pace 4f from home. Significantly quickening at the 3f pole, he was swallowed up inside the final furlong, dropping away to finish 6th, beaten less than 1.5 lengths at 7/2!
The race sectionals confirm Fallon went for home too soon. The horse’s fastest two furlongs were the 4th and 3rd, leaving him and our e/w bet exposed inside the final furlong, where faster horses caught him.
I’m surprised he’s running again so quickly, now back up to a mark of 87. However, I’m not surprised he’s returning to a mile in the 2.40 at Chelmsford, which has attracted a maximum field of 16. The race has “trouble in running” written all over it. Although Altmore is drawn well in stall 3, Fallon will need to break well to secure a position behind confirmed pace-setters Silent Move in 6 and Urban Sprawl in 4.
Anything less and he risks being trapped behind a wall of horses, most likely denied a clear run.
As a rule, I don’t back horses following a losing bet. However, Altmore is 10/1 , and with e/w terms 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 with most firms, I’ll be having a small wager—just because it would be terrible to see him win after following him for so long.
While I wouldn’t discourage a small e/w bet, this won’t count towards the Profit and Loss account for Nu Trends, win or lose.
Week Ahead
On Monday, the hugely disappointing Fior Di Bosco is entered at Lingfield.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Seconds Count and Altmore are entered again at Southwell, although both are highly unlikely to run.
Also on Tuesday at Newcastle and Wednesday at Kempton, Purple Rainbow, owned by the King, has entries. In the same Kempton race, the Clipper Logistics-owned filly Mystery of Love is entered.
Finally, on Wednesday, Choreographic has been entered in a Class 5 nursery. However, The Outlaw, the horse that landed a nice bet for us at Chelmsford, has been entered, and that 3yo will surely follow up if running under a penalty.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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