With Yaroogh’s attempt to capture the UAE 2,000 Guineas aborted it looks like another quiet week next week , with only the stock horses that are keeping the yard ticking over at this point in the AW season entered.
In January the yard has sent out 2 winners from 15 runners which would show a loss of over 9pts to level stakes and justifies our cautious approach.
Obviously, we were not cautious enough, as we got involved with the gamble on Santorini Star who was expected to continue her improvement in the Lingfield Oaks Handicap on Saturday. As it turned out based, on her performance, it maybe that the Class 4 win of a mark of 77 maybe be near to the extent of her level. She improved marginally on Saturday when beaten just one and half lengths from a mark of 83.
As we progress through the season, we will invest on horses in the yard that start to improve in handicaps at Class 5, 4 and 3 progress to win at Class 2.
On reflection, as Santorini Star is a small filly perhaps the jump up from Class 4 to Class 2 may have been too much too soon but there are plenty of examples where horses from the yard, get beat, and then continue to progress and can still be backed with confidence in future races.
However, unless the form of the race works out exceptionally well i wouldn’t be in a hurry to back her next time. One of the reasons for the investment on Saturday was the fact that it was a weak level 2 with only two horses, both fought out the finish, rated higher than 90. It was in effect a Class 3 race.
She had no excuses, the winner scrapped home thanks to an excellent ride from Jack Mitchell, who got an uncontested lead from stall 9, setting only a steady gallop and then was able to slow the pace halfway before kicking into the bend and getting just enough of a lead to win by a nostril.
A faster pace would have suited Marquand, who was in the box seat throughout but my feeling is that this would have benefitted Power of Destiny who looked a slightly unlucky loser beaten a nose and short head in third.
She could go back in grade and run in a Class 4 0-85 handicap possibly at Kempton where the flat track would suit her – but on the evidence of this performance she will be exposed off this mark to an improver. As I said it is common for Haggas improvers to stall but then come back and continue their improvement – time will tell.
The early entries for the Lincoln Handicap were made with Godwinson and Bullett Point entered for the yard who have won the race three times in the last 16 years.
Godwinson, disappointed at Class 2 level aside from his first outing for the yard when he finished 2nd in the Newbury Spring Cup off a mark of 88. Subsequently he only won a Class 3 handicap at Goodwood in soft ground where stamina rather than speed won the day. He was well beaten in big Premier handicaps and although he possesses the right attributes for the Lincoln with an ability to stay further, his mark of 94 is probably a shade to high. The 20/1 available, factors in what I call the ‘Haggas tax’ and represents poor value.
Poor value is an under statement for the price of 10/1 being offered by Bet 365 for the stables other entry Bullett Point. The 4yo gelding struggled all season to win, eventually landing a small gamble at Newcastle in a poor Class 5.
He then followed up on soft ground at Newmarket in a Class 3 handicap, despite being unfancied and drifting from 6/1 to 12/1. It was a weak Class 3 and the 6lb rise by the handicapper seems harsh.
The 10/1 price offered by Bet 365 – 16/1 is available with other firms, is a Haggas Super Tax !! A price of 40/1 would be more realistic.
The three previous winners emphasises the poor value of this years entries:
Addeybb Won as a 5/1 favourite off a mark of 99 and had already won a Class 2 handicap
Penitent Won as 3/1 favourite off a mark of 98 had already won a Class 2 handicap
Very Wise Won at 9/1 off a mark off 91 and had already won Class 2 handicaps
To be interested in either horse in the Lincoln we would need either in the lead up to the race to win a Class 2 handicap on the AW impressively. Although it is unlikely either has the class required.
The horses entered this week comprise Mahato, Blue Secret, Brewing and Fior Di Bosco who fall into the disappointing and very disappointing category and are highly unlikely to be recommended bets.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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