If backing odds on or short priced favourites at Cheltenham is not your betting strategy – then punters could do worse than jump on board the JP O’Brien bandwagon at this years Festival.
With the long range weather forecast suggesting the course will get only minimal amounts of rain – the chances of the O’Brien team improving his Festival strike rate is increasing.
The young Irish handler is a brilliant target trainer under both codes and goes to Cheltenham this year with his best ever team, chosen from his small but highly profitable group of horses running under National Hunt rules.
His festival record over the past 4 years with horses going to post within the top six of the market is highly recommendable with two winners and 4 of the remaining 7 runners reaching the frame. Of the other three Banbridge and Embittered were both running on unsuitable Heavy ground leaving only Champion Green who may have ran into a place at 14/1 but for a serious error at the final flight in the 2022 Boodles
His recent stable tour interviews confirmed the confidence he has in his expected runners in 2025. Starting with those that could cause an upset if the red hot favourites falter, the three are available at decent each way odds.
Banbridge Cheltenham Gold Cup – will not run on Soft or Heavy Ground. 8/1 NRNB
Opened up a career as a staying chaser when winning the King George. O’Brien is extremely confident he will stay the extra trip of the Gold Cup. If ‘Galopin’ is not at his best Banbridge is the one to benefit and is a good bet ‘without the favourite’ if he gets good or good to soft ground.
Home by the Lee Stayers Hurdle 7/1 generally NRNB
The trainer is very bullish that Home by the Lee is a transformed horse this season with a level of confidence that suggests the 6L he has to make up on Teahupoo from last years race is far from impossible.
Solness Champion Chase Current odds 12/1 NRNB 25/1 Ante post
Like many others i have dismissed his 2 Grade 1 wins this year as being down to poor judgement from the riders of the other runners. He was beaten 25L on soft ground at Sandown but all the evidence suggests he is now a different horse 4 months later and with the Champion Chase on the tight Old Course he could well get another long lead and will take some pegging back if Jonbon is not on his A game. Should Ile Est Francais run here i would advise caution as the pair could turn the race into a pace duel that may well be unsustainable for both.
O’ Brien also has several eye catching runners lined up for the handicaps that depending on ground conditions could be the subject of significant market support:
Nurburgring, Busselton and Putyurhandstogether all serious contenders for Festival handicaps if the ground is not Soft or Heavy
Nurburgring has been an eye catcher in all his races this season kept to 2mile and will only be seen to best effect when stepped up to 2m4f. His jumping has been a bit ponderous but he has being facing graded horses over 16F and although the 2m4F Novice handicap will not be ran at a dawdle, the extended trip will give him more time at his fences.
Only last August he won the 150,000+ euro Galway hurdle by 7L off a mark of 139. His prep for that successful target was a 4th placed finish in the Irish Ceserawitch finishing just 3/4L behind Sixandahalf given the mare who is a leading fancy for the Mares Novice Hurdle at the Festival 6lb. He stayed on strongly over that 2m trip leaving no doubt that trips over 20f will be needed over fences.
He should get into the Novices Handicap Chase off a mark of 140 and although the event looks one of the most competitive and open at the Festival it would be no surprise if O’Brien pulled off another handicap plot with this horse having already landed a big coup in the Galway hurdle.
Nurburgring Jack Richards Novices Handicap Chase 10/1 ew 1,2,3,4 NRNB generally available.
Busselton has been on my radar since O’ Brien announced at the start of the season the Kerry National winner will go down the Cross Country route. He was given two introductory runs at the course, in the Autumn both times being hunted round to get experience. He then was given another prep race in the Boyne Hurdle won previously by Tiger Roll on route to Festival glory.
In his recent stable tour O’Brien confirmed he remained on target for the Cross Country Chase which given that it is now a handicap Busselton’s revised mark of around 139 looks perfect.
He has disappointed previously at Cheltenham but that was on Soft Ground and like the other runners from the stable mentioned here Good to Soft ground will give him the best chance of winning
Busselton 20/1 EW 1-5 Places Sky NRNB Glenfarcas Cross Country Chase
Puturhandstogether again with the proviso of the anticipated Good to Soft would be my idea of the likely stable gamble in the Fred Winter Juvenile handicap hurdle.
This is the race the yard sent out the 1st and 4th last season with Lark in the Mornin landing the prize despite drifting from a morning price of 7/2 out to 9/1 as he was thought unlikely to be at his best on the soft ground.
The horse that ticks the boxes this year, is the JP Mcmanus owned Puturhandstogether. The best rated on the flat of the stables likely entries for this race i suspect this race has been the target since the summer of 2024.
The form of his last two runs which have earned his rating can be significantly upgraded as they were both on Soft and Heavy ground. The 4yo really needs Good to Soft or Good ground to be at his best. Also his jumping was poor first time over hurdles but has improved considerably on his next two outings.
The current best price of 16/1 EW 5 places NRNB with Sky looks decent value in a race where nothing really is standing out at the time of writing.
The stable may have 4 runners with Better your Dreams also in the ownership of JP McManus likely to be the best of the other 3.
Puturhandstogether 16/1 EW 5 places NRNB with Sky
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