Elliott to capture another Irish Grand National Trial

The €100,000 Irish Grand National Trial comes at the perfect time of year for the Gordon Elliott yard. Like several top Irish stables—Henry de Bromhead’s being the most notable—the period from Christmas until after the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) tends to be quieter in terms of winners. However, once the Cheltenham Festival countdown begins, these yards often hit peak form, and this year is no exception.

Since 9th February, five of Elliott’s last ten runners sent off at 5/1 or shorter have won. In the same period, Henry de Bromhead has been operating at a 31% strike rate, reinforcing the point that both yards are back in form and their runners are being supported with increased confidence.

Gordon Elliott’s Dominance in the Irish Grand National Trial

Elliott has farmed the Irish Grand National Trial at Punchestown over the last 7 years winning 5 and having placed horses in the other 2.

• 2024 – Trained the winner from 3 runners the other 2 sent off at 25/1 and 33/1
• 2023 – Trained the first three home from four entries (although this would not have been the case had our Festival Hunters’ Chase ante-post bet not unseated two out).
• 2022 – Trained the winner, plus the third and fourth from four runners.
• 2021 – Failed to win, but his best finishers were 4th and 5th from four runners, who were priced at 18/1, 40/1, 50/1, and 50/1.
• 2020 – Sent out six runners but failed to win. His best finisher was 3rd, with the well-backed 6/1 joint-favourite Cheb Du Kerviniou going down by a couple of lengths. He also trained the 4th home.
• 2019 – Trained the 1st and 3rd from four entries.
• 2018 – Trained the 1st and 3rd from four entries.

Patterns in Elliott’s Runners

There are clear patterns in Elliott’s approach to this race. The horses most favoured in the market (12/1 or shorter) have unsurprisingly been the most likely winners or placed runners.

Market Leaders’ Performance in Recent Years

• 2018 – Winner (5/1) – Shortest price of four runners from the yard.
  • 4th place (10/1) – Second shortest price from the yard.
• 2019 – Winner (12/1) – Second shortest price from the yard.
  • 3rd place (10/1) – Shortest price from the yard.
• 2020 – 3rd place (6/1) – Shortest price from the yard and only horse shorter than 12/1 in the market
• 2021 – No runners started at 12/1 or shorter.
• 2022 – Winner (6/1) – Shortest price from the yard.
  • 3rd place (7/1), 4th place (17/2)
• 2023 – Winner (7/1), Runner-up (17/2)
• 2024 – Winner (10/1) Shortest price from the yard.

Backing the selection of Jack Kennedy—when he has been available—would have yielded three winners, one runner-up, and one third place from six rides.

However, in 2023, when Kennedy was injured, Ben Harvey was booked to claim 5lb off Coko Beach, who went on to win at 7/1.

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The 2025 Irish Grand National Trial – Elliott’s Key Runners

This year, Elliott has five runners declared in a 17-runner field. The two most favoured in the market are:

• Will Do – Ridden by Sam Ewing, who has taken over as Jack Kennedy’s direct replacement.
• Favori de Champdou – Ridden by 7lb claimer N.H. Williamson, who guided him to third place in the Thyestes Chase, behind this year’s current joint-favourite, the Gavin Cromwell trained Velvet Elvis.
• Cleatus Poolaw- the mount of Danny Gilligan a horse that has only been given ‘Education’ rides this season

Case for Will Do

Having reviewed the Thyestes Chase several times, Will Do ran into all sorts of trouble after being hampered at the start when Mcdermott caused mayhem before unseating and was never in a position to challenge. Despite this, his 6th-place finish had merit as he was asked to make up about 20L on the leaders between 5f and 4f from home an effort that took its toll , and the run can be forgiven.

The Thyestes Chase has historically been a key prep race for Elliott’s runners in this event, and although his other contenders cannot be dismissed, it would be a surprise if either Will Do or Favori de Champdou failed to get the job done.

I expect Ewing to ride Will Do far more prominently, no more than 5 or 6 lengths off the pace, the extra distance and softer ground compared to Leopardstown will help him get into a rhythm. On the pure form of the Thysetes Chase he has plenty to find with Velvet Elvis and Favori de Champdou I think the problem at the start was to blame and the reason he ran a stone below his best at Gowran Park. The wide open spaces at Punchestown will also suit him more and he can win this and prove himself to be far better than his current rating of 126 suggests.

Concerns for Velvet Elvis

Likely favourite Velvet Elvis must defy a career-high mark of 146. He had the run of the race at Gowran Park, outrunning his 22/1 odds. That day, Conor Stone Walsh claimed 5lb, but with the handicapper raising him 5lb, and Keith O’Donoghue now taking over, he will effectively be 10lb worse off with Will Do and Favori de Champdou. Additionally, Velvet Elvis has run poorly on both previous starts at Punchestown.

Why Will Do is the Strongest Contender

• Recorded his highest Racing Post Rating (RPR) at Punchestown, albeit over hurdles.
• His campaign this season suggests that the Paddy Power at Leopardstown and this Grand National Trial are his main targets.
• Given three educational runs over fences at 2m4f or shorter before stepping up in trip.
• He narrowly failed to land a major gamble in the Paddy Power Leopardstown Chase at Christmas, finishing 5th to Percival Legalois, who went on to win at the DRF.
• First-time blinkers were applied that day, resulting in a career-best performance—possibly undone only by inexperience.
• Blinkers were retained for the Thyestes Chase and will be used again at Punchestown.
• Although their is limited form to be taken from the Thyestes Chase – Yeah Man who was 4th looked to be running a big race in the Aintree Grand National trial when well supported but falling when travelling strongly at the head of the field.
• Three of Elliott’s five winners have been aged 8

Favori de Champdou – A Worthy Saver Bet and Cleatus Poolaw just in case today is the big plot.

Soft ground is no issue for Will Do, but if the heavens open in the next 24 hours, heavy ground conditions would undoubtedly favour Favori de Champdou, making him a must for betting purposes.

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Cleatus Poolaw – is worth a saver just in case today is the big plan. The 7yo has been noted being given very educational rides after seeming to be a brilliant jumper of fences before over jumping and falling on his chase debut. On the bare bones of his form he should be a 33/1 shot for this race but he has been steadily supported in the Ante Post market and is currently 11/1.

This could be small money from experts noting his recent running and the record of Elliott in this race.

The market for this type of race in Ireland can be extremely volatile, and given Elliott’s record of not only sending out the winner but also filling the places in the race , there is no problem with throwing three darts at the race.

Recommended Bets BOG 1-5 places

• 1pt Each-Way – Will Do (2:25 Punchestown, Thursday)
• 0.25pt Each-Way – Favori de Champdou (2:25 Punchestown, Thursday)
• 0.25pt Each-Way – Cleatus Poolaw (2.25 Punchestown, Thursday)