With the run-up to Cheltenham in full swing, next week will probably be quiet on the jumping front. I thought it might be a good time to post an early look at this year’s 2,000 Guineas, especially given the eye-catching performances of Opera Ballo at Kempton over the past month. 57 horses were declared at the entry stage on Tuesday.
The current market is dominated by Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby inmates, with only Joseph O’Brien’s Scorthy Champ quoted in the first seven in the ante-post markets. The two yards have supplied six out of the last 10 winners, which gives some hope for the smaller yards, but at this stage, it is probably more of a 1/4 chance rather than 4/6 that the 2025 winner is trained by those two stables.
At the head of the market (best priced 6/1) is The Lion in Winter, who was an impressive winner of the Acomb Stakes but has not been seen out since.
Interviews with Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore this year would not fill backers with confidence that this son of Sea The Stars is a potential Guineas winner.
He looks more of a Derby type and is also not off the Coolmore Stud production line. I think if other Coolmore-originated horses match his potential, they will take preference in the Guineas. I will be surprised if he turns up, and that 6/1 is poor value.
In terms of Aidan O’Brien, I would select Twain as the most likely winner from Ballydoyle. He surprised punters and bookmakers—I suspect not ‘the lads’—when winning on debut at 20/1 and then followed up by winning the Group 1 Grand Criterium over a mile at Saint-Cloud. On both runs, he showed a fine turn of foot, even given the heavy ground in France.
His dam, Wading, only ran as a two-year-old but showed a good turn of foot to win the 7f Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. He is by Wootton Bassett, whose progeny tend to excel at up to 10f. That combination of stamina and speed could prove vital, especially if we get a wet spring and the ground rides soft on the Rowley Mile in May.
I would favour him over Expanded, who produced a remarkable run in the Dewhurst Stakes to finish runner-up to current third favourite Shadow of Light on only his second outing.
Having watched the race several times, I have formed the opinion that it was a sub-standard running of the Group 1 event. Shadow of Light was able to win this after following up victory in the Middle Park Stakes, a double that has rarely been achieved. Before the race, the stamina of Shadow of Light was questioned not only by pundits but also by those close to the yard. He was a surprise runner, and it’s possible they took their chance based on the weakness of the opposition. I was far from convinced that Shadow of Light will stay a mile and that the runner-up provided sufficient evidence to suggest he can be a Group 1 winner.
Expanded is also by Wootton Bassett. His dam, Jigsaw, ran poorly on the flat and remained a maiden with a rating of 66 from half a dozen runs. Her first offspring did better, winning a couple of races but only achieving a rating of 108, which is some way from what is required to win a Group 1 race. Third home in the Dewhurst was the Godolphin-owned Ancient Truth (20/1 in the ante-post betting), followed by Seagulls Eleven. These two give further support to the view of it being a sub-standard Dewhurst that was possibly more of a Group 2 contest, which enabled the one genuine Group 1 horse in the race to win despite his stamina being stretched to the limit.
Another Godolphin runner high in the betting is Ruling Court, who was third behind The Lion in Winter at York and has also not been seen out since. His breeding suggests that a mile will be the absolute minimum trip he could excel over as a three-year-old, and he is another in the list that I think is a doubtful starter. This was confirmed after his impressive win in Dubai on the 1st March afterwards Appleby said that the intended target would be the Dante.
From the Ballydoyle horses high in the ante-post list, that leaves the enigmatic Henri Matisse. Unlike the other principals, this colt—also by Wootton Bassett—is out of a Pivotal mare and has shown a good deal of temperament along with an abundance of speed. His victory at Del Mar in the Breeders’ Cup over 1m suggests he will stay the 1m of the Guineas—but I am far from convinced. Winning on rock-hard ground around the tight bends of Del Mar, taking advantage of a pace collapse, is a million miles from what is required to win a 2,000 Guineas on the Rowley Mile. He is another I put in the unlikely runner category.
At this point in time, Twain would be my pick of the Ballydoyle team.
Before moving on to Opera Ballo, a quick look at a few from other yards. The Joseph O’Brien-trained Scorthy Champ is as short as 12/1 in some lists. He took advantage of the antics of Henri Matisse to win the National Stakes at the Curragh in September. The balance of his form through Seagulls Eleven again indicates that this is not top Group 1 form. By Mehmas, there is also a question mark about him staying a mile, and he is another best watched.
The Roger Charlton-trained Cosmic Year is around 16/1 in the ante-post market and comes under the ‘could be anything’ label. From the tried and tested Juddmonte Farms breeding route—by Kingman out of Passage of Time—the three-year-old will have no problem getting the mile trip. It can be argued it will be the bare minimum. He was very impressive winning his only start, a 7f Class 4 Novice Stakes at Sandown, beating a highly regarded Ralph Beckett colt and an unraced Andrew Balding newcomer, Quai De Bethune (more on him later), by 8 lengths. If the Guineas is the target, I suspect he will go to post next in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury, but his trainer is cautious with his good horses, and he is another far from a certain starter.
Which leaves us with Opera Ballo, the unbeaten three-year-old colt by Ghaiyyath out of a Night of Thunder mare. He looks an out-and-out miler—a trip over which he has already shown genuine Group-winning class, even though in maiden and novice company.
After the Kempton win in late February, connections said they were undecided whether to go for the 2,000 Guineas or the Kentucky Derby.
I believe he will line up at Newmarket following one more run back at Kempton in April, following the same path as last year’s winner, Notable Speech. I believe last year’s two-year-old colts—especially those likely to be best at a mile—were, by and large, a relatively poor bunch.
Opera Ballo has shown Group 1 potential in the manner of both his wins, but more so at Kempton on his second outing, when both visually and on the clock he achieved more than last year’s winner.
There is still plenty of time for other dark horses to attract attention, but as we sit here today moving into March, Opera Ballo has emerged as the most likely winner and has given every indication that he not only has the same qualities as his stablemate Notable Speech but potentially more.
Russ Nu Trends 01-03-2025
Chrysalis Consortium 
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