Chrysalis Consortium

Transformational Betting for 2026

Ballyburn to rate among the elite of Brown Advisory winners:

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by

Russ
in

To understand why we rate him banker bet material – let’s look at how he stacks up against some of the best previous winners of this prestigious Grade 1 contest, let’s break down his credentials and compare them to standout past victors like Denman (2007), Bobs Worth (2012), Monkfish (2021), and Fact To File (2024).

Why Ballyburn at 6/4 or better is value.

  1. Proven Festival Pedigree
    Ballyburn arrives with a significant advantage: he’s already a Cheltenham Festival winner. In 2024, he dominated the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (Baring Bingham) by 13 lengths, showcasing exceptional stamina and class over 2m5f. This victory aligns with a key trend—14 of the last 18 Brown Advisory winners had prior Cheltenham Festival experience, and seven had a previous win there. His ability to perform on the big stage at Prestbury Park is a major factor in his favoritism.
  2. Transition to Chasing
    Ballyburn’s switch to fences has been promising. He’s unbeaten in two chase starts as of early 2025, including a Grade 1 victory in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival over 2m5f, where he beat Croke Park by five lengths. His performance was marked by a strong finish, suggesting the step up to 3m½f in the Brown Advisory will suit him. Trainer Willie Mullins has emphasized his potential as a stayer, noting his pedigree (by Flemensfirth, a sire of stout stayers) and physique as ideal for the longer trip.
  3. Form and Ratings
    Ballyburn carries a Timeform rating of 157p (the “p” indicating potential for improvement), which is close to the level of recent winners like Fact To File (159) and Monkfish (164) at the time of their victories. His hurdle form, including a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 167 from Cheltenham, is elite, and his chasing debut suggests he’s translating that ability over fences. The historical trend shows the last 10 winners had a BHA chase rating of 150+ pre-race, and Ballyburn fits this profile.
  4. Trainer Dominance
    Willie Mullins, Ballyburn’s trainer, has an outstanding record in this race, with five wins (Florida Pearl 1998, Rule Supreme 2004, Cooldine 2009, Don Poli 2015, Monkfish 2021) and last year’s winner, Fact To File (2024). Mullins’ ability to prepare novices for this stamina test is a significant boost to Ballyburn’s chances. His stable’s dominance—three wins in the last seven years—underpins the confidence in Ballyburn.
  5. Market Support
    As of early March 2025, Ballyburn is priced around 7/4 ( Paddy Power), reflecting strong betting support. While favourites have a mixed record (9 of the last 20 winners were market leaders), six of the last ten winners were in the top three in the betting, and Ballyburn’s current position aligns with this trend.

Comparison to the Best Previous Winners

To assess Ballyburn’s standing, let’s compare him to some of the race’s most iconic winners, focusing on their pre-race credentials, race performance, and subsequent achievements.

1. Denman (2007)

  • Pre-Race Profile: Denman had won four of five chase starts, including the Grade 2 Jim Ford Chase over 3m1f. His only defeat came in the 2006 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.
  • Race Performance: At 6/5 favourite, Denman powered away to win by 10 lengths, his relentless galloping and faultless jumping overwhelming rivals.
  • Aftermath: Denman won the 2008 Gold Cup and was second in three others, cementing his status as a staying chase titan.
  • Comparison to Ballyburn: Denman’s chase experience and proven 3m+ form gave him an edge over Ballyburn’s current two chase runs. However, Ballyburn’s hurdle RPR (167) exceeds Denman’s pre-2007 hurdle peak, and his finishing strength suggests he could emulate Denman’s staying power. Ballyburn’s jumping needs to match Denman’s precision under pressure.

2. Bobs Worth (2012)

  • Pre-Race Profile: Bobs Worth won the 2011 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and had two chase wins from three starts, including a Grade 2 over 3m at Newbury.
  • Race Performance: At 9/2, he outstayed First Lieutenant to win by 2½ lengths, showing grit and stamina on soft ground.
  • Aftermath: Bobs Worth won the 2013 Gold Cup, proving his class over staying trips.
  • Comparison to Ballyburn: Both horses won a Cheltenham novice hurdle the prior year, a rare double last achieved by The West Awake (1987-1988). Bobs Worth had more chase runs (three vs. two), but Ballyburn’s superior hurdle margin (13 lengths vs. Bobs Worth’s 2½) and Grade 1 chase win give him a slight edge in raw ability. Ballyburn’s test will be replicating Bobs Worth’s resilience in a slog.

3. Monkfish (2021)

  • Pre-Race Profile: Monkfish was unbeaten in five starts under Rules, including the 2020 Albert Bartlett and two Grade 1 chase wins (notably the Flogas Novice Chase). He was rated 164 pre-race.
  • Race Performance: At 1/4 favourite, he cruised to a 6½-length victory, barely breaking sweat.
  • Aftermath: Injuries curtailed his career, but he was a Gold Cup contender before setbacks.
  • Comparison to Ballyburn: Monkfish and Ballyburn share Mullins’ training and a Festival hurdle win, with Monkfish’s Albert Bartlett mirroring Ballyburn’s Gallagher triumph. Monkfish had more chase experience (three starts vs. two) and a higher rating (164 vs. 157p), but Ballyburn’s Ladbrokes win echoes Monkfish’s Flogas success—two of the last five winners (Monkfish, Fact To File) took that route. Ballyburn’s ceiling could rival Monkfish’s if he stays sound.

4.Fact To File (2024)

  • Pre-Race Profile: Fact To File had one chase win—a Grade 1 Flogas Novice Chase victory by 8½ lengths—after finishing second in the 2023 Champion Bumper. Rated 159 pre-race.
  • Race Performance: At 8/13 favourite, he won by 3¾ lengths, jumping efficiently and staying strongly.
  • Aftermath: As a 2024 winner, his future is unfolding, but he’s a Gold Cup prospect for 2025.
  • Comparison to Ballyburn: Both are Mullins-trained, lightly raced chasers with a Grade 1 win (Flogas for Fact To File, Ladbrokes for Ballyburn). Fact To File had less hurdle success (no Festival win), while Ballyburn’s Gallagher victory adds proven Cheltenham form. Their ratings are close (159 vs. 157p), and Ballyburn’s extra chase start gives him a slight experience edge. A similar winning margin would put Ballyburn in Fact To File’s league.

How Ballyburn Stacks Up

  • Strengths vs. Past Winners:
  • Like Denman, and Monkfish, Ballyburn has elite potential and a top trainer’s backing.
  • His Festival hurdle win aligns with Bobs Worth and Monkfish, a strong indicator of adaptability to Cheltenham’s demands.
  • His Grade 1 chase form and finishing strength mirror Fact To File and Monkfish, suggesting he’s on a comparable trajectory.
  • Areas to Prove:
  • Experience: Ballyburn’s two chase starts are fewer, than Denman (five), and Bobs Worth (three), though equal to Fact To File. The Brown Advisory’s 19 fences will test his jumping under pressure.
  • Trip: He hasn’t raced over 3m under Rules (unlike Denman and Bobs Worth), though his point-to-point win and pedigree suggest he’ll stay.
  • Dominance: Denman (10 lengths) won by wider margins than Ballyburn’s 5-length Ladbrokes victory, but his 13-length hurdle win hints at untapped reserves.
  • Trends Alignment: Ballyburn fits key Brown Advisory trends: aged 7 (9 of last 12 winners), top three in betting (9 of last 10), Grade 1 chase win (9 of last 12), and prior Cheltenham success (11 of last 12). His lack of a 3m Rules run is a minor outlier, but not a dealbreaker given his pedigree and Mullins’ confidence.

Conclusion

Ballyburn’s favoritism stems from his Festival hurdle brilliance, early chase success, Mullins’ track record, and alignment with historical trends. Compared to the best winners:

  • He has Denman’s potential but not yet his chasing experience.
  • He shares Denman’s staying promise but needs to prove his jumping matches that level.
  • He echoes Bobs Worth’s hurdle-to-chase path with greater raw ability.
  • He’s close to Monkfish’s profile, with slightly less experience but similar upside.
  • He’s neck-and-neck with Fact To File, bolstered by a Festival win the latter lacks.

If Ballyburn wins the 2025 Brown Advisory convincingly—say, by 6+ lengths—he’d rank among the race’s elite, with a Gold Cup future in sight. His performance on March 12 will reveal if he’s a worthy successor to these legends. For now, his blend of proven class and untapped potential justifies his status as the horse to beat and why at 6/4 or bigger we rate him a 2pt Bet. The money has started to come for the horse in the last 24 hours and we expect him to go off at Evs on the day .

2pt win Ballyburn Brown Advisory.

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