Lulamba another Seven Burrows superstar.

When the Henderson team introduce horses at the very top of the game, they give off an air of confidence that is difficult to quantify but once they start to show it on the track they rarely fail to deliver and progress to become 160 + horses. Let’s assess the chance based on his Auteuil run which can accurately be assessed at between 135 and 140 based on the excellent time of the race.

When assessing what rating is good enough for a horse to win the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham, historical trends and data from recent renewals provide valuable insight.

Based on trends from the last 12 winners , 9 out of 12 winners had an official rating of 139 or higher. This suggests that a rating in this range is often a reliable benchmark for success. However, there are exceptions: 3 of those 12 winners did not have an official rating at the time of the race, typically because they had limited runs over hurdles or came from jurisdictions where ratings weren’t yet assigned. For example, Burning Victory, the 2020 winner, had only one prior hurdle run and no official mark, yet still triumphed after the favourite unseated its rider. Lulamba fits this criteria.

Looking at recent examples, horses rated 140 or above have been particularly successful in the last four renewals (2021–2024). Majborough (2024), Lossiemouth (2023), and Vauban (2022) were all highly regarded juveniles, and while exact ratings for each at race time vary, the trend of 140+ has held strong among rated winners. Quilixios (2021) was another standout, though his rating wasn’t as prominently documented pre-race due to a recent stable switch. Conversely, a horse like Pentland Hills (2019), a surprise winner at 20/1, had minimal hurdle form and no lofty rating, showing that unrated or lower-rated horses can occasionally defy the norm, often due to untapped potential or race-day circumstances.

The rating of 139–140 seems to be a sweet spot because it reflects a blend of proven ability and room for improvement, which is critical for four-year-olds still developing over hurdles. Horses exceeding 150, like Goshen (rated 151 in 2020 before unseating), are rare at this stage of their careers, as juvenile hurdlers typically don’t reach such heights until later seasons. A rating much below 139—say, in the 120s or low 130s—hasn’t been sufficient for victory in recent years unless the horse was unrated and showed exceptional promise in prep races like the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown or the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham.

So, a good enough rating to win the Triumph Hurdle is generally 139 or higher, with 140+ being a safer bet based on recent trends. In 2025 none of the leading fancies has an official rating higher than 137.

If like us at Nu Trends you believe Lalumba is going to be a 160+ horse and will improve a minimum 7lb on his Ascot run – he is the one horse that is ready to be rated higher than 140 – the 9/4 on offer is exceptional value, especially when you add the fact that horses with more than 12 career runs are 0-83 in the race. East India Dock has had 14 !!

2pt win Lulamba Triumph Hurdle