Simmering to come to the boil in 1000 Guineas

With concerns about the Aiden O Brien fillies being ready to be at their best on the first Sunday in May , there is likely to be a big shake up in the ante-post markets for the first fillies classic of the year.

The Ballydoyle 2yo fillies carried all before them last year with Lake Victoria, Fairy Godmother , Bedtime Story , Exactly, Heavens Gate and Merrily all featuring highly in the winter markets.

I have no doubt that when they are firing they are likely to be hard to beat but the Ballydoyle powerhouse has only sent out 1 winner this decade of the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas and the early doubts should be heeded.

It leaves the door open for Goldophin and the unbeaten Desert Flower who was visually very impressive when winning the Bet 365 Fillies mile but that form has yet to be tested and at 7/4 she looks far to short.

Although, they finished in a heap the 2yo fillies race that looked the best on paper was the Group1 Moyglare stakes ran at the Curragh when Lake Victoria caused what was at the time a major surprise when defeating the previously unbeaten Bedtime Story.

Lake Victoria subsequently went on to be the leading 2yo filly of the season, with a Racing Post Rating rating of 128 just 1lb lower than the leading colt Shadow of Light

There were only 5 runners with the Ryan Moore ridden Bedtime Story odds on favourite finishing last of the five. In 4th place was Red Letter who had been regarded as the best 2yo filly in the Ger Lyons yard ahead of Babouche who was already a Group 1 winner.

3rd home was Exactly who went onto win a Group 3 at Leopardstown and the runner up was Simmering beaten just over a length, despite showing signs of greeness but showing great resolution after chasing the strong pace set by Bedtime Story who paid the price dropping away to finish last.

Sometimes the bookies get it wrong ! – these are the prices for the 1,000 Guineas of the 4 fillies behind Lake Victoria .

Red Letter 12/1

Exactly 20/1

Bedtime Story 33/1

Simmering 40/1

Her trainer has stated that Simmering has strengthened up and he couldn’t be more pleased with her and although Soft or Heavy ground is likely to see her withdrawn, she is a definite intended runner. I am prepared to hope we get a dry spring and at 40/1, 1-2-3 with Sky she is worth an interest and getting her in the book, on my side.

With regard to the 2,000 Guineas there are negative vibes about many of the leading fancies and i like the look of a 33/1 chance that is greatly over priced . Once I can confirm its an intended runner I will let members know.

Recommended Bet 0.5pts ew Simmering 40/1 1000 Guineas Newmarket 5th May 1-2-3 Sky Bet

Russ