In this weeks update i will give members a deep insight into my betting methodology for the flat which is centred on the predictable placing of horses by trainers following proven successful strategies.
It is chiefly focused on the William Haggas yard as for the past decade and longer he has the best % consistent strike rate of any trainer in the UK and he also, perhaps not coincidentally, gives his horses time to develop on the track rather than the gallops.
From this start point i will then add horses to my tracker and look to bet when race conditions and the markets suggest they can improve on or match previous form.
Horses go onto my Tracker as follows:
- Trained By William Haggas after having an initial or subsequent run that has shown they have potential to win races – ( you will be surprised how many don’t reach this status) These horses are generally retained for sometime as they nearly all find races given the yards patient policy with their horses.
- Horses trained by other yards that have ran particularly well against a Haggas horse backed up with support from the clock or visual impression that the race was likely to be worth following.
- Horses trained by stables that have a clear trend of success in a certain type of race , time of year or track. These are generally only retained on the tracker for one or two races.
There may only be three requirements but it can lead to hundreds of horses being put on the tracker in a season and more than enough betting opportunities to keep all but the punters that want to bet in every race happy.
Now the season is under way this weekly report will include horses added to my tracker and those removed.
However, if any members would like advise or need to check out any Haggas horse running against horses you are backing or you like the look of but i have not mentioned just add a note to the library and i will respond asap.
Let’s look at the races so far this season where i have recommended bets to give you an idea of the methodology and how the tracker works.
Each year my season starts from 1st March and goes through to the 31st December
Bet No 1 – Witch Hunter 8th March 1pt ew 8/1 1/5 1,2,3 Early price
Result 2nd 9/2
Witch Hunter was added to the Tracker in August 2024 when a very unlucky 2nd behind the Haggas trained Tiber Flow in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes. He remained on the list despite having lost his subsequent 4 races due to not having the right ground conditions and needing the run on his first outing of 2025.
He was a bet because conditions were right at Wolverhampton and the jockey Jamie Spencer was booked for one ride on the card. Importantly the 8/1 was good value.
He ran well just failing to claw back the winner who had the run of the race. However, the form was by some way below the Newbury run and he was removed from the Tracker.
Bet 2 – Good Banter 15th March 2025 7/4 2pt win Early Price
Result 4th 11/8
The Clive Cox 3yo got into my tracker after being heavily supported against the reliable Haggas yardstick Corbine Harvester. He was badly drawn but was forced even wider and given an easy time to finish 5th. He was the only horse from the race I added to the Tracker.
He was sent out at Southwell dropped in grade to a Class 3 in a race where if that market support in the class 2 at Lingfield was justified he was a good thing and the early 7/4 good value. He was backed into as short as 4/7 but then in the minutes leading up to the off drifted out to 11/8.
He ran poorly and looked to have gone backwards from the Lingfield race. He was removed from the tracker.
Bet no 3 – Midnightattheoasis 25th March 2025 16/5 2pt win Early Price
Result Won 16/5
Trainer Phil McEntee each season finds a horse usually a sprinter that runs up a sequence of wins in quick time defying weight rises of 20lb and more.
When Midnightattheoasis landed a major gamble ridden by Rossa Ryan at Wolverhampton despite nearly being knocked over at the start it was a good indication that i had found this years potential improver
Conditions for his next start at Newcastle looked perfect and he duly obliged winning far easier than the neck winning distance suggested and i was confident we would be collecting again.
Bet no 4 – Midnightattheoasis 28th March 2025 3/1 2pt win Early Price
Result Won 3/1
Sure enough Midnightattheoasis appeared three days later and again with Rossa Ryan on board the draw and race conditions in his favour went in again this time by a short head to make it three wins in a row and every possibility win No 4 is just around the corner
Bet no 5 – Kamboo 29th March 2025 10/3 2pt win Early Price
Result Lost
Trainer Richard Hughes had an incredible back end of March and month of April 2024 sending out 20 winners from 41 horses sent off in the first 3 in the market. It has been apparent from interviews that he was aiming to repeat the feat in 2025.
I added Kamboo to my tracker after studying the declarations and noting the high regard with which the stable held the 4yo in and the fact that he was stepped up in trip to 2m on the AW a surface which clearly suited him
Kamboo was heavily backed into 2/1 but was never travelling from the first furlong and was beaten 99L with clearly something amiss. He was removed from the tracker.
Bet No 6 – Palmarion 30th March 2026 6/4 Early Price 4pt win
Result Lost
The John Gosden 3yo entered my tracker along with the 5 other runners that finished in the first six including Crown of Oaks, who ran a great race in third and goes into 2025 as a classic hope, it looked a strong Newmarket market novice stakes.
I waited with Summer of Spring the runner up and a horse on my tracker when he came out earlier in the month mainly because it was odds on but then drifted to odds against at post time. The Andrew Balding horse bolted in giving more than enough evidence that the Newmarket form was good.
My contacts at the Gosden yard confirmed Palmarion was going really well and was ready first time out. The Goldophin team had a record of targetting good horses for this race and with no strong vibes about the opposition i assessed at 6/4 Palmarion was a 4pt bet.
Unfortunately Palmarion went backwards from his first run and gave every indication of being a ‘morning glory’ and was removed from my tracker
Bet No 7 Kinswoman 31st March 2025 2pt win 11/4 BoG
Kinswoman is a very well bred filly and showed enough on her first run finishing 4th to go onto the tracker along with the 2nd placed horse and winner of the race.
She reappeared over the same course and distance again with the 2nd placed filly French Sand in the line up at the odds of 3/1 i thought that given she was certain to improve she could reverse the form with French Sand who was put in as 5/4 favourite. Double Rush was 3/1 alongside Kinswoman in a field of 8 with the others 14/1 or higher.
The family which includes the group 1 winner Audience do show signs of temperament and i expected Kinswoman to drift. What i didn’t anticipate was the massive gamble on Double Rush from 3/1 to 8/11 and the writing was on the wall for our bets at post time.
Sure enough Double Rush totally justified the support winning by 4L from French Sand with KInswoman who ran well 2l further back in third. The 4th horse backed from 14/1 to 9/2 was 9L back
The time was exceptional usually only achieved by horses rated 95plus and i am certain the small losses on this race will be an investment that will return big profits. The first three all go into the tracker and at the top of the list of horses to back.
Bet No 8 Dubai Honour 31st March 2025 3pts win 14/5
Result Won 11/5
Dubai Honour has been on my tracker for 4 seasons showing a profit each year.
For our first bet in 2025 we had to wait 72 hours but such is the resolution of this remarkable 7 yo the delay was only going to be in his favour.
Given his perfect conditions Dubai Honour duly delivered the Group 1 Tancred Stakes in Sydney. I expect he will run in another Group 1 the Queen Elizabeth Stakes but that is down in trip and he will certainly need soft ground to be potentially considered as good as bet as today
March P/L
7 Win Bets – 3 winners at 14/5 3/1 and 16/5- 4 losers
1 Each Way 2nd 8/1
Total Points Staked 19.00
Total Returns 31.60
12.60 Profit
Chrysalis Consortium 
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