I have always followed the rule that to be a good pundit you need Transperency and to be a good punter you need Processes (TaP)
I have covered yesterday the reason for not backing Midnightattheoasis at Chelmsford this evening which as i suspected is now a non runner. Here is why I will not be backing Yaroogh in the Chelmsford 7.30 even though at 11/2 it is a very good price
My last decent bet at the track was on Highfield Princess in a 7f handicap off a mark of 88 she was already a three times course winner. After this race she won at Royal Ascot and then went onto win multiple group races. But in that race even though she should have been a certainty she got beat due to the heavy bias the track puts on pace and position.
As reported yesterday William Haggas has for him a very poor record at this track. He has only previously sent one runner for this race Fanaar in 2019 who was unplaced despite going off 2nd favourite.
My opinion is that Yaroogh who is a tough reliable yardstick is running tonight principally as a gauge to the readiness of the top 3 yo’s in the yard to tackle the key races in the next month. Haggas commented himself earlier this week that although the stable has made a good start ‘ the critical period will be the next 4 weeks’.
If it was at any other track, in the desire to maintain transparency, i would probably put up Yaroogh as an ew selection. But not betting at Chelmsford is very much part of my process and it is not a good enough opportunity to break the rule.
Gosden has won this race three years ago and sent out the 2nd last year and Detain has been backed to justify the hype. However, any thoughts i had of a Gosden resurgence in 2025 were firmly put on the back burner with the dismal performance of Palmarion on Sunday.
If Yaroogh should win and it certainly might I won’t fret about the missed opportunity but take away the very positive fact that the yards top 3yo’s are ready for the action ahead in 2025.
Yaroogh No Bet Recommended.
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