The 4.55 at Southwell on Sunday is a fascinating race involving high quality sprinters including the William Haggas 105 rated Wiltshire in a field of 14 over 6 furlongs. This trip at Southwell has a big bias for horses drawn low and the promise of a very strong pace makes it a very appealing betting race.
Members may assume that i will always favour fancied Haggas runners, that is a wrong assumption and if I feel a rival has a better chance i will oppose them. Occasionally i get it wrong and the Haggas horse wins – thats racing!
Wiltshire will be fancied on Sunday on his AW record and the fact that he has won twice fresh from a break. The last time was on his first run for the yard last April on the turf at Newbury when surprising the yard winning unfancied as a 14/1 outsider off a mark of 93. He disappointed next time out over the same course and distance when going off as 5/2 favourite.
He bounced back 21 days later winning impressively on the AW at Newcastle which resulted in a hefty increase in the weights to 101 which restricted his opportunities but he ran really well to be second in a Class 2 at Haydock on soft ground over 5f. A further rise of 4lb resulted in him being given a chance in Group 2 company, where he disappointed finishing 8th of 9.
He was then given a run back at Newcastle on the AW finishing 3rd to the potentially Group 1 class North Raider over 6f beaten 4l after being slowly away,
I firmly believe that run and his debut outing on Sunday is being geared towards the 125,000 AW sprint final at Newcastle on Good Friday. Its what the yard does best and would have been the plan since that run over the track in November.
The riding and run of Yaroogh at Chelmsford on Friday suggested the yards horses will be better for the race and the stall draw of 10 is far from ideal
The second favourite Ferrous who has a decent chance but has the worse draw of all in stall 14. Which leads me to the favourite Aramram who is ideally drawn in 6 just outside the guaranteed pace setters Diligent Harry and Purosangue.
Aramram ran a great race at Kempton on his comeback narrowly failing to land a major gamble 4/1 – 7/4 by a short head to a runaway leader who got loose from an uncontested lead.
Richard Hannon’s last 8 runners in Class 3 and above handicap races over 7f or less have yielded 3 wins with 2 runner ups a 3rd and a 4th – both runners up have been beaten a head. The only horse out of the frame was in fact Aramram on heavy ground at Newbury which was totally unsuitable. On his favoured Tapeta surface he can extend the excellent run.
If members want the insurance on Wiltshire they can always have a 0.5pt Saver at 5/1 or better – which is what i will do when BoG is offered at 8.00am
Recommended Bet
2pt Win Aramram 4.55 Southwell 3/1 BoG
O.5pt win saver Wiltshire 4.55 Southwell 5/1 BoG
Chrysalis Consortium 
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