The flat season really kicks into gear this week at Newmarket and Ripon followed by the AW finals day on Friday. I will keep members fully updated and expect to be having several good priced bets this week.
William Haggas has this century only sent out 7 runners to compete in handicaps at the Craven meeting. tHe record of the seven is as follows
4 1 4 1 3 2 3.
This suggests they are only sent to the Track if forward and well handicapped. All have been rated between 81-87 and the two winners were well backed into favouritism.
On Tuesday in the 6f handicap he breaks with this pathway running 2 in the race. Elmonjed runs for the Shadwell team ridden by Jim Crowley who heads the early markets at 9/2 races off a mark of 96 and intriguingly More Thunder running first time for the yard since being transferred from Michael Stoute’s off a mark 87 ridden by Tom Marquand is around 14/1
The key is the market but don’t jump too soon, the Haggas horses are nearly always shortened in the overnight and morning markets then drift often out to a price bigger than the first show. There are occasions when it is time to get on early but this is not one of them.
Elmonjed needed a couple of races last season before being ready to win and i expect that to be the case this time.
More Thunder was campaigned by Stoute over a mile plus and this drop down to 6f looks to be an experiment again with future targets in mind. The fact that neither follows the pattern of the other 7 runners over the last 25 years sways me in the direction of watch and wait for the future.
Onto the Group 3 racing and the impressive Haydock 2yo debutant winner Nardra is due to run in the Nell Gwyn 1,000 Guineas trial at 3.35. That win was on heavy ground but there seems few worries about her dealing with the forecast Good to Firm conditions.
The mere fact she won first time out is an indicator of her talent and although the form has not been backed up by the beaten rivals – she won in a canter,
She was pulled out of the Fred Darling at Newbury on Saturday due to a stone bruise but that must have been minor as she was declared for this 24 hours later with Tom Marquand now available.
There are one or two whispers that she maybe something special and the stable won this with Sacred in 2019. Sacred proved to be a non stayer over a 1m and the dam of Nardra, Miss Infinity, also failed to stay beyond 7F. Generally the family has more speed than stamina.
This does not look a strong Nell Gwyn and the form of the two that head the market was far from boosted on lines linking them to Saturday’s Fred Darling fancied runners who were turned over.
I am going to recommend a 1pt ew bet on Nardra at around 13/2 on the opening show. If her price is cut to 4/1 or less then I will have another 1pt win-It is a case of less is more !!.
Haggas sends Goldie Trickett in the maiden at 4.45.The yards record with 3yo maidens and novices is 2-34. Both winners were favourite but 7 other favourites have been beaten.
In fact one of the winners actually finished 2nd for betting purposes but the winner was subsequently disqualified due to failing a doping test!
That 1-34 stat in over 20 years is enough to watch all the novices and maidens the yard sends to Newmarket this week.
The full list is as follows:
Golden Trickett 4.45 Tuesday
Muhaajim 2.25 Weds
Seren Star 4.10 Weds
There are 6 horses entered in handicaps at Newmarket and Ripon on Thursday and i will advise members of possible bets once the declarations and the draws are confirmed.
Recommended Bets Tuesday and Wednesday
On Wednesday the highly impressive Wolverhampton winner Double Rush is pitched into a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 85. 3yo handicaps at this time of year can be very tricky but the colts speed figure and the pace he showed at Wolverhampton is simply to good to ignore. Based on that Wolverhampton speed figure he is fully 8lb clear on Timeform Ratings a highly significant advantage in such a competitive race. Drawn in Stall 14 he will be the pace angle giving the inform Jason Watson the option to blaze a trail down the middle of the track or get across to the stands side rail.
2pt ew Double Rush 1.50 Newmarket Wednesday 8/1
1pt ew Nardra 3.35 Newmarket Tuesday 6/1 + 1pt if backed into 4/1 or less.
Chrysalis Consortium 
Leave a comment