Firstly, a quick look back at yesterday and hopefully some members who read my review on Roi De France when the 4/1 was available took the ew advice. . In races where there is a lot of competition i would rather take the ew and suffer a small loss if only placed. It got beat by a big improver and as for the rest of the card i expect Oisin has been removed from the Easter ‘Egg list’ of many punters !!
A quick mention of the Haggas runners Brewing was predictably outclassed and Carbine Harvester was desperately unlucky not to be placed having found trouble in running.
Of more interest was Sky Majesty who was third at 5/4 about which I advised a No Bet for members. Even though she had 10lb in hand on ratings, it has been clear that despite the winners sent out by the yard the 3yo’s that have not had a run on the AW are all in need of the outing.
In addition, the race was run at a slow pace and turned into a 2 furlong sprint. Members can totally ignore this run and Sky Majesty will be a very interesting betting proposition next time out, probably over 7F.
Onto Saturday and a rare Saturday with no runners from the Somerville Lodge team but i am very keen to back Jim Goldie’s American Affair in the 3.00 at Musselburgh.
This was the commentary of the same race last year when he was drawn 13 in a field 13 on his seasonal debut on good to soft ground
Travelled strongly, prominent, waiting for room over 2f out, switched right over 1f out, pushed along to lead inside final furlong, went further clear inside final 110yds, readily (tchd 9/2)
On Saturday he is drawn 9 of 9 on his seasonal debut at Musselburgh on Good to Soft ground and i also expect the commentary to be replicated with once again a strong pace forecast.
The big difference is he won last year off a mark of 70 and he races today off 94 However in his penultimate race of 2024 he won the Portland Handicap from a mark of 92 which makes that 94 rating more than reasonable. Interestingly in 5th place in the race last season beaten 51/2L was Westmorian off a mark of 75 and that horse won a Class 3 today at Lingfield of a mark of 84, which suggests American Affair winning off 94 is more than possible.
Furthermore, given the training methods and breeding of American Affair there is every reason that the 5yo will improve again this season and possible contest listed or Group 3 sprints.
At Wolverhampton there is a possible danger but also value in taking on Andrew Balding’s horses at present and i am confident the opening markets in the 7.00 Wolverhampton have got the first two in the market the wrong way around. Everything about Baldings favourite in terms of breeding and her races so far suggests she will need 1m4f +. Most top trainers don’t like putting inexperienced horses up in trip too soon in their careers , which is why i believe the Kingsclere team keep her at this 9f trip.
However, Tom Marquand is in top form and heads to the Midlands for three rides all of which look potential winners. I will skip Red Sand in the 5.55 as some of Ed Walkers 3yo’s are needing the run and Slowdownbarny as he will be odds on. That leaves Romantic Spirit in the 7.00 who defied a big drift to win on her 3yo debut and is out again quickly from a mark of 62 just 5lb higher.
Marquand is 2 from 3 for the Menuisier yard on the AW and although there was some early 10/3 there is still plenty of 5/2 around and that will do for me.
Recommended Bets
2pt win Romantic Spirit 7.00 Wolverhampton 5/2
2pt win American Affair 3.00 Musselburgh 11/4
Chrysalis Consortium 
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