Although nobody has been able to give me an explanation why – horses that have won on the polytrack at Kempton oddly always seem to run well at Ascot. So much so that i rarely look outside of runners with winning Kempton AW form when assessing handicaps at the course that are grade 3 or lower rated.
The 1m apprentice handicap that concludes Wednesday’s excellent card based on the AW concept can be fought out between Talis Evolvere and Brasil Power the only two in the field that have winning form at Kempton
The last 4 runnings of this race prove the point:
In 2024 Two Tempting won having been a multiple Kempton Park winner
In 2023 Yaanaas led on the bridle a furlong out and somehow had certain victory snatched away after coming into the race off a Kempton win.
In 2022 Mostawaa came second at 6/1 as a multiple Kempton winner
In 2021 Keyser Zose a multiiple winner at Kempton won this at 12/1
I have a strong feeling that Brasil Power the three times Kempton winner who is the mount of Grace McEntee has been lined up for this race. The 6yo last win at Kempton was off a mark of 80 and he is just 4lb higher off 84. His last two outings could not have been more eyecatching finishing full of running and with the Boughey team in fine fettle i cannot let him go off unbacked on this his first run at Ascot.
The stable star apprentice Jack Callan goes to Brighton which is a concern but Fred Daly and Tommy Jakes could have got onboard and claimed but the experienced McEntee is chosen.
The pace will be fast, hopefully too fast, and Brasil Power from a low draw will get cover before Grace can hopefully deliver a late run as the pace collapses.
It is a speculative bet based largely on the AW track bias so only small stakes to end another successful month.
Recommended Bet 0.5pt ew 6/1 BoG from 8.00am Brasil Power 4.30 Ascot
Onto the Haggas runners – firstly Tuesday and Santorini Star did it well landing the 2pt bet and both Mahra’s Law and Tuesday’s Girl attracted some money and ran well but as you all know by now were running with the future in mind and maybe bets on another day.
A quick mention on Beach Point he ran well I probably under estimated his conqueror just because it was from the Henry Candy yard who went the whole of last season without a winner. When i looked back on the form Double Red won impressively last time out and was entitled to improve again and could well complete the hat trick.
Back to William Haggas on Wednesday and the only runner is the well regarded Purple Rainbow who goes to post in the Class 2 Fillies race at 3.55 which in terms of quality is in all but name a listed race.
Five of the six fillies enter the contest with high reputations and it would be a complete guess to advise a bet. If anything the form of Purple Rainbow’s win looks inferior to that of the favourite Victory Queen and 2nd favourite Gulya
If any of the six win well here they will be Group race bound and Purple Rainbow is therefore not in anyway close to being a bet.
Russ Diary of a Season Weds 30 April 2025
Chrysalis Consortium 
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