The benefits of good ground and the warm weather have provided us with a high level of consistent form unusual for the early parts of the campaign.
Certain yards have followed usual patterns with their horses slow to come to hand, irrespective of the weather. Ralph Beckett and Ed Bethell would be the best examples whose horses turn the corner from the start of May and I expect to be following both these yards closely from now on.
Our main yard William Haggas has a host of runners on Saturday and I expect them to return with a number of winners.
We already have our 4pt bet Field of Gold in the Diary at 3/1 for the first Classic. The Gosden team are very confident of winning their first 2000 Guineas
Very rarely for me there are another 4 bets on the day I will provide reasons for this along with the other Haggas runners I am not backing at Thirsk Newmaket, Goodwood and Doncaster.
13.10 Newmarket Unequal Love
Had this 4yo filly had a race this year she would have been a 4pt Bet in this listed race even at the odds of around Evs which i rarely take, as the plan is to win a Group 1 with her this season
The other highly rated sprinters in the yard have badly needed their first outing, this includes First Instinct, Nardra and Sky Majesty but they have been 3 yo’s and I expect Unequal Love to be more forward but still better for the race. She isexpected to win. However i will be very surprised if our minimum price of 13/8 is available.
13.45 Newmarket Dark Thunder
The original stable choice for this race appeared to be Elmonjed who ran an excellent race on his seasonal debut at the Craven meeting. I suspect we will be backing him at York. However Haggas threw a wild card into the same race in the shape of the former Michael Stoute trained More Thunder who had been campaigned over trips of 1m+. He came up trumps as the 4yo stormed up the Rowley Mile to win going away.
The faster ground is expected to suit the colt who is well drawn in behind the pace setters which is certain to be very strong. More Thunder is potentially a 100+ rated horse over this trip and the 5lb penalty looks insufficient to stop him winning again.
Purosanque was a massive eyecatcher on his first run for Fitri Hay and he was entered this week for the Group 1 sprints at Royal Ascot, but it is asking a lot to give 17lb to More Thunder who is a sprinter on the up.
3pt win Bet More Thunder 4/1 1.45 Newmarket
Also at Newmarket the 4yo gelding Approval will have his supporters in the 2.20. However, he is opposed by two potential Group horses in this handicap in Hand of God and Arabian Light who head the market. I will watch his seasonal debut run with interest.
Finally my nemesis horse Corbine Harvester returns to Turf in a hot 6f 3yo only handicap at 4.40. He will do extremely well to be placed but he will as always give it his best shot.
14.40 Goodwood Believeitanducan
Rossa Ryan has only had an average April largely due to the quiet start of Ralph Beckett but i expect that all to change in May. He has an excellent record when riding for Alan King they combined to win with a nice horse in Kurakka at Chelmsford on Thursday and they can follow up with Believeitanducan in the 2m Handicap at Goodwood.
The 4yo showed great improvement when transferred to the yard winning twice over hurdles. He was a shade unlucky not to win on his flat debut for the yard at Kempton and off a mark just 4lb higher than his last win on the flat in a Class 3 at Beverley.
He will get the run of the race from the front and i expect Rossa to make all.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Believeitanducan 14.40 Goodwood
In the 3.20 Tsuki makes his racecourse debut for the Haggas team- and will be better for the run.
17.05 Goodwood Consolidation
Power Fizz who did us a nice favour at Newmarket goes for the double here. However he got the run of the race given a canny ride from Tom Marquand and is drawn wide here in stall 9 in a race where there looks likely to be plenty of pace.
This will be very much in favour of Consolidation who can complete a double for Rossa Ryan and give Beckett another win.
The 3yo starts the season on a mark of 90 which based on his victory over Fifth Column in a Kempton Novice Stakes looks lenient for a horse that has potential to progress to group level.
There look a few improvers with winning form from big yards in opposition which should help the price but I will be very surprised if they are in the same class as this Wathnan owned colt. After Electrolyte at Ascot they owe us.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Consolidation 17.05 Goodwood
And onto Doncaster.
In the opener at 5.10 Take A Breath has found a very weak Class 5 maiden to start her handicap career off a mark of 73. However that mark on her disappointing 2yo career is not generous and she has to improve to win this off that mark. I suspect she will come in for support and at a likely price of around 9/4 and the fact this is her first outing i will watch her on this occasion without a financial interest.
Archivist runs in the 10f Novice Stakes at 5.45. There are only 5 runners and i think they will bet Evs Mister Rizz 11/10 Archivist 8/1 bar.
A small field with no pace is exactly what Archivist doesn’t want. I am sure the aim is just to get him a win as he is horse with huge promise. I do think if he settles he will win this with ease even allowing for the promise of Mister Rizz but at around Evs and with the doubts about the race being ran at a crawl means I won’t be playing.
Finally further north to Thirsk
Magic Box 1.35 Thirsk. The yards only 2yo runner so far didn’t really show a great deal first time out at Yarmouth. However there is a big stat here that cannot be ignored especially as none of the big Northern or Southern yards that specialise in 2yo winners have an entry.
Haggas’s record with 2yo’s running at Thirsk in May and June is 4 winners a second and a third from 7 runners. 6 of those including the 4 winners came here after an initial outing.
This just has to be a plan and well drawn in 7 i fully expect to see a fully wound up Magic Box become the first Haggas trained 2yo winner of the season.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Magic Box 1.35 Thirsk
In the 3.15 Abloom makes his racecourse debut – this will be better for the run.
Saturday Bets Confirmed.
4pt bet Field of Gold 3.35 Newmarket
3pt win Bet More Thunder 4/1 1.45 Newmarket
2pt win Magic Box 1.35 Thirsk
2pt win Believeitanducan 14.40 Goodwood
2pt win Consolidation 17.05 Goodwood
I recommend taking any 4/1 or 7/2 about More Thunder and will update the other 3 once the early prices have been chalked up.
Russ Diary of a Season.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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