The Reverend – Does he have a prayer?

The opener at the Dante meeting due off at 2.10 on Wednesday has in recent years been targeted by the Haggas team.

Two winners in the last 5 years both heavily backed 4yo’s making their seasonal reappearance.

The only other two from the stable to contest the 12f event were Klondike who was poorly handicapped and Jasmin Bay who was making his first and only start for the Yard.

The race is normally won by a late developing 4yo from yards that take their time with well bred horses that have easy campaigns at 3.

Stoute, Gosden, Varian, Appleby and of course Haggas dominate the list of winning trainers.

Only Haggas has a runner this year from that list and there are only 3 x 4yo’s in a race where the list of winners is dominated by that age group.

Of the other two the inexperienced Al’bosheer has his first outing for Karl Burke and his first run on turf and the other Plage De Havre was almost unrideable last time out at Newcastle.

The other older horses are well exposed average generally Class 3 handicappers ripe for the taking by an improving 4yo.

All this evidence points in favour of The Reverend. BUT ….

He has never raced on ground quicker than good to soft. Had there been cut in the ground on Wednesday he would be a strong 3pt win Bet.

The chances of him acting better on soft ground comes from the influence of his sire Lopa De Vega whose progeny generally perform better with cut in the ground. However his full sister Flaming Stone won on Good to Firm matching her highest rating. So it is no forlorn hope.

The trip, the race set up and draw are perfect and I expect Marquand to be close to the pace and kick for victory 2f out – if The Reverend lets himself down on the ground he wins – if not I am sure he will be given an easy time and drop away. That’s why although around 4/1 is available I am backing the horse WIN Only and reducing my intended stake by 50%.

Recommended Bet 1.5 pt win The Reverend Paddy Power 4/1 2.10 York Weds