The dry warm spring has led to fast ground and consistent form lines. It is no surprise that the results have generally gone in favour of the race by race punters as well as from a pro gamblers point of view. The weather and fast ground looks likely to be with us for the foreseeable future.
The next five days racing commencing 2.10 at York on Wednesday through to 6.45 Newmarket on Sunday provides us with numerous betting opportunities I expect to have a minimum of 8 possible up to 14 bets plus a couple of Ante Post bets for Royal Ascot. These 5 days are in effect trial days for Epsom and Royal Ascot
The main yard we follow that of William Haggas has started brilliantly following tried and trusted patterns I thought it might benefit members of the key principles we have followed with the team and will do so to guide our betting moving forward. They have 50 entries over the 5 days.
Betting Principles:
First time out unraced horses are not struck with the whip and win only if it is possible with that premise in place. That means horses that do win are either very good or have ran in a weak race. Three horses Consecrated, Tsuki and Scoville won first time out and potentially look very useful types. Three other horses ran exceptionally well on debut Pearla, Sea Force and Seren Star look ready to win next time out.
3yo on seasonal debut, the rule has generally been that if the 3yo’s haven’t had a race on the AW this calendar year they have needed their run.
If they have – they have been ready to win. Here are some examples : Power Fizz won on AW won first time out on Turf Art Dealer ran on AW won first time out on Turf. Santorini Star campaigned on AW won first time out on Turf.
Those beaten on seasonal debut that needed the run include very well backed favourites or second favourites such as Sky Majesty, Nadra, Merchant, Crown ofOaks, Archivist, Sir William, Yaroogh, The Kings Falcon, First Instinct.
Aside from Maelstrom who proved exceptionally well handIcapped and won twice in 4 days and Take A Breath who won a very weak Class 5 handicap all the 3yo handicappers have needed their first run of the Turf season having had a winter break and given time to strengthen up.
Opportunity won a valuable Novice Stakes race first time out , marking him down as a potential Group horse.
2nd time out has already seen wins for Raneen, First Instinct, Arabian Force and Gold Cup Day with Cairdeas, National Park, Kinswoman, Purple Rainbow and Tuesdays Child all improving and looking likely to win on their 3rd or subsequent runs.
The older horses – Dubai Honour did what Dubai Honour does and won first time out in Australia. Al Aasy also did what he does and despite looking to have everthing against him won first time out at Sandown.
Godwinson and Bullet Point were prepared early for the Lincoln Godwinson was a fortunate winner of the big Doncaster handicap and Bullet Point rerouted to a Newmarket handicap won first time out.
More Thunder was prepared to try turning him into a sprinter after running as a 8f-10f horse by his previous trainer. The experiment worked really well and he has won his first two races this season.
It is testament to the brilliance of the trainer that these older horses who have a plan in mind are ready to win without a prep race.
However some older horses are left needing their first outing including this year, Unequal Love, Chorus, Sam Hawkens, Tiber Flow, Waleefy, Space Legend, Elmonjed, Wiltshire and Approval.
So far this season we have had 9 bets on horses from the yard here are the results.Our general price rule is if the horse is not readily available at 7/4 it is a no bet.
3pt Bets
Dubai Honour Won 3/1-11/4
More Thunder Won 4/1 – 11/4
Power Fizz Won 10/3 -15/8
2pt Bets
Kinswoman 3rd 10/3-4/1
Kinswoman 3rd 4/1 – 5/1
Santorini Star Won 7/4-6/5
1pt ew
Nardra U/P 8/1 -11/4
Sam Hawkens Won 6/1-11/2
1pt win
Power Fizz Won 3/1
it is possible depending on pace forecast and draw bias we could double that tally over the next 5 days starting Weds.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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