Full on Friday for the Haggas team with two maidens running at Newmarket, 3 runners at York including 2 potential future stars and 5 mainly dark horses at Newbury.
it is a day to stick to the core principles that stand us in such good stead.
Unraced horses and first time out for the season 3yo’s are best watched and noted for the future unless they are in very weak maidens and avoid backing horses that are less than 7/4 in price.
That means we can watch for the future these 6:
Noble Horizon and and Eternal Force in the 2.52 Newmarket although Noble Horizon is a very nice colt that could be good enough to overturn the Goldophin favourite.
Sea Force 3.33 Newbury , Raafedd 4.05 Newbury Valiancy 4.45 Newbury and Crown Imperial 4.45 Newbury.
Sea Force is the most likely winner from that six as it does appear he only has Montpeiier to beat who carries a penalty but the form of his win looks a lot stronger than the Sea Force race.
There are two runners in ultra competitive handicaps:
Altmore in the 5.30 at York and Molten Sea in the 5.55 Newbury. I am very interested in both horses this season as potential 3 or 4 pt bet opportunities
Molten Sea is having her first run since last autumn and Altmore last ran on the AW in January. As the season progresses i am sure both will show form far in excess of the Class 5 and Class 4 handicaps they run in on Friday.
If there is a major gamble on either I may have got it wrong but the races they have been declared in suggest they will need the outing. Altmore is a horse where circumstances dictated a very strange campaign as a 3yo. I am convinced he needs fast ground. Even after winning in a hack canter in a very strange 6f race at Pontefract on Soft ground beating the subsequent prolific winner Mister Sox he was put up 11lb and was campaigned on the AW over 7f and 1m.
I am really keen to back him on fast ground over a stiff 6F ideally in a 0-85. He is in a 22 runner 7f race that closes the card and stall 16 for a hold up horse is far from ideal.
There is also a remarkable statistic – in Handicaps over 7F at York Haggas has sent out 39 runners with 3 winning at 11/10, 7/4 and 4/1. Of those 39 50% have been sent off as favourite including the three that Won. Every reason to watch Altmore and not back It.
That leads us to Consecrated and Crown of Oaks running at York in the 3.13 and 4.55.
They had totally different experiences on their last outings both at Newbury. Consecrated had an easy time from the front winning her maiden on debut with a minimum of fuss. That Newbury maiden has a history of being poor form to follow but this year the 3rd and 4th have won well and the 2nd also ran with credit in a listed race at Ascot which should have been won by Gulya who is also in this race today.
Consecrated is closely matched with Gulya but has something to find with Kon Tiki and Glittering Surf. It is possible Consecrated could outclass this field but on breeding she may struggle to get the 1m trip. I am going to watch without having a bet.
Had Crown of Oaks won as he should have done at Newbury I think he would already have ran at this meeting in the Dante on Thursday. Instead as he remained a maiden they have opted for this Novice Stakes due off at 4.55
I was hoping the presence of Bowmark and the winner of the Newbury race Point of Contact in the line up would enable us to get around 7/4 for Crown of Oaks although in receipt of 6lb from the pair who are carrying penalties it was always touch and go and its opened up 6/5 !!
Avoiding backing the horses that go off too short as per Another Abbott are every bit as important as backing the winners. Crown of Oaks although very highly rated has not proved himself on the racecourse so I am not prepared to break the minimum 7/4 rule.
Although there was some 11/4 about todays only bet on Merchant I have recorded it as a 9/4 winner on the P/L
Friday No Recommended Bets
Chrysalis Consortium 
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