Form Assessment even impacts top yards.

When Merchant won at 5/2 on Thursday at York William Haggas horses were running at a 33% strike rate. In the following 72 hours the yard sent out 18 runners with just 1 winner who greatly benefitted from the withdrawal of a Charlie Appleby odds on favourite.

This included 8 beaten favourites . I had half anticipated this and although we lost 5 points on Saturday on 3 Haggas bets we also avoided 3 or 4 horses that without the standards and strict principles we follow, possibly, could have lost us considerably more. In the end it was a winning week.

The Ballydoyle team had looked invincible at Chester but over the same 72 hours he had 6 winners from 22 – five of those were priced at 1/14, 1/12, 4/9, 1/2, 13/8. The one winner at a backable price was 7/1 but that beat a stablemate priced at 2/5.

He had beaten favourites at 3/10 2/5, 4/5, 4/5 Evs, 11/10. The maths on backing the Haggas and O’Brien runners blind which wouldn’t have been crazy advice given the results leading up to Friday would have shown a loss of around 28pts. Its a perfect example of why ‘chasing’ is a death nail for punters.

So why does it happen ? there is no black secret it is simply because of their status as trainers the form of horses which are largely still very inexperienced is overrated and occasionally the pace of races or ground conditions is not as expected.

In the case of the Haggas 72 hour period the form of Noble Horizon 11/8 Sea Force 10/11 Consecrated 7/4 from 9/2 Al Aasy 9/4 from 9/2, Take A Breath 3/1 – 9/4 was overrated and the three we backed albeit with small stakes Elmonjed, 4/1 – 5/2 Waleefy 7/2 and Al Aasy were effected by non runners which then impacted the pace of the race on fast ground and Elmonjed and Waleefy were forced to run up with the pace which is not what they need to perform at their best.

The over rating of the form of Whistlejacket and Ides of March was confirmed by Babouche trouncing Whistlejacket on Sunday but Ides of March was beaten fair and square by Symbol Of Honour who but for being a gelding and unable to run would have gone close to winning the Commonwealth Cup.

I still think Ides of March 25/1 will run well if he contests that race and would favour him over Whistlejacket 16/1 . That being said if Shadow of Light 6/1 runs he will take some beating.

In summary, whatever the quality of horse and form of a stable the accurate assessment of objective form and race conditions is the key to successful punting. Making assumptions and backing at poor value is the route to loses.

No Bet Monday – Diary of the season.