As part of the peak season service I will normally do a daily update message usually at about 12 noon, however I am busy in meetings on Monday – so here is a written early message.
We have already backed Sir Lowry’s Pass in the Zetland Gold Cup but this meeting is also due to feature a possible future star of the William Haggas yard Crown of Oaks who Tom Marquand gets off the plane from Hong Kong to ride.
The 3yo maybe a non runner if the ground is thought to be too firm – however he is a horse with a big future but a very short price today.
My thoughts on Dubai Honour and his run in Hong Kong he ran a good race to be 4th but it was a lesson in how track position and pace greatly impacts the outcome of a race.
The 7yo was ridden close to the pace and then accelerated to hit the front 3f from the finish in an attempt to draw the stamina out of the favourite. He then couldn’t sustain the pace and was easily overtaken by Voyage Bubble the impressive winner but also near the post by two other inferior rivals.
Had he be ridden to his own strengths he would have sat alongside Voyage Bubble and waited until inside the final 2 furlongs before making his move. He wouldn’t have beaten the winner who had too much speed but he would have finished a clear second.
A quick word on Lake Forest who had his debut run on Good to Soft ground (he must have Good to Firm) at Longchamp on Sunday I couldn’t believe he was at the head of the market in what was a hot Group 3 I was surprised he even ran !
He duly drifted in the market and was given a nice introduction held up last and then running on really well through the line. I believe his main targets will be abroad but if turned out over 7F in UK or Ireland on fast ground he would be something to bet on.
Back to Redcar – look out for a possible gamble in the finale at 5.45 on Desert of the Sea. The 3yo is having his second run with Ed Bethall having been purchased from Ireland. He is off a lowly mark of 60 on his first start in a handicap and comes up against largely exposed poor Class 6 rivals. His dam has produced five previous winners all with ratings in the 80’s.
In the 4.00 Haggas tries again with Another Abbott who was backed into a short priced favourite on his seasonal debut at Yarmouth. He has done very little in 4 outings to suggest even this lowly mark of 68 is justified and my eye is drawn to Boyne Lady who has the pole position in stall 1 and looks the only pace setter. Her form when going down in a photo to Maelstrom at Haydock and then when 5th from a poor draw in a Class 3 at York reads very well in the context of this Class 5.
Roger Fell won this race in 2022 and has a decent record with sprint handicappers at the track with a strike rate of 28%. I expect Rowan Scott to make a b-line for the inside rail and make every post a winning one.
She has a few pound in hand here and with that potentially big advantage of the track position against the rail – she merits an interest to break her maiden tag especially with the yards horses running to a huge 91% RPR over the past 14 days. 3/1 should be on offer.
1pt win Bet Boyne Lady 4.00 Redcar Monday
At Leicester the 3.15 looks a race to watch closely for the future. The Charles Hills yard has has a poor run but landed a gamble on Saturday at Salisbury. The 3yo Huscal has been on my radar after he finished third behind Consolodation and Power Fizz in a hot Goodwood handicap.
He has been dropped a pound for that and wears blinkers for the first time. However, Crestofdistinction and Prince of India were very impressive winners last time out and this looks a hot race with too many potential improvers in the line up to merit a bet.
Finally at Windsor, and a focus on the 750,000 yearling now 3yo William Haggas trained Fitzmaurice ridden by James Doyle for his retainers Wathnan Racing on his seasonal debut in the 5.40 at Windsor.
Can he win this off an opening mark of 70? Yes he could – especially on his first run at Newbury win he finished in front of Christo who has gone onto to win races off a mark of 80, albeit over 10F.
Aftermath who was 2nd then ran 3rd in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. His two other runs were average at best and nothing from either of those contests suggests they were anything more than run of the mill races.
He has been gelded over the winter but our policy of not backing the yards 3yo’s first time out in this calendar year has proved to be right time and time again and even a strong market move won’t sway me in favour of backing him.
Windsor on Saturday evening gave the bookies some of their money back from the losses of the afternoon and the card on Monday especially with Oisin Murphy not riding again has the look of one for the bookies and not for punters. No Bet Windsor Monday.
Confirmed Monday Bets – Two at Redcar
3pt win Sir Lowrys Pass 4.35
1pt win Boyne Lady 4.00
Chrysalis Consortium 
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