With significant rain forecast on Thursday we stick to the Lingfield AW track.
If you backed Gallant at York -plenty did, he was a well backed 7/2 favourite, you may still be in recovery as the 3yo was stuck on the far rail and at no point even came off the bridle eventually finishing 9th of 16.
The form of that race is working out well – however it is the colts previous run when 4th behind the very useful Double Rush over 6f with Invictus Gold and Loom in close attendance that catches my attention.
As a 2yo over 6f Gallant beat West Acre who went on to win a Group 2 in Meydan and Too Darn Hot by 2L who at Windsor this week won a class 3 off a mark of 93. Gallant gets in this 1 mile, class 4 handicap off 84 on the AW at Lingfield 3.50
I am certain the intention is to win here and get enough of a ratings rise to get into the Britannia at Royal Ascot. If he gets a mile which on breeding seems very likely this is a seriously well handicapped horse from a mark of 84 who having shown the speed he has at 6f against some very fast rivals is something to bet on in handicaps over a mile in the weeks ahead.
With Transparent, Lazzielunch, Threatening and Invincible Duke lined up having shown decent levels of form the price should hold up. Invincible Duke with Jack Dace taking off 7lb is the main threat but he looks likely to improve for going up in trip and Gallant who is drawn in stall 8 will be covered up by Murphy and have too much speed for them around the home bend and i expect the 3yo to outclass the opposition.
Our bets on the information from the Balding yard have been good with all recommendations attracting hefty market support. Further analysis has shown that the beaten horses have been 3yo’s not ready to go up in trip to 12f. Although Gallant is up in trip from 7f to 1m, he has a great deal more experience than the horses from the yard that failed to land the gambles.
Diary of a Season – Andrew Balding Yard Bet Record so far as at 31 May 2025
- Candyman Stan 2pt win 4/1 Adv Won SP 13/8
2. Rainmaker 2pt win 9/2 Adv Lost SP 2/1
3. Solar Pass 2pt win 2/1 Adv Lost SP 1/1
4. Old is Gold 2pt win 5/2 Adv Won SP 6/5
5. Best Adventure 1.5pt win 3/1 Adv Lost SP 3/1
Total 5 Bets 2 Won Profit 7.5pts
The William Haggas yard has a phenomenal strike rate at many tracks especially during the peak summer months and at Lingfield on the AW in races over 6F in June 3 of his his last 4 runners have won – the exception was a 20/1 unconsidered outsider.
Keybaar goes to post on Thursday in the 3.20 potentially disadvataged by being drawn wide in stall 10 but the make up of the race suggests that wll not be the case.
Its looks certain that Lazzar in stall 7 ridden by an inexperienced apprentice will set fast fractionals and could well be joined by the horses in stalls 1 and 2
Keybaar who showed good speed from the gate on debut at Kempton with Tom Marquand now on board can get across and tuck in just behind the pace before swooping off the home turn to record his first victory. The 3yo who cost 190,000 guineas as a yearling has already ben gelded and a victory here could be the catalyst for a good career in handicap sprints.
The geldings dam has already thrown two very useful sprinters rated 100 and 97 both excelling over 6f and on AW surfaces. The unraced Shavkat is the potential danger from the Roger Varian yard that has an equally impressive record over sprint trips on the Lingfield AW track in the summer , however none have won on debut.
Diary of a Season
Recommended Bets Thursday
2pts win Keybaar 3.20 Lingfield
3pts win Gallant 3.50 Lingfield.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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