I reckon the true odds are around 500/1 for an unconsidered outsider on seasonal debut in a handicap to pull like a train off a slow pace – to win unchallenged pulling up.
Thats exactly what Walson’s Law did last week at Windsor and the handicapper reacted by putting him up 9lb in the ratings. Not surprisingly he goes to post on Wednesday still able to run under a 5lb penalty so is 4lb well in.
However , there is more to the form than the visual facts which is why he is our next 3pt Bet.
It was his first run for a new stable having moved from George Boughey to Eve Johnson Houghton a trainer who does well with older horses introduced to her yard.
The 4yo had been disappointing for Boughey but had shown potential to be useful on more than one occasion. However the Windsor run was a revelation, the final 2f time of just over 22secs being eased down despite allowing for the fast ground is usually only associated with horses rated 90+. Even with a penalty Walson’s Law can run off a mark of 74 this evening.
Substance to the form is enhanced by the fact that the ultra reliable yardstick Newfangled who had the run of the race finished second.
There are 14 rivals on Wednesday and Charles Bishop will hold up the 4yo from a draw in stall 2. Unlike Windsor there will be a very strong pace which will help it to settle and Bishop will be faced with a choice early in the home straight sit on the inside and wait for the split at the 2f pole or pull wide and power up the outside?
It should be a great watch, clearly there is the chance that Walson’s Law could ‘bounce’ and i do think the gelding may drift to 5/2 – 11/4. I am happy to take the chance given the facts of his Windsor win.
A Lady Bamford owned horse did us a big favour on our last bet at Kempton, Lady Cobham Walson’s Law owner can repeat the outcome this evening.
Diary of a Season Recommended 3pt win Bet Walson’s Law 7.10 Kempton
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