The forecast heavy rain for Thursday looks to have been overstated and the ground at Newbury should remain good. However if Weather Forecasters were punters they would soon be bankrupt. My advice for Thursday is to check the ground conditions before getting stuck in.
Providing Newbury races on ground no softer than Good to Soft i am confident Tom Marquand can ride two winners. In the 3.50 Consecrated can get back on track following her defeat when heavily supported at York in the listed Middleton Stakes.
Backed from 9/2 to 7/4 we advised subscribers not to get involved in the gamble as she had learned little from her debut win, as she made all off a steady pace, and the form was unsubstantiated.
We got it spot on as she was clueless when she was challenged by some useful fillies. However, she showed huge promise staying on strongly after looking likely to fall away tamely.
Back in listed company i expect her to outclass this field. We should get a decent price with the main rival an Andrew Balding trained improver ridden by Colin Keane but Consecrated remains a potential Group race filly and is a confident vote and a 3pt Bet.
Seren Star also runs for the Haggas yard but although running with a deal of promise on her debut the form of the race looks to be poor.
Marquand rides Altmore for Haggas in the 4.25. I am sure we can have a right touch with this 4yo when the race conditions fall in his favour. Once again that is not the case on Thursday. Drawn on the wing in stall 1 is not where you want to be at Newbury especially if it rains. He has the cheek pieces on but I am going to wait until he is well drawn on fast ground ideally over a stiff 6f. His mark is down to 83 and if he is again out of the frame he could go down to 80 and then the blue touch paper will be ready for lighting.
Hardys Hero makes his debut in the Newbury 2.05 – as with all Haggas unraced horses a watching brief is advised.
Marquand can complete the double on the day in the last at 5.33 where Stormy Monday can continue the improvement he showed with a step up in trip to 1m4f and defy a 2lb rise for a very promising run at Haydock when third behind Kurakka.
He won’t mind any easing in the ground and his opening price of 13/2 is too big. The front two in the betting are both Goldophin horses that look potential improvers moving into handicaps. They are not especially well handicapped on their Novice form and it wll come as no surprise to see them drift and replaced at the head of the market by Stormy Monday for the red hot Ed Walker team. The 3yo is well worth EW support at the early prices.
At Nottingham Sea Force goes for a maiden at 2.50 rather than go into handicap company off a mark of 88. That should not be impacted by winning here at odds on. This is what Haggas does to get his horses primed for bigger opportunities and is a horse we can back down the road.
At Yarmouth and the potential Group 1 colt Almeraq makes his seasonal debut in the 2.27.
I really doubt the early markets will take a chance on him and price up the son of Dark Angel out of an unraced mare related to the Cheveley Park winner Fairyland, at odds against. I will though keep a close eye on the prices.
Finally on what is a busy day Tenebility heads to Chelmsford for the maiden at 7.30. He has an each way chance but will do well to cope with Explode the mount of Oisin Murphy who heads to the track for three rides that all look very likely to win. He could have had a full book of rides at Newbury and the fact he goes to Chelmsford is of course a tip in itself.
Diary of a Season Thursday Recommended Bets
3pt win Consecrated 3.50 Newbury
1pt ew Stormy Monday 5.33 Newbury 13/2 or bigger
Chrysalis Consortium 
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