Race 1 2.30 Queen Mary Stakes
The withdrawal of Lady Iman has left this race completely wide open and without really knowing how much these 2yo’s will come forward over the last couple of weeks it is difficult to get any handle on the race.
Aiden O Brien has yet to win this race whereas Karl Burke has won 2 of the last 3. He is bullish about making it 3 out of 4 with the favourite Zelaina who has a similar profile to Dramatised his 2022 winner. But 2/1 was really too short and the drift to 7/2 was expected. i will give the race a miss and wait for better opportunities later in the day.
Race 2 3.05 Queens Vase
Another conundrum with a field of 13 3yo’s running over 14f for the first time. Shackleton with Ryan Moore onboard is favourite (i think that is the only reason ) and Devils Advocate looks sure to improve for the trip and has the best form.
It is not a race i want to get involved in. However watch out for the running of Rahiebb who was second in a handicap behind Merchant last time out.
I will almost be certainly backing Merchant on Thursday. Get ready to back it as this race finishes if Rahiebb runs well here. The price on Merchant will collapse very shortly afterwards if that happens.
No Recommended Bet
Race 3 3.40 Duke of Cambridge
A race that is highlighted by a field of tried and tested fillies mostly running at or below their peak performance levels with one notable exception the Charlie Appleby trained Cinderella Dream who can provide the yard with their first Royal Ascot winner for over two years.
I marked this filly as a banker to progress to be a Group 1 this summer and this Group 2 looks ideal for her next step.
Campaigned largely overseas over trips in excess of a mile she displayed an exceptional turn of foot to win at Newmarket demolishing last years 1000 Guineas winner with ease.
After today we can look forward to some tasty battles hopefully against Lake Victoria I am certain she will prove far better than last seasons 3yo crop which as i keep saying was a very poor year for both fillies and colts. Fallen Angel will ensure this is ran at a fast pace and I expect Cinderella’s Dream to scoot by her in the final furlong and win with something to spare
Recommended Bet 3pt win Cinderella’s Dream 3.40 Ascot Wednesday
Race 4 4.20 Prince of Wales
Another race where i plan to test the value of last seasons leading 3yo colts and take on Los Angeles who will be favourite to confirm the Tattersalls Gold Cup form with Anmaat. As subscribers will know based on this theory i put up Anmaat in the race at 8/1 and he looked certain to win but a lack of a previous run found him out and allowed Los Angeles to fight back a win.
I readily admit that Jan Brughel beating Calandagan at Epsom, poured doubt on my analyses but i watched the race again and despite the general view believe it was a race the French horse lost rather than any briliance on the part of Jan Brughel, although of course the brilliance of Ryan Moore was a actor.
Anmaat i think will struggle on the ground but Map of Stars won’t and the French horse has the natural speed to deal with the grinding power of Los Angeles.
7/1 was available early in the week that is now 9/2 but still a good price in a race that will be set up for a horse with a turn of foot that can act on fast ground. I expect a hefty gamble on Los Angelos so we can wait and back BoG
Recommended 2pt win Map of Stars BoG 8.00am Wednesday 4.20 Royal Ascot
Race 5 5.00 Royal Hunt Cup
30 runners in a race that typically follows a pattern of a winner one year that is well backed and fairly predictable, alternating with a winner that leaves you initially scratching your head asking the question – how can that win a Hunt Cup? In most cases the answer is in the form book,
With Wild Tiger justifying heavy market support in 2024 this years Hunt Cup is set to see the winner be hidden deeper in the form book!
I think there are grounds for that being the case taking a close look at those at the head of the market. Subscribers may be surprised that I am not siding with the Haggas trained horse Bullett Point near the head of the market. The 4yo is possibly well drawn in stall 2 and it provides Tom Marquand to repeat his winning ride last time at Newmarket. However the far rail at the Guineas meeting was something of a ‘Golden Highway’ and the ground at Ascot is unlikely to offer such an advantage nor will he get such an easy lead. Haggas has a poor record in recent years with the last 8 horses from the yard near the head of the market failing to even reach the frame.
The current head of the market My Cloud has long been ante post favourite and is drawn on the other side of the course in stall 32. He is a hold up horse and if a majority of the field as seems likely head over towards the middle to stands side he could well face problems finding a clear route through.
His last win at Newbury maybe as good as he is – he only won by a Neck and the 5lb rise he got left him vulnerable to getting balloted out of this race. If he is as good as reported connections would have wanted a 2 or 3L win with a possible 8lb rise and a guarantee of getting into this contest.
There is a Joseph O’Brien plot job with The Liffey spotted by Tom Kealy (Pricewise ) which has seen the odds tumble from 100/1 now into 13/2 following the booking of Ryan Moore. Drawn 31 next to My Cloud Moore and De Sousa could be looking for the same gaps. Both The Liffey with just 4 and My Cloud with 6 career runs have less than 8 career runs a trend only overcome by Real World in 2021 in recent runnings.
Drawn next to those in stall 30 is the American import Greek Order who returns to these shores in the stewardship of Michael Bell running off the same mark of 95 that he carried when second in the 2023 Cambridgshire.
My idea of the solution? Tokenomics trained by David Marnane who won this with a similar type in 2018 with Settle For Bay. Drawn in 26 he should race more towards the middle but still stands side and get a clearer run through than the inexperienced better fancied horses on his inside.
He did really well to win on seasonal debut over 7f at the Curragh when Marnane compared him favourably to Settle For Bay and immediately announced the Hunt Cup as his next target. He also stated that a line should be put through his only disappointing run last season at York.
The form of his win at the Curragh was boosted by the run of Serialise who next time out ran really well to be second to Skukusa who was among the top three in the betting for the Hunt Cup before being taken out due to the fast ground.
He will be well suited to the step up to 1m on good to firm ground and the 18/1 with Paddy Power 1-7 places is to good to ignore. He is 20/1 with other firms but with less places.
Recommended Bet 1pt ew Tokenomics 5.00 Royal Ascot Wednesday
Race 6 5.35 Kensington Palace
Can the Gosden bandwagon roll on here with the Rainbow’s Edge in the ownership of the King. Maybe ‘Sir John Gosden’ will follow if she obliges!
I was at Ascot and she was visually very impressive winning, despite a big drift in the market, with a great deal more in hand than the winning margin of just under a 1L.
She is well drawn in stall 17 and in race that is more quantity than quality there are probably only a few dangers.
James Fanshawe has an excellent record on the Ascot straight course and the ultra consistent Sky Safari off a mark of 84 is a threat, but those at the bottom of the weights got in off a mark of just 81 and i expect this to be fought out by the 3 at the top of the weights Rainbow’s Edge, Arolla and Arisiag.
Rainbows Edge has been well found and is as short as 4/1 so i am happy to wait for the morning and decide then if she merits a bet. Hopefully the Gosden team will already have enjoyed high level success on Day 1
Race 7 6.10 Windsor Castle
This race throws up a fair few surprises and its listed status usually means the better thought of 2yo’s line up in the Coventry Stakes.
The numbers achieved by the favourite Rogue Legend suggest he would not have looked out of place in the Coventry and he looks a worthy head of the market. However, my biggest bet of the meeting was going to be on Albert Einstein in the Coventry and when that was taken out I have not had a great interest in all the 2yo races at the meeting.
I will study the Windsor Castle over the next 24 hours and update in the Noon bulletin on Wednesday
Recommended Bets on Day – so far.
3pt win Cinderella’s Dream 3.40 Royal Ascot
2pt win Map of Stars 4.20 Royal Ascot
1pt ew Tokenomics 5.00 Royal Ascot
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