I am posting this before the Day 2 action but really pleased with the Day 1 reports and results, going very much as planned apart from the first race which was ran at a farcical pace where the horses in the Kings Parade went quicker over the first 4 furlongs of the track than the horses in the Queen Anne, which left the result completely open to chance.
There is still a long week ahead and there will be bumps in the road. Onto Thursday.
Race 1 2.30 Norfolk Stakes
A race where the early form of the 2yo’s from the UK, Ireland, France and USA need to be assessed before betting opportunities can be considered.
Charles Darwin has the best numbers by far and will be short in the betting at around Evens following the win of Gstaad in the Coventry. Remember what i said about 2yo’s bought at the Breeze Up Sales not backing up their first run that happened to a fair number in the Coventry if you fancy one in the opener on Thursday that is worth checking out.
Its another 2yo race i feel inclined to side step which will probably be swept up by the Coolmore squad and Charles Darwin, who will be around Even money.
No Bet Recommended
Race 2 3.05 King George V
A race that has been the target for Merchant since landing a 3pt bet for us at York where the win was never in doubt. He has subsequently been entered back here at the end of July for the King George and Queen Elizabeth Diamond stakes. I am not saying he has a chance in that Group 1 but it does confirm he is potentially very well handicapped here off a mark of 90.
The form of his York win has been well boosted and he comes here with a major chance that has been enhanced by a wide draw which is greatly favourable on the round course , especially on fast ground.
The yard won this race a couple of years ago with Desert Hero also drawn high in stall 21 and Marquand can replicate the ride and hopefully the victory.
Dangers, there are of course a few, headed by the Ralph Beckett trained Sing Us A Song and Oisin Murphy’s mount Gunship who goes up in trip and there are probably a few others. With firms likely to offer at least 5 places i doubt there will be more than two or three capable of beating Merchant and he is a rock solid ew Bet.
The Coolmore horse Serious Contender is now favourite at 7/2 but there is nothing to fear about the Aiden O’Brien team in handicaps at Royal Ascot his record is 2 from 60 with the last winner in 2019 a 20/1 unconsidered outsider.
Merchant was put in at 8/1 which was snapped up in minutes and the 3yo is now 100/30 in general – i would hope that will drift on Thursday morning for followers that wait for BoG offer and maybe 4/1 or 9/2 is available
Recommended Bet Merchant 3.05 Royal Ascot Thursday 2pt ew BoG
Race 3 3.40 Ribblesdale
Not a race that interests me in any form. 11 fillies at various stages of development most of which look class 2 or 3 handicappers and Aiden O’ Brien sending three likely to be the outsiders in the field.
The average Timeform rating required to win the Ribblesdale is 122, the highest rated in this years renewal is 115, there is going to be some valuable Black Type acquired here, in a race that makes zero betting appeal.
No Bet Recommended
Race 4 4.20 Gold Cup
I have a feeling that Illinois could be the Coolmore gamble of the meeting and go off at Evs or a shade of odds on. As you will tell from my previous reports the staying races in excess of 2m at the meeting hold little interest for me.
It worked out in the Ascot Stakes where the Mullins pair that went off joint favourites but finished out of the frame.
Illinois will go off at around Evs but no one knows really if he will stay until between the two and one furlong poles so its not a race i will get involved in.
No Bet Recommended
Race 5 5.00 Brittania handicap
Consolidation is one of two winning bets from three we have advised from the Beckett yard this season, who have been really slow to hit top form and are in need of a boost at the Royal meeting.
The form Consolidation showed beating Power Fizz at Goodwood when looking in need of the run merits the closest attention. The step up to the mile and strong pace will also bring about improvement.
However the yard also planned to run Brave Mission who has an almost identical profile although finishing 2nd to Power Fizz. However , it has been pulled out – I would have favoured him over Consolidation and it sums up the season so far for Beckett.
There has been a big market move for La Botte who attempts to win this for the Eustace yard who won this with stable star Docklands a few years back who was sent off 6/1 favourite.
Others on my short list include Parole D’oro, Fifth Column and Raafedd in a race where the midnight oil will be required before making a decision on a betting strategy.
Recent runnings of the race suggest those with proven handicap experience are favoured over those coming off wins in Novice Stakes races. It is a race that is an acid test for the style of punting I favour and i will be having a bet.
Further update 12 noon Thursday
Race 6 5.35 Hampton Court
An intriguing Group 3 race where there are three horses rated 110 plus coming up against a few others that have shown distinct signs of being able to reach that level and more. I am not impressed with the French Derby form that Detain and Trinity Melody obtained there ratings. Bowmark couldn’t handle the big occasion and completely blew his chance going off at a 5f sprint speed with Tom Marquand unable to get him under control. The pace then collapsed and under a world class Ryan Moore ride the pieces were picked up by Camillo Passarro who i doubt will run further than 10f again. He only got home at Chantilly thanks to a draw in stall 1 and the excessive early pace.
There is no way Trinity College should be favourite in this he was a 28/1 outsider in the French Derby and was basically a pacesetter for Camillio Passarro.
I am going to side with the improvers and assess this contest to be between High Stock Jack Knife and Glittering Legend currently priced up at 9/2, 15/2 and 12/1.
I doubt the value of either the Wood Ditton or the Chester form of High Stock so have crossed him off. Glittering Legend and Jack Knife have form against some promising horses that suggests they will both be suited by a step up in trip and could each have potential to improve by the higher rated rivals.
I will come back to this race on Thursday ,morning.
Race 7 6.10 Buckingham Palace
English Oak proved to be an outlier last year winning this race as the 10/3 favourite and becoming the first to do so in over 25 years..
This years race looks extremely difficult and despite being completely out of form this year English Oak has been heavily backed to repeat the performance. It could be a big drifter on the day.
The one that catches my eye is Gleneagles Bay who was sent to this track to contest the Victoria Cup and ran a great race staying on strongly. His handler Stephen Thorne is a young trainer going places and the plan would have been to nail a Royal Ascot winner at the earliest opportunity, especially for owners Amo Racing.
My feeling is that the centre of the track maybe the place to be as the week progresses with the impact of overnight watering effecting the ground nearer both rails. Gleneagles Bay is well drawn in 9 with plenty of pace setters drawn around him
David Egan is booked and this looks a rock solid ew betting opportunity to give Thorne is first Royal Ascot victoey
Diary of a Season 1pt ew Gleneagles 6.10 15/2 Bet 365 1-6 Places
Two bets so far any additional Recommended Bets on Thursday before Noon.
3pt win Merchant 3.05 Ascot
1pt ew Gleneagles Bay 6.10 Ascot
Chrysalis Consortium 
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