Despite a losing day yesterday we are still now over a hundred points up on the season which is front of target. However, we have yet to hit a really good run where we start to consistently build the bank by 15 – 20 pts a week.
That is mainly because the same lack of consistency could be said about our No 1 yard the William Haggas team at Somerville Lodge.
By remaining cautious we were very lucky not to have missed an 11/2 winner with Molten Sea and 11/1 winner with Bullett Point. Both losing out in the final strides.
So to put it bluntly the handbrake is off and its Haggas time. There will be as many as seven or eight bets from the yard over the next 72 hours and I am expecting significant profits.
We have started on Thursday with a 2pt ew bet on Merchant which I am hopeful will drift to around 7/2 – 4/1 at the off, so back this when BoG odds are available from 8.00am.
I spent most of the evening looking at the Britannia, in the end I could not escape the visually brilliant turn of foot shown by Raafedd to win at Newbury beating two subsequent winners.
His handicap mark of 92 is more than reasonable and although he is inexperienced i think he has the class to win off this mark.
Arabian Story is a big danger and i am sure he is going to try and win the race from the front starting off in stall 29, as is Consolidation, but Ralph Beckett’s runners have under performed all week. Drawn in stall 14 Tom Marquand can latch onto the stands side group and produce Raafedd with a race winning turn of foot inside the final furlong.
There is a risk that his stamina maybe stretched but i don’t want him to go off unbacked and will have 2pt ew at BOG which should be around 8/1. He has been heavily backed in the early markets
Diary of a Season 2pt ew Raafedd 5.00 Newbury 1-6 places
Haggas runs Arabian Force in the Hampton Court and he is improving with his racing but not as much as Jackknife who appeals as another rapid improver for the Roger Varian yard who did such a brilliant job in landing the Hunt Cup with My Cloud.
This will be my last non Haggas bet over the next 3 days…
Diary of Season 1pt ew Jackknife 5.35 Royal Ascot
On Friday Realign and Supermodel can give the yard a handicap double on the day in the Sandringham Stakes at 5.00 and the Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes at 6.10
Both head the market Realign is as short as 4/1 and Supermodel 8/1. I can’t see how either can not be in the frame if they run to their potential. On Saturday, Archivist is favourite for the Golden Gates and More Thunder heads the market for the Wokingham both at around 6/1
I will put out a post once i know the declarations have been made on Thursday and given the extra-ordinary circumstances it is would be silly not to place a 1pt ew Lucky 15 on all 4
I will also recommend individual stakes for all four.
There will be other bets away from Ascot on what is a crucial 72 hours.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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