Six days is a long time in racing and since Merchant’s win on Thursday its been a roller coaster ride for followers of the Haggas horses.
Although, three or four have ran inexplicably poorly the majority have ran to form but generally without getting the touch of luck sometimes needed to turn narrow defeats into wins.
When this happens it is not the time to go in head down and back runners that should win but with the need to deal with potential obvious barriers to victory, especially when the odds are cramped.
Two such examples occur on Wednesday at Kempton and Thursday at Newcastle. At Kempton the maiden Mahra’s Love is put in at 7/4 to win a 13 runner fillies handicap at 6.00.
She is the yards only runner on the day and with Cieren Fallon in top form. but don’t read anything into the fact that Tom Marquand is not riding – he has a full book of rides at Salisbury which was going to include one for Haggas but that was pulled out at the overnight stage due to fast ground.
Back to Mahra’s Love that 7/4 is far too short for me to get involved.
No Bet Recommended
On Thursday the Lincoln winner Godwinson is 5/2 to give the yard a third successive winner in the Seaton Duval the 3.45 at Newcastle. Godwinson is not the most consistent but is best fresh and has been given a nice break since March. The move to the AW should not be a problem as his half brother Tiber Creek has excelled at the track.
The real issue is that there looks to be no pace in the race and that is potentially a big problem for the Haggas horse and at 5/2 its a risk too far.
No Bet Recommended
Back to Wednesday and Mick Appleby’s improving 4yo Kodi Lion can continue on an upward trajectory at Salisbury by taking out the 6f handicap due off at 3.55.
Appleby took over this horse from Charlie Fellowes and has gradually found the key to the horse Kodi Lion has been improving for each run including a second behind the Wokingham winner Get It. He is only up 5lb since joining Appleby and is on a workable handicap mark.
3 of the 4 rivals all seem better suited to 7F and with the other Dark Thirty likely to set the pace and tee up the race – i expect the 4yo to have too much pace for these and then move onto contest Class 2 handicaps as the season progresses. He was entered yesterday in the Stewards Cup.
Recommended Bet 2pt Kodi Lion
The meeting at Carlisle is full of quality and the horses will race on Soft ground. which will ensure, in all races, the runners will tack across to the outside rail.
These conditions create several possibilities with the potential for Rossa Ryan to have an excellent afternoon, with his rides on Regional Rock in the 2.45, Saqqara Sands 3.45, Rogue Millions 4.15 and Arkelia Flynn 4.50 all having leading chances.
I would rate Saqqara Sands as his best chance as she looks like a filly with real potential to do well in group company later in the season. Rogue Millions is also very strongly fancied.
Further news to follow on Thursday morning…
Diary of a season Recommended Bet 2pt win Kodi Lion 3.55 Salisbury
Chrysalis Consortium 
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