Saturdays recently have been agonising apart from Kisskodi a couple of weeks back getting the race in the Stewards room , we have had Term of Endearment, Regalian and then last week at Ascot More Thunder, denied victory by the narrowest of margins, and Archivist our bet of the week at Royal Ascot balloted out but put in as a reserve yet denied a run even though only 15 of the permitted 16 runners went to post.
its been a good month but could have been great but for fete dealing us some cruel luck.
As usual we will begin with a run down of the Haggas horses in the order they are due to go to post.
1.55 York Archivist
Archivist is fully expected to win this and had this race been run over 10f I would have ignored my minimum 7/4 rule and recommended a 4pt win bet at any price odds against.
However 8f is on the sharp side and all the horses main targets for the season are 10f plus races as was his intended race last weekend. He runs here as the best option to prepare for either a 10f 100,000 handicap at the Newmarket July meeting in two weeks or more likely to return here for the 10f Magnet Cup on the 12th July.
He is drawn 2 but i am sure they will race up the centre of the course and he will need to lie handy and then outclass the field to get up inside the final furlong. However he maybe denied a clear run from that draw and it could get tight on a track where on fast ground the pace always holds up.
( Already Advised 0.5pt ew 14/1 John Smiths Magnet Cup)
2.25 Criterion Stakes
When Formal and Poborus where declared in this race alongside Lake Forest i fully expected a price of around 9/4 to be available for the Haggas 4yo. We waited most of last season for Lake Forest to get his conditions (7f on fast ground) and it never happened, twice being pulled out on the day of the race when the rain arrived in the morning.
The conditions are spot on for Saturday but I actually wish he wasn’t in the line up because I think Formal could be a Group 1 filly in waiting. Its hard to ignore how much improvement some of the ex Sir Michael Stoute trained horses have made since he retired- More Thunder and Never So Brave being the prime examples – Archivist is another and Formal can win or go close in this and come back to York to contest the new Group 1 City of York stakes in August for which this is an ideal trial.
There has been a big move for Paborus who has real potential but this is a very strong Group 3 and he is unproven in this class
Formal when she arrived from Newmarket, was initially considered by the Balding team as a potential Guineas winner and I have backed her ante post at a price of 4/1 and because of the support for Lake Forest has drifted to 7/1 I will save on the Archivist, Lake Forest double which should pay just over 4/1.
Recommended Bet
Formal 2pt win 7/1 BOG
1pt win Double Archivist 1.55 Lake Forest Both BoG
2.50 Windsor Magic Star and Tenability
Some of you may recall a comment I made before a race at Wolverhampton earlier this month – ‘when Gosden and Haggas send multiple entries to contest the same maiden at a minor meeting – beware’!
That day despite all the money being for the Gosden favourite the outsider Nahraan at 12/1 came and won the race, – that horse is now considered possibly group class.
In this race they run four of the eight runners. I have no idea which will win accept that one of them very likely will !! One word of caution the early market moves are often misleading.
No Bet Recommended
3.40 York Brotherhood of Man
It is conceivable that Tom Marquand could be on a 4 timer when he gets on board this Haggas trained 2yo , who showed great promise on his debut at Haydock finishing 4th behind one of todays rivals Commanding Officer.
There are three or four others that come here on the back of promising runs and an unraced Karl Burke newcomer
However I thought Brotherhood of Man ran with more promise than the Appleby horse and for certain would not be coming to York unless Haggas thought he had a winning chance.
It is well known that the yard are extremely patient with their 2yo’s but their record at Yorks summer meetings is superb. In June July and August with 2yo’s sent off in the first 5 in the market in Novice and Maiden Stakes he has a 50% strike rate.
The yard have only sent three 2yo’s to the track in June since since 2017 two won and one was third.
Well drawn in Stall 1 Brotherhood of Man is owned by the King bred on Australian bloodlines and the dam was also trained by Haggas for the Queen.
Brotherhood of Man is available at 8/1 compared to Commanding Officer at 10/3 which is nonsense.
The Jack Channon runner Crest Of Fire is the subject of hefty support but is far too short on the back of one run in a good race but where he showed he had a lot to learn and weakenend in the final furlong.
Its a tough race and it could be there is a potential group horse lurking in the opposition but I am sure we will get a great run from Brotherhood of Man who aims to give Haggas his first 2yo winner of the season
0.50pt ew Brotherhood of Man 4.20 York 8/1 BoG 1-2 places
4.35 Windsor Silver Chamber
Being closely related to the Willie Mullins trained top class multiple winning Absurde , Silver Chamber is bound to attract support upped in trip to 1m 3f and racing in a weak looking class 5 handicap off a mark of 67.
She had shown very little in the way of promise until last time at Goodwood but all the 3yo’s in this race come here with very similar profile and with her also having cheek pieces fitted on reflection i am going to let her run unbacked.
No Bet Recommended.
Other Races
The Andrew Balding trained Gallant won for us on the AW at Lingfield and I have the 3yo marked up as a horse capable of winning off marks in the mid to high nineties.
Connections clearly agree as they have entered him in the International Stakes at Ascot where that level will be the minimum required to get into the contest.
He races at Chester on Saturday off a mark of 89, over his perfect trip of 7f and was all set to be a 3pt bet until the draw!. He is 9 of 9. Balding has an outstanding record at Chester especially in handicaps.
He has won 16 races from 40 contested over a trip of 7F or 7.5 furlong.
The winning stall positions have been:
11 of 13, 1 of 9, 1 of 10, 8 of 8, 3 of 13, 7 of 9, 4 of 8, 7 of 8, 5 of 9, 3 of 7
4 of 6, 3 of 7, 4 of 7, 1 of 12, 2 of 4, 7 of 7
When you take the numbers down to those that started 1,2,3,4 in the betting the strike rate is 16 from 32 – 50%
There is sufficient data to suggest that stall 9 is not insurmountable and whilst Jason Watson will have to be at his best i am going to have a 2pt bet if he had been drawn 5 or lower it would have been a 3pt bet. This is a horse far better than his current rating. The draw means we are getting 3/1 instead of 2/1.
Recommended Bet 2 pt win Gallant 16.10 Chester BoG 7/2
On a very busy day i will provide another update at Noon to pass on any other news and or bets to strike.
Diary of a Season Saturday 28th June 2025 – Confirmed Bets
2pt win Formal 2.25 York BoG
1pt win Double Archivist 1.55 York Lake Forest 2.25 York BoG
2pt win Gallant 16.10 Chester BoG 2.25 York 1,2,3 places
0.5pt ew Brotherhood of Man 4.20 York BoG 1,2 places
Chrysalis Consortium 
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