Thursday Morning Update

It is a big few days for the Somerville Lodge team with all eyes focused on landing a big handicap double on Saturday and also giving a boost for retained rider Tom Marquand whose current win ratio is not what would be expected from a top jockey.

With the season at almost exactly half way his stats for the yard read:

24 wins 121 rides – strike rate of 21%. A Level stakes loss of (42.58)

Compare this to the other top retained jockeys:

Ryan Moore ,Aiden O’Brien runners in the UK

16 wins 40 rides – strike rate of 40%. A level stakes profit of 17.00

Oisin Murphy for Andrew Balding

44 wins 170 rides – strike rate 26%. A level stakes profit of 19.61

William Buick for Charlie Appleby

33 wins from 96 rides – strike rate 33%. A level stakes loss of 0.06

Keiran Shoemark ( before May) for the Gosdens.

14 wins from 51 rides – strike rate 27%. A level stakes profit of 2.21

With our focus on runners from Somerville Lodge his dip in form is having an impact on our profit although we are on track for the 200pts target, it could have been so much better.

The ride on Molten Sea on Wednesday going alongside narrow defeats of Terms of Endearment and More Thunder are races a top form Marquand wins. Still as they say ‘form is temporary class is permanent’ and the July meeting is the perfect opportunity for him to set up the second half of the season.

Onto Thursday,

The biggest mover of the morning is for the Appleby Buick team and the 2yo filly Crimson Rose in the 4.10. The Newmarket July meeting is traditionally a very happy hunting ground for the Goldophin team and their record with 2yo’s going off in the first 4 in the market is 40%.

Today they are represented by Maximised in the 2.25 as well as Crimson Rose. Maximised is short enough but although we missed the fancy prices Crimson Rose is worth an investment.

The early favourite was the George Boughey trained newcomer ridden by Ryan Moore. The Boughey yard alongside the normal stable jockey Billy Loughnane is the most overrated yard in racing at present. Their record with 2yo’s here in July is 0-12 and they are a yard to take on.

Crimson Rose was a huge eyecatcher at Chelmsford and the big market move for a 2yo from this yard at this meeting is very significant.

Recommended Bet 2pt win Crimson Rose 4.10 NewmarketBOG

The big betting race of the afternoon, brings us back to the Haggas Marquand combination and their runner Realign.

At Royal Ascot he was one of several big gambles in handicaps on Wathnan horses, 8 were sent off 1 or 2 in the markets over the 5 days including a gamble on Blue Brother from 50-1 into 13-2 in the Hunt Cup. Only one succeeded French Master and that was steady in the market throughout the day.

To a large degree i think the moves can be ignored and Realign chance is based on the step up to 6F and getting a strong pace to aim at. My concern is the horses tendency to hang right under pressure maybe an issue for Marquand if he has to come through horses. Its tricky the 3yo could be different class to these and with 5 places available i cannot let him go unbacked and will place a small bet at 9/1 ew 1-5 places.

I greatly fear Double Rush who has been heavily backed this morning from 6/1 into 4/1

Looking ahead to Saturday and just to confirm that Archivist has been confirmed in the John Smiths Cup we are on at odds of 18/1-14/1. I think he may well go off less than 3/1 let’s hope he can get the job done.

Thursday Bets

2pt win Crimson Rose 5/2 generally BoG 4.10 N

0.5pt ew Realign 3.00 N BoG 9/1 (1-5 places)

Top up Saturday

2pt win Archivist 7/2 or better 3.10 York