Its been to great to have the time to assess and reflect on the racing over the last few weeks. We are just down on the month however a look at the outcomes builds rather than diminishes confidence.
In a vast majority of the wagers which have not returned as predicted have been beaten by unusual pace scenarios rather then poor performances from the selections.
Top of the list is Notable Speech. As i thought he chased a pace set by North Raider that was befitting an USA quarter-horse race and would have needed to have been as good as the great Dayjur to have won.
Equally the John Smiths Cup could not have been predicted to have been run at a pace more befitting a 2m Novice hurdle around Fontwell. This allowed the winner to get across from his draw of 19 without raising a sweat, which, before the race, had put off even his most ardent supporter. Nor was it predicted that Archivist would make the running, even though it does appear to have been pre race planned.
I think Archivist ran really well especially given my view that the ground was too fast for him. He remains one to follow.
The Bedouin Prince race at Newmarket on reflection was contested by the three 3yo handicappers most likely to capture top handicaps at the next major festivals, in Bedouin Prince’s case upped to 10F. Fifth Column would have won the Britannia drawn higher and could be a live Cambridgeshire contender and Raafedd is a horse on the up who looks ideally suited to York.
The Friday results were disappointing but possibly didn’t get the slice of luck needed. Endless Victory was nearer to the front, in another race ran at pace where the leader ( the well backed favourite) went too fast, and having challenged early got nabbed by one that came from out the back.
The winner Onefromthegutter timed his run perfectly but Endless Victory was battling back near the line and I am sure had he started his run alongside the winner he would have won. He is interesting for the Ebor although beware of Irish trained plots !!
First Instinct at York didn’t improve as anticipated but would not have beaten the impressive winner Sayidah Dariyan who is one to follow.
At Ascot Sea Force was not best placed to challenge off a slow pace and couldn’t get going quick enough and was touched off in a 3 way photo. That was predictable and I factored in the risk with a lower stake. He is another that could pick up a fast run handicap at one of the big meetings.
Finally our winner More Thunder who scrambled home in the Bunbury Cup. I am sure this is not the end of his winning run. Marquand conceded 3 or 4 lengths to get right across from the far rail from stall 13 to the favoured near side rail and produced a really tough performance to collar the runner up Aalto who had won this race in 2024 easily by 2l off a 1lb higher mark.
The most impressive winner of the 3 day meeting was Scandinavia, he was scintillating in the Bahrain Trophy and there is a strong argument that suggests this performance is the best of the classic generation, surpassing Lambourn ( the duel Derby winner )
There is still 5/1 Bet 365 available for the St Leger 4/1 generally and he is well worth a 2pt win Ante Post Bet.
He is entered into the Goodwood Cup but Ballydoyle has Illinois ear marked for that and I have a strong feeling he will go to the Leger, possibly with Lambourn rerouted elsewhere. Where ever Scandanavia runs next he will be a really good bet.
Recommended Ante Post Bet
2pt win Scandinavia St Leger 5/1 BET 365 4/1 Generally
Chrysalis Consortium 
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