After a day whe we got 7/4 about a 4/7 on chance that ran 20lb below her best and then followed it with our only other bet planting herself in the stalls losing 20L and still finishing second, in the words of Rick Astley ‘ Things can only get better’.
The Haggas team has a full squad of 11 going to post on Friday but the best bet is in the race of the day at Hamilton.
This limited stakes race due off at 7.10 has a distinguished history of being won by horses that progress to Group level, Postponed, Defoe and last years winner the Andrew Balding trained Kalpana amongst the roll call of winners.
It looks a cracking contest again this season set to be run on perfect ground. The unbeaten Nahraan testing his potential against the improving 3yo’s Rogue Millions and the Haggas trained Arabian Force along with another Andrew Balding trained filly Secret Love.
Pace will be critical I expect Secret Love from a wide draw in 7 to go forward and Arabian Force from the inside stall 1 will also track the pace. The 3yo was held up last time at Royal Ascot behind Trinity College given a ride by Marquand that he would take back. Fully 10 lengths off the steady pace he stayed on to be beaten around 7L with plenty of running left.
Following that run he was made joint favourite with stable mate Archivist for the John Smiths Cup but was withdrawn at the overnight stage, with the decision made to come here where the slower ground will suit the 3yo. Both his winning half brother and half sister were better on the AW surface and on turf slower rather than quick ground.
If the colt is better on this good ground he has a major chance here, given i expect him to be in the box seat and is expected to improve as well for the step in trip.
On breeding the extended 1m 3f is a doubt for the favourite Nahraan who has been a big eyecatcher on both outings where he is unbeaten.
He could be the Group 1 horse for 2025 but its a big step up here and the son of the miler Make Believe out of a mare who was also best at a mile is on a fact finding mission. In an interview after his win at Windsor Oisin Murphy seemed reluctant to say he would be suited a trip beyond 10f. He will be heavily backed early doors but possibly drift later in the day.
Rogue Millions cannot be discounted but on a line through stable mate Noble Horizon he has an awful lot to find with Arabian Force and will probably be best placed to take advantage if those at the head of the market fail to see out the trip, as he wlll definitely stay every yard.
Square D’Alboni is a horse of promise but the Ralph Beckett team have had problems with only 13 runners ( 1 winner ) this month and the yard needs to turn around a really disappointing run of form before their horses can be considered as betting propositions.
Haggas has a strike rate bordering on 40% at the track and at around 7/2 Arabian Force is decent value given the expected improvement on better ground, plus he should get the run of the race and doubts about the favourites stamina.
Cieren Fallon heads North for 2 rides for the Haggas yard but this is by far his best chance and he comes here in preference to other fancied runners at other meetings.
On a busy day the this looks the best value on offer for any of the yards runners on the day and is a confident selection.
Diary of a Season 2pt win Arabian Force 7.10 Hamilton BoG
I will deal with the rest of the Hamilton card before moving on to the other meetings.
In the big sprint at 6.35 Double Rush surely has this race at his mercy off a mark of 90 and running on good ground. There is pace across the track but Double Rush is ideally positioned in stall 6 to track the pace on the inside and he should be too good for these in the hands of Daniel Tudhope who stands in for the injured Shane Foley.
The problem is the price and given recent results in these big sprints i am loathe to take anything less than 3/1 and don’t think Double Rush will be much bigger than 2/1. I will watch without a financial interest.
Fallon and Haggas team up with one more runner on the card. In the 6.00 Nursery Magic Box attempts to follow up her Kempton win from a 5lb higher mark. I thought she was the only horse in the race that wanted to win that afternoon and those at the head of the weights look to have more potential – she was due to be sold at the Tattersalls sales in July but was withdrawn as her value increased by her win at Kempton.
No Bet Recommended
9 more runners to cover. I think 5 of these will win but the evening markets have them priced up at 6/4 or less.
Starting at Newbury where Tom Marquand has 4 rides and heads here principally to get on board the 2yo filly Sing the Blues in the 3.35. Her run on debut at Yarmouth behind the Highclere Racing owned Radiance, who after the race was put in the 1,000 Guineas betting at 33/1 was about as promising as you can get from a Haggas 2yo first time out.
This is a Newbury maiden and there are well bred unraced dangers from the Balding and Varian team that fall into the ‘could be anything’ category, but they will need to be smart to turnover the Space Blues filly who showed plenty of speed at Yarmouth.
Its not a time to go crazy on Haggas 2yo’s as they have been slow to come to hand but she is worth a bet to put right the wrongs of the filly Magical Idea yesterday.
There has been no real early support for the newcomers and unfortunately only 5/4 is available this morning which is very short.
No Recommended Bet at 5/4
Marquand also rides a juvenile in the 3.00 the colts 2yo contest aboard Art Lover but the son of Hello Youmzain will need to make marked improvement from his first outing. The fitting of a tongue tie at this early stage is not a good sign and with potential high quality debutants in opposition – this is a race to watch.
Marquand opens the card in the 2.25 aboard the 3yo Earthwatch in the 1m handicap.
We chanced our arm with him last time out at Newmarket where we turned a small profit after he ran OK to finish 3rd. However he was noticeably weak in the market that suggested his mark of 69 wasn’t considered generous by the yard. He has been dropped 1lb for that run but the form has so far been let down.
This is a very similar contest and I expect Marquand to make more use of his stamina and set out to make the running. He could well make the frame again but i thought we got lucky last time the big drift pushed the odds out to 11/1 and suspect there is a dark horse lurking down the weights and i will leave him alone this time especially at a price of 3/1.
No Bet Recommended
Finally at Newbury Golden Handshake turns out in a trappy little 1m 4f handicap at 5.20 where i expect he will go off favourite. The 3yo was withdrawn at Southwell after spreading a plate at the start. That was a 0-90 Class 3, today as he is down to a Class 4 0-85. 3yo’s at this time of a year hold an advantage over their seniors especially over trips in excess of 10f.
Golden Handshake was one of three horses owned by the King in training with Haggas that were originally due to be sold at the July Tattersalls sales.The fact all three were withdrawn suggests there is a belief that their value can be increased with more racing. Typically he will be short in the market because of the trainer jockey combination but the decision not to send him to the sales suggests this opening mark of 84 is considered workable.
No Bet Recommenced at price of 5/4
At Haydock the bookings of Callum Rodriguez and Oisin Orr suggest both the yards runners have a leading chance. Oisin Orr has a 40% strike rate when riding for Haggas and he rides Russian Crescendo in the 4.25 with the filly finally stepped up in trip to the 14f she needs.
She is a filly i have never liked and the two races she won fell apart. I always thought her handicap mark of 84 was too high and although this step in trip could leave me with egg on my face, i will stick to my guns and her price of just 5/2 maker her even less appealing.
No Recommended Bet
Rodriguez has a strike rate of 37% for the yard and he is given the job of getting a first win for Headmaster in the maiden at 5.00 . The gelding showed terrific pace at Windsor but didn’t quite see out the trip.
The opposition has some experience but the 4/5 opening price means No Bet
No Recommended Bet at odds of 4/5
At Nottingham in the 4.00 Camtank can give the penalty away and follow up his Lingfield win. I was really impressed with the way he powered through the line and this weeks rain will be in his favour. It is significant that Farragher comes here rather then Newmarket for the ride on Scoville who is a 4/11 on favourite.
Again the price of Evens means No Bet Recommended.
No Recommended Bet at Evs
Finally back to the July course and the evening card at Newmarket where Richard Kingscote takes the ride on Scoville who also looks to defy a penalty in the Novice stakes at 5.50.
I am always suspicious of the value of the form when a Haggas horse wins on debut and that has certainly not been proven subsequently by those behind him at Windsor.
The 3yo is short at 4/11 and although he could still be very good i will watch and wait for another day.
No Bet Recommended
Finally Raneen turns out quickly in the 6.25 after disappointing at the July meeting. She looks to be in the grip of the handicapper and will need to come down a few pounds in the handicap before we seriously get involved. She is down in grade and in trip here and has attracted support overnight but is held by Lady of Andros on York form who is better drawn.
No Bet Recommended.
Confirmation of Bets for Friday
Definite Bet 2pt win Arabian Force 7.10 Hamilton BOG
Provisional Bets that would have been recommended if odds of 7/4 or bigger is available it looks unlikely.
Sing the Blues 2pt win 3.35 Newbury Current Price 5/4
Golden Handshake 2pt win 5.20 NewburyCurrent Price 5/4
Headmaster 3pt win 5.00 Haydock Current Price 4/5
Camtank 2pt win 4.00 Nottingham Current Price Evs
Chrysalis Consortium 
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