Already Posted Thursday
‘An excellent day of racing on Saturday has given us two Ante Post opportunities now that the declarations are out. I am going to back these today ( Thursday ) and will probably add an ew double on the pair Saturday when more places will be offered.
More Thunder aside the results in these big Saturday handicaps have been unpredictable and I will probably have two more 3pt bets on Saturday on races that offer more clear cut opportunities. But this pair cannot go off unbacked as despite the field sizes, they look weak races for the grade.
Firstly, in the big sprint handicap at York due off at 2.00, I am happy to take the 7/1 on Elmonjed. The draw in 10 will give him ample opportunity to tack onto the pace in a race where low numbers look to hold an advantage from the higher drawn numbers.
For sometime i have thought that, as was the case in 2024, he will be ready to deliver on his 4th outing, when he won a big sprint handicap at Windsor .
The form of his first two outings ranks among the best 6f handicap form this season and I thought his last run behind Grand Karat was one with the future in mind. The drying ground will not be a problem neither will it matter if it stays on the easy side.
This looks to be Elmonjed’s big day and i expect the 4yo to give us a great run with a majority of the field looking past their best or too high in the handicap. The danger lurking is Toyatomi a Davide O’Meara French recruit, although the drying ground would appear to be against the 4yo who has to give 6lb to Elmonjed which in theory means he will need to be on a par with More Thunder which i very much doubt.
Diary of a Season 1pt win Elmonjed 2.00 York 6/1 – 7/1 generally.
Over at Ascot the Betfred handicap at 3.35 gives Bullet Point a chance of compensation following his narrow defeat by My Cloud in the Hunt Cup over this course and distance.
His main rivals would appear to be the 3yo’s that finished near the front of the field in the Britannia Handicap. However i think they were flattered racing in the group that raced near the stands rail and the best three in the Britannia were Fifth Column, Shameful and Consolidation who raced on the far side.
The 4yo Sisyphean will put the pace to this race from stall 1 and I expect Marquand to track the pace from Stall 9 on Bullet Point and then outclass the field and win with a bit in hand.
This does not look a strong race for the grade and given the belief that My Cloud who narrowly got up to beat Bullet Point by under a length in the Hunt Cup is considered a Group 2 horse, the Haggas runner should still have plenty in hand off a mark just 3lb higher. He was really tough at Ascot and in what is an inferior contest 7/2 looks a decent price.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Bullet Point 7/2 3.35 Ascot generally.’
Additional Bets
Berlinetta kicks off the day in the 1.25 at York a 2yo Novice Stakes race that looks a weak race for the track. His dam won at York over 6f on Good to Soft ground as a 2yo and he looks sure to be well supported.
He was the subject of support at Newbury on debut ( some punters never learn ) backed from 5/1 to 3/1 before running green hanging to his right inside the final 2f. The winner narrowly failed to follow up under a penalty and the second was stable mate Concert ridden by top young Japanese rider Miral Iwata who is spending some time at the yard.
He takes over on Berlinetta on Saturday and i am sure the yard will be keen to get him onboard a winner. The form of his Newbury run was given a big boost by Princess Petrel who won impressively at Ascot on Friday.
The colt will improve for that run and the yard will be very keen to get Miral on a winner at 4/1 he is worth a small interest
Recommended Bet 1pt win Berlinetta 1.25 York
Lou Lou’s Gift heads for the Group 3 Valiant Stakes the 2.20 Ascot and looks to have a lot on her plate I marked her up at 12/1 – 14/1 chance and she makes no appeal at the 7/1 on offer. Hopefully she runs well and gets some black type.
No Bet Recommended
In the 3.15 at Chester Showering takes her chance in the 6f sprint handicap. She ran with promise dropped back to 5f at Southwell last weekend but she will be well suited to this return to 6f.
She is not badly drawn in stall 5 but there is strong pace from the horses in stalls 2 and 4 and will probably need a pace collapse to get her head in front.
That is conceivable, but Chester is a course for specialists and as this is her first experience of the track on balance i will let her run unbacked.
No Bet Recommended
The yards last 3 runners on the day merit close inspection.
in the 4.45 at Ascot Tenability can add to the yards impressive strike rate when running 3yo’s in handicaps over 12f at the track.
Over the past 5 seasons they have sent 19 3yo’s to contest 14 handicaps over 12f (in 5 they were doubly represented) and have won 9 !!!
Add to the mix the improvement shown by the son of Frankel when winning his maiden last time out and it will be extremely disappointing to see him get beat. There are 8 runners but nothing bar our selection looks to be improving and touchwood we may get around 2/1.
Recommended Bet 3pt win Tenability 4.45 Ascot
Cieren Fallon rides to at Windsor where the ground looks to have dried out from Monday when the evening card proved to be a ig disappointment for us.
In the Novice Stakes at 5.45 Desert Treasure will be a short price to defy a penalty to follow up her debut victory at Yarmouth. There is a golden rule with Haggas first time out winners, they are other Group Class Baaeed, Sky Majesty and possibly Scoville or the race turns out to be very weak and the horses are overrated (Consecrated)
By bringing out Desert Treasure under a penalty, taking on the colts just 10 days after her debut win which is very rare for an inmate of Somerville Lodge i think they think she may be a bit special and want to get another win in to her before heading to York in August.
She will be short so no bet recommended.
Finally Another Abbot is entered in the 6f handicap the 8.15 at Windsor. The ground will need to be good or faster as he was pulled out when the ground turned soft at Newmarket last Saturday.
He does face a rapidily improving filly in the Michael Dods trained Novamay but she has been put up a huge 21lb for her wide margin wins but with Rhys Elliott taking 5lb off its not beyond the realms of possibility she could complete the hat trick given the improvement shown in those victory’s.
The form of Another Abbot’s Newmarket win has been boosted by nearly every horse from the race and he may just have the edge over Novamay.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Another Abbot
Summary of Bets for Saturday
1pt win Berlinetta 1.25 York
1pt win Elmonjed 2.00 York
2pt win Bullet Point 3.35 Ascot
3pt win Tenability 4.45 Ascot
2pt win Another Abbot 8.15 Windsor
Chrysalis Consortium 
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