The brilliant Goodwood meeting starts on Tuesday with the weather looking set fair until least Friday – beware betting early on Saturday’s Stewards Cup as ground conditions may change dramatically.
Most of the Haggas horses running in the big festival handicaps have been well fancied and backed accordingly but it is fair to say that all in all luck has not been on there side especially at Ascot, where More Thunder and Bullet Point twice have been robbed of victory on the line.
They have a very strong team assembled to tackle the ups and downs of Goodwood and they kick off at 1.20 on day one with the impressive Chester winner Castle Cove looking to follow up his win on his seasonal debut at the Roodeye.
He drifted from an opening 3/1 to 8/1 as he was thought to have been better for the run and was badly drawn on the wide outside. However, he made mincemeat of the opposition, showing a good turn of foot to win going away and fully deserving of the 8lb weight rise given by the handicapper. The form has worked out really well with the runner up Grey Cuban winning very easily and re opposing on identical terms.
What is very encouraging is his wide draw in stall 13. The early pace is all with those drawn low and the main danger Jolly Jack Tar from 3 will have to go forward and chase the pace, with others at the head of the betting Bolster and Tony Montana.
It look set up for those drawn wide and I expect Marquand to deliver the 4yo fast and wide to win in the style of the yards previous winner of this contest Alfarris in 2018. Apart from running a 25/1 outsider in 2019 that was the last horse from Somerville Lodge to contest this race and it has all the makings of a Haggas handicap plot.
Goodwood can be notorious for hard luck stories and i tend to back ew if the odds allow.
Therefore I recommend 1pt ew 4/1 (1-5 places) with Betfair Castle Cove 1.20 Goodwood Tuesday.
The Group 2 Lennox Stakes at 2.30 sees Lake Forest on a mission to restore his reputation after failing to follow up his run in the Queen Anne when not turning up in a Group 3 at York 11 days later.
That was another race where the start went wrong for Marquand as the 4yo was squeezed out at the start and couldn’t get into his stride and never looked likely to threaten the runaway leader Quinault who is back for more on Tuesday.
Looking through the race, it is clear from well over 2f out that Marquand had accepted defeat and those close to him the runner up Room Service and third placed Poborus where both vigorously ridden and beaten just over a length. York is a course at which Quinault excels and he won’t get the easy lead assisted by a strong tail wind that he got at York.
The Lennox being a Group 2 will be tougher than York with proven winners at the level and higher in Audience, Kinross and the 3yo Jonquil in the line up.
This will be ran at an extreme pace but the form of Lake Forest when beating Lazzat in Australia is the best on offer. The yard will be very keen to add more Group race victory’s to their roll call this season, which is some way short of previous years and i am prepared to give the normally ultra tough Lake Forest another chance. Drawn wide he will be held up and hopefully follow the path of Castle Cove in the opener to swoop fast and late down the outside for victory,
Recommended Bet 1pt ew Lake Forest 2.30 Goodwood Tuesday 7/1 Corals
Finally at Goodwood Mahra’s Love will be backed to complete a hat trick in the Class 3 fillies handicap at 4.55
*Sean D Bowen has been booked and he has a good record for the yard with 1 winner from 2 rides and this improving filly is put in at about the right price of 13/2. Marquand though can do 8-9 so its something of a mystery,
- Marquand now replaces Sean D Bowen
I missed her at York when she got the run of the race and she is up 6lb in a better race. I doubt she will be allowed an uncontested lead.
There are two particularly well handicapped fillies in the line up in the shape of the Gosden trained Zgharta and Ralph Becketts Dash of Azure and having missed the York gamble will watch again on Tuesday without an interest.
No recommended Bet
The ‘lads’ at Coolmore seem to be playing fun and games with punters this month. The declaration of Scandinavia for the Goodwood Cup at 3.05 whilst great for our bet on Merchant in Thursday’s Gordon Stakes as most thought that was his intended next race, poses a dilemma as he faces stable mate Illinois the odds on favourite.
I wanted to back Scandinavia in whatever race he contested and would have backed him to beat Merchant in the Gordon Stakes. He is 9/2 with Bet 365 3/1 generally with Ryan Moore confirmed on Illinois who is weak in the market at 6/5, having drifted from 8/11.
There are 8 runners – lets hope they all stand their ground. I think the 3yo who gets 14lb weight for age is a potential staying superstar and cannot let him go off at a price he may never be again.
Recommended Bet 1pt ew Scandinavia 9/2 Bet 365 3.05 Goodwood
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