Monday ‘expect the unexpected.’

A better week last week but still typical of the month where the narrow defeats of Brazilian Belle and Bullet Point combined with the rides on Molten Sea and Luminaire reducing the positive returns.

Onto the final week of July and if someone had asked me for a price at the start of the season for odds on Crown of Oaks running in a class 4 £5,000 handicap at Ayr nearing the end of July the minimum i would have offered was 100/1 probably nearer 500/1 would have been more accurate.

What is much less surprising is two horses yet to win this season, purely through being given poor rides by Cieren Fallon, look to get off the mark in the same race.

Hornsea Bay on what he has shown at Epsom and even at Doncaster last time out when not placed too challenge, would be a good bet here.

However, Crown of Oaks was considered a serious Group horse going into this season and having been gelded and because of his two failures in novice events makes his handicap debut off a mark of 79. He was entered in Premier handicaps in Ireland but didn’t take up the option. The yard produced a complete blot on the handicap last week at this track with Almeraq who won by 5L at 2/1.

It is extremely possible that Crown of Oaks will do the same and then head to York for a Class 2 handicap at the big August meeting.

Unlike Almeraq there is a question mark as he could be just one of those morning glories that will never do it on the track but if he runs anywhere near to his potential the mark of 79 is very very low.

In the last three seasons Haggas has sent 8 runners to Ayr 5 have won 2 were second and the other Montassib was 5th in the Ayr Gold Cup

The betting will be highly informative and i don’t think the bookmakers will take any risks, although he could drift near the off. Whatever happens, I will confirm in the morning the betting plans

Another Windsor card and thankfully although the yard sends two I don’t see any need to get involved as neither horse has shown sufficient on the course to; in the case of Art Lover in the 6.00 suggest he can beat some very well bred rivals, or Finalise in the 6.30 to merit what will be very short odds.

Just one point of note about Saturday and the defeat of Another Abbot by Novamay. In my preview i did mention the danger she posed to the Haggas runner but never could I have imagined she would drift at one point to 10/1 with Another Abbot into 11/8.

Novamay produced a very quick time for the grade and despite being set for another weight rise I don’t think she has stopped winning yet. Another Abbot paid the price for chasing the pace she set and didn’t run as badly as it looked.

Recommended Bet 2pt win Crown of Oaks 4.05 Ayr