The clerk of the course will be praying that the unexpected forecast of ‘light rain’ on Tuesday morning is accurate because the South Downs have a record of light rain turning into serious downpours. On already watered ground it could turn the five day meeting into a layers bonanza.
In the hope that the weather forecast for once is accurate, the first day offers punters several opportunities to take an early lead over the bookies.
Race 1 at 1.20 has already been covered and our bet on Castle Cove at 4/1 looks good value. I see no reason to go any further detail, other than to state that any rain would not be to his detriment.
The Vintage Stakes at 1.55 looks a terrific contest with the big reputations of Dorset, Humidity and Zavateri on the line, with Andab and Do or Do Not also adding spice to the tasty dish.
From an ideal draw in stall 2 Dorset and Ryan Moore will have a tactical edge over Oisin Murphy on Humidity in stall 10 and Charlie Bishop on Zavateri in 6, which will mean he will have to come around both of his market rivals which look sure to be up with the pace. The race could be set up for Do or Do Not who will be able to lie up closer to the pace over 7f and looks the value at 8/1 as he will definitely improve for going up in trip.
However, i am tired of pundits claiming Ed Walker’s horses are in great form , yes he had a purple patch in June with his listed class horses but generally his win to runners ratio is way below what he would expect. His current strike rate this month is 6% compared to 23% in July 24 and 16% in July 23.
Any of the front 3 in the market could all be Group 1 horses in waiting so it is a race to watch for the future.
The Group 2 Lennox stakes at 2.30 will be seriously impacted by the amount of rain that falls. Based on what liked likely to be fast ground i had an interest in Lake Forest at 7/1, but with rain in the forecast i was able to cash out without a loss. If the ground is fast i can always go in nearer to post time. He won’t run if there is any significant rain. That will suit Kinross who has a great record in this race and will be suited by any rain.
However, for Ed Walker read Ralph Beckett who is having an awful season. Every time he gets a winner to suggest the yard is about to hit form he has two or three well fancied horses run poorly.
His strike rate this month is 6 winners from just 38 runners. In 2024 it was 12 from 95 and in 2023 22 from 75. The lack of runners suggests all is not well and although he must surely pick up sooner, rather later I have been saying that since Royal Ascot !
With the uncertainty about the ground its another race I will now watch and enjoy without financial interest.
A great renewal of the Goodwood Cup sees the new generation of Coolmore stayers looking to succeed to the throne abdicated by Kyprios. With Trawlerman, an absentee, the English challenge looks second rate.
The unexpected challenge to Illinois by stablemate Scandinavia is intriguing and in receipt of a stone on the evidence of his performance at Newmarket gives him every chance of overturning the favourite even though Ryan Moore sticks with the 4yo.
Its probably not a race to bet in but Bet 365 made a gaff offering Scandinavia at 9/2 ew 3 places and it was to big to ignore. I think he can win here and then take out the St Leger en route to becoming the no 1 staying horse in Europe in 2026.
The 5f sprint at 3.45 will be hugely dependent on the ground conditions. If it is good ground or faster i think Redorange from stall 18 can reverse Ascot form with Adrestia now he is potentially drawn closer to his rival near to the favoured stands rail.
Shagraan is the other runner with form that rates ahead of the rest of the field who look stretched to compete at this Class 2 level.
Not a race in which i have a strong opinion but Redorange was extremely well fancied at Royal Ascot and I know connections felt that ,drawn better, he would have won. Maybe compensation awaits on Tuesday
In the 4.20 the 2yo Maiden – Wathnan Racing make no secret that they target this meeting and Naval Light looks banker material for the top form Karl Burke yard to give the Qatar based owners group their first winner of the Qatar Festival.
I suspect the early 13/8 will look good at post time, upped to 6f and from a good enough draw in 10 the son of Havana Grey has missed loads of opportunities to wait for this race and he could will be the subject of a serious gamble.
The 4.55 presents the Haggas trained Mahra’s Love with a chance to complete a quick fire hat trick. Marquand takes the ride after Sean D Bowen was originally booked due to 8’9 being close to Marquand’s minimum riding weight.
That suggests the yard believe she has little in hand and given a 6lb rise following her York win in lower grade I think, although she is best drawn of the fancied runners, she will get run down by a couple of better class fillies. Zgharta and Dash of Azure look the pick.
Finally, if you need to get out in the lucky last at 5.30 i suggest you may be better off waiting for Day 2. A fillies handicap over 6f on this track is not a betting medium and hopefully we will be well in front by then and ready for Day 2.
Chrysalis Consortium 
Leave a comment