A majority of Somerville Lodge runners in Maiden and Novice stakes races are subject of hefty market support but there are a few rules unique to the Haggas yard that have stood us in good stead, although sometimes it is very difficult to resist backing such well bred horses in weak races .
Once they get a handicap mark it is more straight forward but en route to that point it can get messy.
Rule 1 is simple – Never back a Haggas horse on debut even if it appears to be subject of market support.
Rule 2 if the horse runs very green on debut and doesn’t finish off the race don’t back it on its second race unless it runs at certain tracks where the yard targets winners. Only very rarely back horses on second outing at less than 7/4.
Rule 3 After two runs – there is a good chance it will be sent to contest a race where it will be a short price probably too short to back. Only very rarely back maidens at less than 7/4.
Rule 4 If after three runs it remains a maiden be cautious. There could be a lightly raced rival that will improve past the maiden. The longer it remains a maiden the greater the caution unless the track is targeted by the yard. Only very rarely back maidens at less than 7/4.
Recent examples:
Rule 2 Finalise 4/9 2nd Still very green didn’t act on ground. Marquand didn’t excel.
Rule 2 Art Lover 8/1 – 7/4 finished 2nd but well beaten
Rule 1 Golden Horse Supported into 3/1 on debut 3rd beaten over 3L
Rule 4 Sir William nine race maiden heavily backed into 5/4 3rd beaten over 4L
Lets look at Bets we had where we made exceptions to the rules:
Rule 2 Berlinetta York 4/1 – 11/4 2nd race after promising debut – York 2yo races targeted but didn’t progress from debut finished 5th beaten over 3L
Rule 2 Crown Imperial 6/1 – 7/2 2nd race after promising debut didn’t progress well beaten
Rule 2 Brotherhood of Man 7/1 2nd race ran well after promising debut in York 2yo race targeted by yard. Ran well 3rd
Rule 4 Magical Idea 5/2 – 2/1 3 raced maiden in handicap Very slowly away lost 20L finished 2nd.
Winning Bets where we made exception to rules.
Rule 4 Another Abbot 5 race maiden but through no fault of his own narrowly beaten in two races in effect winner without penalty ( Won 9/1)
Which leads us onto Ripon on Tuesday and the 4 race maiden Abloom in the 8.10 and the 6 race maiden Silver Chamber in the handicap at 7.05. Both come with a Rule 4 warning.
The yard will be desperate for both fillies to win and increase their paddock value at a track they target.
Silver Chamber improved her Timeform rating by 20pts since going handicapping and should have won at Windsor last time when she was beaten only 2L into 2nd despite pulling her way through the first half of the race . The race was won by the 6yo Neema and the form looks average.
Abloom improved each time in her first 3 races but then took a small backward step at Newmarket when well beaten behind Azinaya who won a class 4 handicap off a mark of 84. She was ridden with restraint allowing the very well backed winner an easy lead and then stayed on at one pace to finish 2nd.
Apart from a strange Sunday last August when the yard were expecting to win with all three of their runners and all were well beat , Ripon is a happy hunting ground for Somerville Lodge. 3 of the last 5 runners in maidens have won
With no pace in either contest I think Cieren Fallon will set out to make all the running on both fillies at a track where pacesetters are greatly favoured.
Its risky because both fillies are possibly entering last chance saloon but in maiden and novice races at the track the yard is 12 from 20 in July and August since 2015 which makes Abloom in effect an odds on chance. In handicaps with 3yo’s they are 33% over the same period but the last 5 have lost which suggests Silver Chamber is due to win.
That makes the 9/4 Abloom and 10/3 Silver Chamber decent value and worth a 1pt win bet on each. We are reliant on Fallon making the running on both and not trying to get them to settle when there will be no pace.
Recommended Bets
1pt win Silver Chamber 7.05 Ripon BOG 10/3
1pt win Abloom 8.05 Ripon BoG 9/4
Chrysalis Consortium 
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