The roller coaster that is betting on horse racing has never been better illustrated than the roller coaster course of Goodwood. The skill of race riding and judgement of pace is key critical which also applies to race reading and punting.
What impacts both more than any other factor is ground conditions. The forecast rain on Thursday could well put a dampener on the whole meeting.
The weather radar seems to suggest its touch and go if the rain hits the course or misses. If it arrives, its going to play into the bookies hands as the two 3yo handicaps that top and tail the card have both attracted improving horses but very few with proven form on Soft Ground.
The change of fortune can also impact training establishments at a moments notice. At 1.30 on Wednesday the malaise of the Beckett yard looked set in when Sing Us A Song was well beaten, just two hours later, two of his fillies dead heated in a Group 3 and he won a Group 1 with Qirat at 150/1 !!
Generally the results on Day 2 really confirmed our decision to not get involved, with the Wathnan team having a dreadful meeting with two of their best chances very well beaten.
Despite the potential of rain we are committed, to our Ante Post bet on Merchant.
The whole make up of the St Leger changed with the brilliant win of Scandinavia in the Goodwood Cup and i expect the market to move again if Merchant takes out the Group 3 Gordon Stakes.
We have already advised a 3pt Bet Ante Post at 2/1 for the Goodwood race due off at 2.30.
This is a step up in class but its weak for the grade and i fully expect the 3yo to continue his march up the ranks. Although he will have to put up an extra -ordinary display to threaten Scandinavia’s position in the St Leger market, who we are already on at 5/1.
The biggest threat will be the forecast of heavy rain before and during racing- Merchant is unproven on anything other than Good, Good to Firm. On breeding being by Teofilo he has a chance of coping with it and his full sister won on heavy ground.
Recommended Bet already advised Ante Post 3pt win Merchant 2/1
In the 1.20 Wathnan Racing owned Best Secret has form on soft ground in France and proven stamina. His price of 10/3 looks to have factored in the weather conditions. The Haggas runner High Degree is a lovely improving colt who is well up to winning off his opening mark of 93 but is totally unproven on soft ground and can only be a watching brief if the rain arrives as expected. Best Secret has been backed into a very short price presumably in the assumption that the rain will fall.
No Bet Recommended
There is a worse situation in the finale at 5.30 where not a single runner in the maximum field of 20 can boast form on ground softer than good.
This is a lottery and once again the Haggas runner Sea Force fitted for the first time with cheek pieces is more than capable of winning off his mark of 88 , whether he can act on soft ground is pure guesswork if the rain stays away or is insignificant i want to back him and will confirm once the meeting begins.
Further update Weds PM
Whilst its great to have a bet at this meeting – its not great giving money to the bookmakers and if the rain arrives as forecast around 10.00am and lasts through the afternoon, the comments made for the two 3yo handicaps apply to every other race. It is a question of waiting to check out the ground conditions before getting involved.
Therefore no other bets recommended for Thursday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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