August looks set to be a particularly profitable month with any number of Somerville Lodge based horses now primed and with sufficient racetrack experience to progress and win several races before the end of the season.
I have earmarked over 20 and four run on Saturday.
Treasure Time 4.55 Goodwood
My biggest error of the season was placing a 3pt win bet on the 4yo on his seasonal debut. My reasoning was based on him being specifically prepared for the Royal Hunt Cup for which he was strongly fancied and balloted out. He reappeared two weeks later at Sandown and i missed the fact that he was now being prepared for another day and the Sandown race was a prep.
He was never placed to challenge and clearly ridden for the future, the race designed to blow away the cobwebs after over 9 months off the track.
The ‘other day’ was to be the Golden Mile at Goodwood but that was scuppered by a combination of 37mm of rain falling in a couple of hours and a draw in the car park!
He was withdrawn but rerouted to a 9f handicap just 24 hours later, over a trip he should excel at this season. With warm sunny breezy weather the ground will be drying out and nearer to good by race time of 5.35. The draw though has still not be kind – stall 12 plenty wide enough.
There is a chance that York maybe the main target but he is a horse who will excel at trips around 10f and I have a strong feeling the aim is to win here and then all eyes on a tilt at the Cambridgeshire.
That draw means we can’t go maximum 3pt win as he is going to need a degree of fortune coming through runners inside the final furlong. He was unlucky at the track last season. He is as tough and tenacious a horse as you will find and is very much a horse to follow.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Treasure Time 4.55 Goodwood Saturday
Term of Endearment 2.30 Goodwood
This 6yo mare won the Lily Langtry last year and in a race that looks very similar in terms of quality she can repeat the victory. Last season she outbattled her rivals despite many thinking that the Good to Firm ground that day was against her.
Despite the win It may well have been the case as she didn’t appear to let herself down on fast ground at Sandown last time out. the make up of this race looks ideal with no other pacesetters and drawn in stall 1 .
Marquand will have the chance to dictate his own fractions, something that he excels in and having been nabbed on the line at York in May again probably due to the fast ground, he will be determined not to let it happen on her favoured ground on Saturday.
She was purchased for a small fortune last Autumn from Henri De Bromheads yard and will soon be sent to Australia to take up stud duties. Another Group 2 on her CV will add to her value. A repeat victory in the Lily Langtry will go along way to justifying her price tag and attract the Asian based stallions.
Already Advised 1pt win Term of Endearment 4/1
Elmonjed 3.05 The Stewards Cup
We got it right waiting for the 4th outing of this 4yo before backing the gelding last weekend at York. Backed from 7/1 into 9/2 he showed he was better than ever bursting through a gap and then idiling in front but always going to win.
Jim Crowley jumped off and immediately recommended going for the Stewards Cup this weekend. Last year he followed up a win with another and has shown enough good form on ground with cut in it to not make that an issue.
There is pace on both rails with the fresh ground in use on the far side often negating the advantage that sometimes high numbers have at the track. He is drawn low in stall 8 and will be able to track the pace of the front runners in stall 2, 4 and 10.
With doubts about the draw bias this is never a race to place big stakes but well worth 1pt win at the current odds around 7/1
Recommended Bet 1pt win Elmonjed 3.05 Goodwood
Other Haggas runners on Saturday.
In the opener at Goodwood in the 1.20 on Saturday the yard sends out the front two in the market in Al Aasy and Candleford.
Al Aasy has gone off favourite 12 times in his career winning 6 and losing 6 I have backed him twice and not collected !
He is not a horse i can get right and whilst everything looks perfect for him on Saturday that is also the case for Arabian Crown a Goldophin horse that has been waiting for cut in the ground. Of the two I would favour Arabian Crown but Al Aasy is one of those horses that if I back to win he loses – if i back against him he wins, therefore:
No Bet Recommended
In the 1.55 Sam Hawkens is a horse that has done us two big turns this season and he aims for the hat trick in this Class 2 handicap.
However, he is up in grade, up in trip and on a career high mark of 92. It looks tough, especially with French Duke looking to go back to back in the race having being especially prepared to complete the double.
It is more than possible the opening three races at Goodwood on Saturday could provide 3 winners that won the same races in 2024.
No Bet Recommended
Unusually the yard only has runners at one meeting Goodwood on Saturday and the team is completed by the promising Headmaster who makes his handicap debut in the Class 2 handicap at 4.55 ridden by Miral Iwato as Fallon and Marquand are unable to get down to 8’7.
Well drawn in stall 6 the 3yo has attracted support from 28/1 into 16/1 but this is very tough and our rule this week of not backing handicap debutants from the yard in Class 2 races has stood us in good stead, although backing them each way with the extra places would have shown a small profit as they have all ran well without winning.
The gelding is bred to be up to this grade and his dam excelled on soft ground with the 16/1 on offer 1-6 places the colt is worth a small interest.
Recommended Bet 0.5pt ew Headmaster 16/1 Sky Bet 1-6 places.
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