I had a rest day yesterday but two pro gamblers i have the utmost respect for told me they each had one of their biggest bets of the season on Sunday. One on Celandine at Chester the other on January at Deauville. I indulged myself in a small double the two.
Both uttered the immortal words ‘ this can’t get beat’. it certainly looked to be the case as entering the final furlong both looked poised to go past inferior front runners but then Shoemark took the ‘hostage to fortune line’ down the inside at Chester when he had plenty of space to go outside the weakening leader, and for some reason January just didn’t or wouldn’t go past Fallen Angel.
Both races were ran within 10 minutes of each other and summed up just how hard it can be to win even when on well fancied heavily backed favourites with the race being run to suit approaching the final stages.
Which leads me onto Sir William in the 5.10 the opener at Windsor. The early market has the Class 6 winner with a 6lb penalty Calibos as 5/4 favourite with Sir William next best in a field of five at 2/1
Calobos did win impressively over course and distance but was given an easy from the front and got onto the favoured stands rail to win as he liked. The highest rated horse in the field was off 61 . It was in effect a 0-61 maiden handicap.
Sir William on the other hand is a 9 race maiden himself, however he has been sent off in the first two in the market on 6 of those occasions in races ranging from Class 2 to 4 and on one occasion Class 5. Those races have been ran against horses that now compete regularly at Class 2 and 3 levels racing off marks in the high 80’s.
Dropped down to a mark of 72 Sir William only has to give 5lb to Calabos. On most of his form he has between 8 and 16lb in hand of this field . In theory ‘This can’t get beat’ However he has been disappointing on more than one occasion and is dropped down in trip as he failed to stay 12f last time at Doncaster.
That Phrase ‘This Can’t Get Beat’ should always come with a warning – ‘if ridden to best advantage.’
Marquand must surely keep it simple in the 5 runner field set the fractionals and allow the horses class and stamina at the trip to tell. His last two runs at this trip give him a huge class edge. He has been ridden in all his runs like he is a good horse able to win from off the pace. For a variety of reasons it hasn’t worked but on Monday ridden to best advantage, close or on the pace he should win this easily in the way Silver Chamber and Earthwatch did for us last week
It should be a 3pt but because I have a degree of uncertainty about how he will be ridden and possible how genuine he is but they would surely have gone for blinkers if that was considered an issue i have though downgraded to a 2pt win Bet only.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Sir William currently 2/1 on offer.
The yard also run First Principle in the 7.53 race . He will go off at long odds on probably 1-10. He threw away a race at Thirsk when 4/9 on but that was purely through greenness and he remains a horse with a big future.
No Bet Recommended
Chrysalis Consortium 
Leave a comment