Our bet Wednesday was backed from 7/2 into 7/4 but there is always a risk on downhill tracks that they go off at a pace more suited to a 5f dash and when Ideal Guest refused to settle off that sort of speed – it was curtains. It will a long drive back to East Yorkshire for the Bethell’s. Onto Thursday..
Already Advised Hornsea Bay 11/4-9/4 8.30 Chepstow 3pt win
The Haggas yard send three runners to post on Thursday beginning at Nottingham in the 4.20 where Day of Grace has her third start and will then get a handicap mark.This is not the strongest fillies Maiden but there are two or three in the field of 11 that have run to a higher mark and on balance I feel it will be best to wait until she goes handicapping before we get involved.
No Bet Recommended.
Next up Back to Black makes his debut in the Sandown 6.15.He is a well bred colt with a superb pedigree whose dam won first time out but you all know the golden rule with Haggas debutants.!!
No Bet Recommended
Finally Muhaajim makes his handicap debut in the Sandown 7.15 – off an ok looking mark of 84 he will have his supporters.
The Haggas record with 3yo Class 4 and 5 handicappers in August at Sandown, going off in the front 3 in the market, is 50%.
At the last meeting anything that got onto the far rail was able to go on to win, due to a fresh strip of ground being opened. With the brilliant Oisin Murphy in stall 3 aboard Desert Shadow he will nick that position from the gates and play catch me if you can with the rest of the field.
There is though a far bigger danger lurking in the form of the John and Thady Gosden trained Dangerman, who improved out of all recognition last time out to win over course and distance . The speed figure he recorded was more akin to a horse rated in the 100’s rather than the 80 he can still run off today.
The handicapper clearly thinks there was an element of luck to the performance as he only put him up 3lb for a 3L win. The form has been boosted by the runner up who ran well in a hot Class 3 handicap at Goodwood last week.
However, they went very hard from the front last time at Sandown and I am sure Oisin Murphy will ride this race at a much slower pace which will count against Dangerman but not Muhaajim.
On breeding 10f looks to be the furthest the Haggas colt wants to go and the fact this trip and this course has been chosen for his first start in a handicap does suggest he may not be overly blessed with pace.
On balance with a probable track bias I think it is best to watch and see. If forced to have a bet i would just favour Dangerman.
No Bet Recommended
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