Another Saturday thriller…

Whatever else happens the 2025 Diary of a Season publication will be highlighted by the thrilling events that have surrounded our Saturday gambles on More Thunder.

Firstly at Newmarket on Guineas day landing a 3pt bet when getting up in the dying strides to win by a short head when looking booked for 2nd. Next time out in the Wokingham somehow failing to get up to win, when Tom Marquand got his whip caught in the reins and losing by a head. Then in the Bunbury Cup when looking certain to be beaten, managing to put his head down on the line to win by a nose.

This Saturday’s venture into Group 2 is fully justified and it does appear that he has everything in his favour, including the price. In the Bunbury Cup he was sent off at 11/10 reflecting the fact that he was clearly a Group horse in a handicap.

Despite winning he didn’t run to his best that day, but when asked about his preparation for the Hungerford William Haggas described it as being ‘perfect’, which is very bold indeed and suggests a great deal of stable confidence.

A lot of pundits will oppose him because he is favourite and has the lowest official rating in the race. However, in a contest where sustained speed will be the crucial factor, he is 4lb clear on speed ratings. His final 3f time in the infamous Wokingham defeat gives him every chance of being a Group 1 horse, he completed those 3F quicker than the Group 1 winner Lazzat on the same day and the time was many lengths better than Spy Chief in the Jersey stakes also on the same day.

He can get beat, if he underperforms or a rival puts in a massive career best as was the case with Lazzat at Deauville last weekend. The French horse was 1/2 on in that race which reflected the chance of that upset occurring.

At 10/3 and 5/1 this represents outstanding value and despite the doubters i think he will be very well backed on the day.

Whilst I will settle for another nail biting win i think it may well be more clear cut and he can progress to contest Group 1 races as this season moves towards the Autumn.

Already Advised 2pt win 5/1 Ante Post Plus 2pt win 10/3 Thursday PM

Haggas only sends three others to post on Saturday I am certain the fast ground causing a degree of caution. Its an approach i certainly concur with and I am slightly surprised that the impressive Binhareer who landed a lovely touch for us at Ayr has been declared for the Grey Horse handicap the 2.05 at Newmarket.

All his form has been with cut in the ground and was the reason he went up to Ayr for his victory last time out. He may cope with the fast ground but he was put into the market at a silly price of 7/4 and I am sure will drift to at least 3/1.

That doubt over the ground though is sufficient for me not to get involved and he could possibly be pulled out on the day.

No Bet Recommended

Candleford takes his chance in the opener the 1.50 at Newbury but i think the 3yo’s Furthur and Pinhole, hold the edge. Furthur (it is spelt correctly) was given a rare poor ride by Oisin Murphy at Newmarket but that was a race as it turned out he had no chance of winning up against Scandinavia. The form of his 2nd place finish at Royal Ascot would be good enough to win this and he looks the value at 7/1.

No Bet Recommended

In the Newbury 3.00 Lou Lou’s Gift has only been dropped a couple of pound for two disappointing runs this season and it looks likely she will need to drop down another 3 or 4lb before she can be competitive. On the other hand the veteran Jumby a former course and distance winner of the Hungerford Stakes is down 8lb this season to 94 and looks on a good mark to win for the first time in over 2 years when successful off a mark of 109.

No Bet Recommended.

It was nice that we correctly had the No Bet Recommendations on the two well backed horses from the yard on Thursday that got beat. There are no bets advised on Friday and I will provide an update Saturday morning from 8.00am, advising on any other investments on the day on horses trained away from Somerville Lodge

Diary of a Season updated 15th August.