There is a real sense coming from the Somerville Lodge soundings that the yard will be more than happy to return from the Ebor meeting with one winner and from the entries it is easy to concur with that view.
Yes, there might be one that comes out of nowhere and wins at a big price, but after 25 years of following the yard, it’s pretty clear it’s tough to pick those ahead of time.
We tried with a couple of these ‘dark horses’ at Royal Ascot and Goodwood without any joy. In the case of ‘Headmaster‘ backed from 28/1 into 2/1 it still failed miserably.
An example of a horse that won unexpectedly at a big price was Lou Lou’s Gift on Saturday. She was given an uncontested lead of 2 or 3 lengths at Newbury and just held on in a photo. Had she been taken on in the first few furlongs i doubt she would have been placed. The cards fell right for her, however it probably reduces the chances of another big priced horse from the yard getting the luck in running they will need at York.
Now we are well into the second half of the season with a significant ROI assured there are ample opportunities to increase the fund without being overly speculative on horses which go to post, more in hope than expectation.
Or like with the three well-backed horses from the yard on Thursday and Friday last week that ended up losing — we advised no bets — these are just runners that don’t offer good value.
On Wednesday the first day of the meeting, the three entries, Arabian Force, Santorini Star and Magic Stone in the Nursery all look to have each way chances at best and will not be recommended.
On Thursday probably the yards best chance of a win comes with the ultra tough Bullet Point in the Clipper handicap but much will depend on the draw before investment advice can be given.
The day’s other entries Wonder Star and Aeolion in the Galtres Stakes and Jewelry and Purple Rainbow in the fillies handicap look at this stage to have only small ew chances.
Friday if Wonder Star goes for the 1m 2f fillies handicap due off at 4.10, her handicap mark of 84 makes her just about the best handicapped runner from the yard at the meeting. Her front running style will be suited to York in what looks a weak race.
She is 5/1 in the Ante Post markets which will be shorter if she is declared but that entry in the Galtres Stakes, where they may decide to go for black type, is a worry that stops me backing her before the declaration stage. At the moment if she goes for the handicap and is drawn low she will probably be my best bet of the meeting.
Consecrated and Orionis are also entered but the combination of trip and fast ground make them unlikely runners
Also on Friday Sea Force, Headmaster and High Degree are entered in the Mile Handicap for 3yo’s at 5.35. This is the York version of the Britannia Handicap and so much will depend on the draw and ground conditions. Although, looking through the entries it looks unlikely that any of the three will have more than an each way chance. With the conqueror of Bullet Point, Fearnot catching the eye among the entries.
Diary of Season York York Dante Meeting Day 1,2,3 Preview.
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