Although my initial impression was that the yard will do well to land more than one prize over the 4 days , now that the declarations are out there seems to be a more positive view about the York Ebor festival.
Day 1 starts with the attempt of Arabian Force on the Group 2 Great Voltegeur stakes over 12f at 3.00. He is a substitute for Merchant who waits for a race in France in order to have more recovery time from Goodwood.
The 3yo was desperately unlucky not to the win the Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton last time out, getting trapped in a pocket, and beaten a nose after he got his run too late.
I am getting vibes that there is a vulnerability over the long odds on favourite Lambourn and it would not surprise me if the Derby winner went off close to odds against. That would leave the door open for any of the other six. I said i would resist speculative each way bets on Haggas horses at this meeting so will watch with out investing.
No Bet Recommended
Those positive vibes from Somerville Lodge probably grew when the declarations were seen for the 2m Class 2 handicap at 4.10. This is a poor race for the grade and Santorini Star who was considered worthy of an Ebor entry could outclass this field.
Considered to be disappointing in a listed race at Ireland last time out, she was dropped out last and seemed to lose interest before staying on to finish 4th.
A repeat of that form however, maybe good enough to win this. Several from the race have gone on to run well in Group races and Marquand is certain not to let her get too far back.
The expectation is that she now needs 2m and quite simply there is no point in her running in this race unless they thought she could win this valuable pot.
Haggas has only ran 3 horses in Class 3 Handicaps at York with 1 winner and 2 3rd placed finishers. All three were heavily backed. This is his first runner in this Class 2 race at the Ebor meeting and has to be noteworthy from a yard driven by habit.
Given the owners, I suspect she will be heavily backed again – she usually is-and I have taken the 5/1 to 1pt available on Monday and will have another 1pt win BoG Wednesday Morning.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Santorini Star 5/1 + 1pt win BoG Wednesday morning 4.10 York
In the 4.45 the 5f fillies sprint Novamay trained by Michael Dods has been priced up at 18/1 which is a mistake. The drop back in trip will suit this rapidly improving 3yo and the way she demolished the next time out Haggas winner Another Abbot at Windsor was hugely impressive.
Having said i would avoid speculative bets on the Haggas horses this week, the 18/1 ew 1-5 places is simply too big not to have an interest on the flying Dods filly on whom Rhys Elliott will take off a valuable 5lb allowance.
0.5pt ew Novamay 4.45 York 18/1 1-5 places William Hill
Further updates to follow Tuesday PM
Chrysalis Consortium 
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